Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, SP500 And

Gold

Short-Term Update

During last week’s holiday shorten session gold was higher, reaching 1164.30, and then on Friday of last week we had a selloff. In the overnight session that sell-off continued as we reached a low of 1146.50, at the time that this Post was being written.

The rally in gold last week suggested to us that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 1124.50 high and that we have started our wave -iii- rally. On the Intraday Chart The drop from 1164.30 to the current low of 1146.50 looks like a completed 3 wave correction of the rally from 1124.50 to 1164.30.

If this observation is correct then at minimum gold is heading back to at least the 1164.30 high.

Now that full trading is resembled we will give this market another day or so to confirm our current thinking.

Once we are sure that all of wave –ii- is complete at the 1124.50 low we will provide projections for the end of wave -iii-.

Longer-Term Update

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.50 low. If that is true then 2017 will see gold rally sharply in wave -iii-. We will keep our add long trade in place for another day or so, but we doubt it will get filled.

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00, and plan to add more at 1120.00!

S&P500 

Short-Term Update

The S&P was generally weaker last week, but in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 16 points at the time that this Post was being written.  

The S&P may now be showing signs of the end of wave -iii-, but we still are not ready to confirm that all of wave -iii- is compete at the 2277.53 high.

We will need to give this market another day before we confirm that wave -iv- lower has begun. Projection points do not always work out so we need to warn that we have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave -iii- rally at the current high. Wave -iv- could then start at any time. When wave -iv- begins it could take a number of weeks to unfold.

We could still see one more rally above 2277.53 before all of wave -iii- ends.

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.                                                                                               

Long-Term Update

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2214.81 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

Active Trading Positions: Flat!

GDX

Short-Term Update:

The GDX was higher and with gold last week and on the Daily GDX Chart it looks like we broke above an important downtrend line also.

We are now thinking that all of wave 2 is complete at the 18.68 low and that a sharp wave 3 rally has now begun.

We will need gold to confirm hat its wave -ii- is complete at the 11124.50 low also, for our wave 3 plan to be correct. We will provide projections for the end of wave 3 once we are sure that gold has completed wave -ii-.

Our updated count for wave 2 is:

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;

c:

(i) = 22.50;

(ii) = 25.93;

(iii) = 20.14;

(iv) = 21.74;

(v) = 18.68, if complete to complete all of wave c and wave 2.

Wave 3 rally is now begun.

Long-Term Update

We now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 may now be complete at the 18.68 low also.  

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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