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Captain Ewave Monday Update

March 2, 2015

Gold:

Wave ^ii^ in gold finally ended this week, as expected.

We should now be in a very powerful wave ^iii^ rally that has the possibility of gold running to above the $1400 level.  We are very encouraged by the wave structure shown on the attached 30 Min intraday chart.

As you can see, this market is subdividing with rallies consisting of impulsive wave structures and setback consisting of corrective wave structure. This is almost certainly a nice bull market leg! 

In the very short term, we are not sure that wave @ii@ of !iii! ended at 1210.60, of has a little more downside before ending.

A break above 1219.00/1220.00, should see gold start to really accelerate higher.

Crude:

We have not had any trades lately, as we have been struggling a bit with trying to determine how the continuing wave iv correction is unfolding.

Still, crude has been good to the Captain and his crew, over the last 3 trades!

As the attached 240 Min Intraday Chart indicates the first (a), (b), (c) pattern was pretty standard, running from 44.22 to 54.22. It is consisted of an irregular correction, as wave (b) went below the start of the move. I

t is the second (a), (b), (c) pattern that has been more difficult. So our current thinking is that wave (x) ended at 47.38. Our second (a), (b), (c) pattern looks to have completed wave (a) at 53.95 and possibly wave (b) at 47.84. This (a), (b), (c) pattern appears to be flat type correction, where wave (b) comes to within 10% of the start of the move(47.38).

Note that wave –c- of (b) is a diagonal triangle. We believe that it ended at 47.84, but only a break of the upper blue trend line will confirm our thinking. So if our second wave (b) ended at 47.84, we should now be starting our second wave (c) rally.

Projections are 54.41 and 58.47.

Our trading strategy was to go long 4 positions on the Sunday night opening, risking to: 46.50                                                                                                                                

USDX:

The USDX complete our wave .iv. triangle this week, pretty much as we expected at 94.07 and we are now rallying in our wave .v. thrust to at least the wave .v. high of 95.85.

Within our wave .v. thrust we look to have already completed wave *i* at 95.41 and wave *ii* and 94.87. If that is correct then we are now heading higher in wave *iii* with projections for its end at 96.21 or 97.04, as shown on the attached 120 Min Intraday Chart..

In the longer term you may recall that we have a projection for the end of all of wave .v. at 97.38.

As wave .v. unfolds, we will be looking to provide some recommendations on where to short likely later this week. Our minimum target for wave .v. is the wave .iii. high of 95.85. 

NG:

We took profits on our long positions and also became short this week at 2.96, as it appears that wave -iv- ended at 3.04/3.05. You can see on the attached Daily NG Chart that wave -iv- rallied in an .a., .b. triangle , .c. pattern from 2.57 to 3.05.

Note that wave -iv- retraced between 23.6 and 38.2% of the previous wave -iii- drop. We are now falling in wave -v- to likely finally complete all of wave ii of C. Our minimum target for wave -v- is the wave -iii- low of 2.57.

There is still an outside chance that wave -iv- did not end at 3.04/3.05 and the current drop is a wave .x., within wave -iv-.

If you look at the attached 30 Min Intraday Chart, NG is falling in an incomplete impulsive wave structure. Within wave -v- it looks likes wave .i. and .ii are complete at 2.84 and 2.97 respectively.

We are still working on wave .iii. and expect that wave to end near our projected level of 2.64, before we rally in wave .iv. and then fall one more time in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v-. We plan to remain short until we hit the end of wave -v-.    

GDX:

HUI/GDX

The HUI/GDX continued higher very nicely as we are now seemingly well underway in our wave -v- of (iii) rally.

As wave -v- is an impulsive leg we are expecting it to consist of five waves, with a target of at least the wave -iii- high of 23.22, but based on previous mentioned projections we are looking for a rally to the 29/30 level.

There is no indication of an end to our first wave .i. rally within wave -v-. We show graphically on the attached 60 Min chart waves .i. and .ii., but at the moment we do not see an end to wave .i..

We are long GDX, risking to 20.20!

The Captain and Crew say “Live Long and Prosper” (with gold stocks) and we say goodbye to one of the great ones: http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2015/02/27/leonard-nimoy-spock-star-trek-dead-at-83/

Thank-you

Captain Ewave & Crew!

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

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