The Gold Market Review

July 11, 2016

Market Update

The Brexit vote was a surprise. However, my alternative scenario for this unlikely event was a bull´s-eye. Gold immediatley spiked sharply higher and met some profit taking around $1,350. Now two weeks later it´s even higher and in a strong uptrend. Gold knows that all these new uncertainties as well as the extremely unstable situation in the financial markets worldwide plus negative real interest rates will force central bankers to print even more money in the coming years.

I continue to believe that precious metals are in a new epic bull market and will protect you against the coming loss of confidence in our fiat money system. But I also believe that probably everything else will move higher too.

The best places to be invested are precious metals (especially silver) & mining stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities and Biotech. I focus on these promising sectors and have some new immidiate buy recommendations today (see portfolio & watchlist).

 If you have followed my advise to buy the last dip in the gold market below $1,210 you should already sit on very nice gains. If you have missed it don´t worry and don't chase this parabolic rally. You will get another chance! Otherwise just let your winnings run.
As I have been saying since December Gold is on the way to $1,500/1,530 – either directly within the coming weeks & months or until spring 2017. On the way to $1,500 we might get one or two more dips. But most importantly $1,500 will be a massive profit taking event and will lead to a huge but short-lived pullback towards $1,250 - $1,300. This will take time of course and is more likely to happen towards 2017. As a reference I recommend to take a look at the recovery from the 2008 low at $680. Back then gold first rallied towards the $1,000 wall and after reaching it retraced nearly 50% of this rally down to $865! In the end it´s always the same: two steps ahead one step back... Patience and a plan will pay off. Fear of missing out instead will create emotions and losses.

The Midas Touch Gold Model bullish since 24th of June

Due to the huge "Brexit" spike my model went into bull mode in the early morning hours of June 24th around $1,310. Since then it has stayed bullish. The model has never been that bullish since its invention!

Compared to my last public report two and a half weeks ago we have the following new bullish signals:
Gold in USD - Daily Chart
Gold Seasonality
Ratio Gold/Oil
Ratio Gold/Commodities 
Gold in $, €, £, ¥
Gold in Indian Rupee
Gold in Chinese Yuan
GDX Goldminers - Daily Chart

The new bearish signals are coming from the sentiment and the US-Dollar:
Gold Sentiment
GDX Goldminers Sentiment
USD - Daily Chart

Right now it will take a gold price below $1,227 to change the super bullish picture! If you want to get more updates on the Midas Touch Gold Model follow me on Facebook.

Gold - A strong Monday and gold will reach $1,415 soon

Since early June gold is posting a massive rally. There are no signs that a short-term top is already in place! Friday´s price action was bullish. Now it takes only one more average to strong day to embed the signal lines of the slow stochastic indicator above 80 and therefore lock in the bullish trend. In that case gold will reach $1,415 within the next one or two weeks. Otherwise a pullback is due as gold and silver have become overbought and sentiment is getting too optimistic. But don´t short this baby bull, please. Everything is possible in this environment. Overall a bull market with a first target at $1,500 is confirmed and we just need to patiently wait again for the next cycle bottom to increase our positions.

Action to take: Buy the VelocityShares 3xLong ETN (UGLD) below $13.00 (be patient, this could take time)

Stop Loss: $10.00

Profit Target: $18.25

Timeframe: 2-9 months

Risk ($3.00) / Reward ($5.25) = 1 : 1,75 (poor ratio)

Position Sizing: Don´t risk more than 1% of your equity

Investors should buy physical gold with both hands if prices move below $1,250 again. As well buy silver below $18,00. Buy both metals until you have at least 10% of your net-worth in physical gold and silver. But do not over expose yourself neither. 25% of your net-worth in precious metals should be the absolute maximum. If you want to be more aggressive put 2/3 into silver and 1/3 into gold.

Long-term personal beliefs (my bias)

Officially Gold is still in a bear market but the big picture has massively improved and the lows are very likely in. Gold was able to push above the Januar 2015 high at $1,307 and we finally looking at a series of higher highs. If this bear is over a new bull-market should push Gold towards $1,500 - $1,530 and Silver towards $25.00 within the next 8-24 months.

My long-term price target for the DowJones/Gold-Ratio remains around 1:1.and 10:1 for the Gold/Silver-Ratio. A possible long-term price target for Gold remains around US$5,000 to US$8,900 per ounce within the next 5-8 years (depending on how much money will be printed..).
 


Fundamentally, as soon as the current bear market is over, Gold should start the final 3rd phase of this long-term secular bull market. 1st stage saw the miners closing their hedge books, the 2nd stage continuously presented us news about institutions and central banks buying or repatriating gold. The coming 3rd and finally parabolic stage will end in the distribution to small inexperienced new traders & investors who will be subject to blind greed and frenzied panic.

Bitcoin could become the "new money" for the digital 21st century. It is free market money but surely politicians and central bankers will thrive to regulate it soon.

If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, gold and bitcoin you can subscribe to my free newsletter here: http://bit.ly/1EUdt2K

© Florian Grummes 2016 all rights reserved

Hohenzollerstrasse 36, 80802 Munich, Germany

Disclaimer & Limitation of Liability

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Florian Grummes, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Grummes's opinions are his own and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Grummes is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in the Midas Touch. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Grummes recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Florian Grummes is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Grummes's opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction. The passing on and reproduction of this report is only legal with a written permission of the author. This report is free of charge. You can sign up here: http://eepurl.com/pOKDb

Hinweis gemäß § 34 WpHG (Deutschland):

Mitarbeiter und Redakteure des Midas Touch Gold Newsletter halten folgende in dieser Ausgabe besprochenen Wertpapiere: physisches Gold und Silber, Bitcoins sowie Gold-Terminkontrakte.

Imprint & Legal Disclosure

Anbieterkennzeichnung gemäß § 6 Teledienstgesetz (TDG)/Impressum bzw. Informationen gem § 5 ECG, §14UGB, §24Mediengesetz 

Herausgeber und verantwortlich im Sinne des Presserechts / inhaltlich Verantwortlicher gemäß §6 MDStV 

Florian Grummes 

Hohenzollernstrasse 36 

80801 München

Germany

E-Mail: info@goldnewsletter.de 

Website: www.goldnewsletter.de

Florian Grummes (born 1975 in Munich) has been  studying and trading the Gold market since 2003. In 2008 he started publishing a bi-weekly extensive gold analysis containing technical chartanalysis as well as fundamental and sentiment analysis. Parallel to his trading business he is also a very creative & successful composer, songwriter and music producer. You can reach Florian at: info@goldnewsletter.de.

In the Aztec language the name for gold is teocuitlatl which means "excrement of the gods."