Gold Price Cycle Update

May 5, 2017

Seems everyone (me included) is trying to spot when the next Intermediate Low in gold and PMs will be. Again, one of the things I am looking for is a failed short term Trading Cycle to confirm the move into the next Intermediate Low.

Well we now have Failed Trading Cycles in silver and two Failed Cycles in GDX and GDXJ. Silver and the GDXJ are very oversold here so could we be nearing an Intermediate Bottom (RSI, MACD and Slow Sto are all at or approaching ICL levels)?  But gold is the Cycle driver and the gold chart is giving me some issues (see my next section).

Gold Daily and Weekly charts show a different picture.  Gold Daily is a maybe but on the Weekly, the oscillators are not yet at levels normally associated with an ICL.  My first Daily chart shows gold has broken its IC uptrend and may have a Failed TC if we had a stealth TC Low near day 18 (see ??? on chart).  The Weekly paints a different picture but if we drop to the TC Low level below 1200, silver and the Miners may well take out the December 2016 Lows.

Based on what I am seeing, I MAY take a long position near the next Low, perhaps next week, but with a tight stop.

******** 

Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.   He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis.  Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.”  Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.

A one-ounce gold nugget is rarer than a five-carat diamond.