Gold Price Bull Market 2015 Annihilated By Strong US Dollar

March 13, 2015

Within weeks of the start of 2015, the Gold price had soared to nudge above $1,300 prompting many gold bugs to start proclaiming that the long anticipated resumption of the gold bull market had begun after what had seemed like an never ending 3.5 year bear market that had contained many false dawns which had greatly demoralised many gold bugs and even worse for precious metal stock investors.

However, gold bug mania commentary such as that Apple would soon start buying tons of gold for its i-watch and thus push the gold price towards new all-time highs proved short lived as the January peak of $1,308 was followed by a relentless grind lower to $1,150, that is even lower than where Gold began the year at $1,183.

For the reason why one only needs take a look to the US Dollar which has literally soared into the stratosphere, reasons for which I will take a close look at in a separate article.

Gold Price Forecast 2015

In terms of forecast expectations, my Gold price analysis of last December concluded in the following trend expectation for 2015.

31 Dec 2014 - Gold Price Trend Forecast 2015

Gold Price Forecast Conclusion 2015

My forecast conclusion is for the Gold price to trend lower into August 2015, targeting a low of $1050 before Gold finally makes a low for the year that propels the Gold price to above $1300, probably spiking to approx. $1350 during November before correcting during December as illustrated by the below forecast trend graph.

Current Gold Price Against Forecast Trend Trajectory

The most recent gold price close of $1,152 compares virtually exactly with the forecast trend trajectory for 13th March 2014 of $1,155. Therefore I see no reason to conduct any significant new analysis at this point in time as the forecast trend trajectory strongly implies that the main trend for the Gold price should be one of continuing to trend lower to at least $1050 during July / August 2015.

However, in the short-term probability favours a bounce of sorts so as to unwind the relentless 7 week downtrend off of the $1,130 to $1,150 support area that could propel the gold price back towards $1,200, though probably failing to reach $1190 before once more succumbing to the main bearish trend and thus a BREAK of the $1,130 to $1,150 support area.

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Source:  http://www.marketoracle.co.uk 

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years’ experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 120 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets.

In the Aztec language the name for gold is teocuitlatl which means "excrement of the gods."