Shock Events & Gold Breakout
The events of the last 12 to 18 months have been as shocking as they have been instrumental in reshaping the global financial structures. In fact, the events have pointed out the fracture of the global monetary system and banking systems. The steady stream of events is accelerating in scope and intensity. The fractures are finally being recognized. The key to understanding the continuation of disruptive and chaotic events is the realization that nothing has been fixed, no remedy put in place, no reform agreed upon, no liquidation of impaired bank assets completed, and no work toward a more stable system. Instead, the old system has been subjected to a patchwork of futile efforts and initiatives that speak more of gaming the system, redeeming impaired assets, and channeling funds to those most responsible for the fractures. Instead of seeking solutions, the banking and political leaders revert to what has been their shelf of failed tools, since they know nothing else, stuck in the Keynesian box, painted into the 0% rate corner. The costs are horrific when solutions are not pursued. The beneficiary is gold, since all wayward policy costs money, which must be created, worsening the debasement. Gold rises with new money creation gone amok. $Trillion rescue packages have become the norm, in a cavalcade of debased currencies. Historical highs come for gold and silver, with gold fighting the political battles, but silver riding through the gates with high speed and raised dust. Central banks own no silver, and industry consumes silver. MONEY IS BEING CREATED FROM FIRE HOSES WITHOUT RESPECT FOR SYSTEMIC INTEGRITY IN UTTER DESPERATION, WHILE GOLD NOTICES!!
The system cannot repair itself because those in charge at the helm making decisions caused the fractures and protect their power base. They live and operate within a system that no longer functions effectively. Reform would involve bankruptcy for the elite in charge. Remedy would involve liquidation of the balance sheets for the elite in charge. True crackdown would involves prosecution and jail time for the elite in charge. Changing of the guard would involve lost power for the elite in charge. Independent audits would involve revelations and disclosures of criminal fraud on a widespread basis. So the system lumbers along, broken. Nowhere has the brokenness gone more unaddressed than under-water mortgages for 22% of the American public. True remedy and crackdown would involve a mushroom of criminal allegations from bond fraud, revelation of duplicate usage for mortgage payment revenue streams, lost property titles, and counterfeit fraud. That is a major reason why Fannie Mae was nationalized, to keep the fraud under the roof of the United States Government, where the corruption, theft, and fraud can be protected by the numerous agencies. The global response has been and will continue to be a flight into gold, finally recognized as a zero risk safe haven. The global decline in trust for government debt is the death knell for the major currencies, the monetary system, and the central bank franchise system. It is also the harbinger for $2000 gold and $50 silver.
Review briefly the scattering of powerful events in just the last 12 to 18 months. History is being made before our eyes. The franchise system of central banks and paper fiat currency has failed before our eyes, but with no specific recognition. The flood of new money creation testifies to both failure and desperation. New debt within the USEconomy no longer produces positive economic activity. The events are so diverse that any competent analyst must conclude that the global financial system has broken in irretrievable, irrevocable, irreversible manner. If the following diverse topics of disruption, breakdown, malfunction, denunciation, incompetence, compromise, corruption, and contagion do not wake people out of their slumber, nothing will. If investors do not take action amidst the plethora of warning signals, they deserve to be converted to vassals. Before long, personal self-defense activity will be declared improper and put under siege. Please pardon the brevity of each topic, but too many exist, and building an argument for each would require at least 2 to 3 pages. These topics of breakdown, failure, corruption, and contagion are covered every month in the Hat Trick Letter. Skim to the end to review the gold market summary, where new highs are being registered in almost every single currency on earth. The topics covered in brevity are the same ones covered in careful treatment for the last 12 to 18 months. The array of topics arranged in sequence serves to highlight the shocking events and the historically unprecedented desperation in response, all of which has led to a powerful gold rally based on respect, integrity, and standalone value.
REJECTION OF PETRO-DOLLAR & REVOLT
Last May 2009, the Saudis with Russians and Chinese at their sides announced the eventual end to payments for crude oil to be honored in USDollars. The concept was endorsed by Japan and Germany, whose counselors from Berlin might be far more integral in reshaping the global landscape than the US-UK aging power merchants are willing to concede. The disrespect shown the USDollar has turned to revolt, seen in G-7 Meetings. In fact, the G-7 has morphed into a country club meeting for former power brokers. The new G-20 Meeting is the forum of substance, where the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and Brazilians can have a voice and no longer sit in the hallways while decisions are made. The USDollar is on the butt end of a Global Paradigm Shift with extreme force. The beleaguered buck will limp along until alternatives in the planning stage are launched. That is soon, really soon, like before 2011 is too far along. Gold will compete well with both the USDollar and any newly launched currency alternative.
NATIONALIZED BLACK HOLES
The absorption of Fannie Mae and American Intl Group into the USGovt conglomerate of bureaucracy, fraud, waste, confusion, protection, syndicate wings, off-shore accounts, and printing press operations was an urgent step. It placed the corrupted mortgage finance structures and credit derivative framework under the USGovt aegis, where the syndicate agencies can provide both proper attention and protection from prosecution. The Black Holes will cost the USGovt a few trillion$, my forecast made in 2007 and 2008. Shifting ownership of securities and putting them under official stewardship has effectively eliminated the potential for lawsuits by investors foreign and domestic. Fannie Mae is the nexus of numerous gigantic fraudulent rings, the central clearing house, if truth be told. It is the vast sewage pit replete with slush funds, where obscure accounts reside never to face scrutiny, used to balance the accounting of several illicit rings without prying eyes. Gold will be viewed as the clean alternative to paper, especially the treasury toilet paper mixed in these sewage treatment plant vats.
Nowhere is the brokenness more evident than in the insolvent big banks. Not a one is solvent, all vampires in search of tangible assets, willing to trade worthless stock shares for assets. Lending is a thing of the past. Their loan loss reserves have vanished, as reserves are tucked away from the lending circles in the US Federal Reserve. Insolvent banks engage in minimal lending, since approval is inhibited by the lack of working capital. The banks are loaded down by an endless raft of foreclosed properties, kept from the market, not on the market. Speaking of insolvent, the USFed itself is in wretched shape. A mere 5% decline in their mortgage assets translates to a negative balance sheet. A more likely 40% decline in mortgage assets, in closer tie to reality, translates to hundreds of billion$ in negative balance sheet. This agency, this august USFed is supposed to lift the US financial structure from its underwater grave? Methinks not!
PHONY ACCOUNTING STANDARDS ENDORSED
On April 1st of 2009, the Financial Accounting Standards Board endorsed corrupt accounting of impaired assets. Banks were permitted to place any value they wanted, with clumsy laughable minimal justification. Enter the basis of the great US stock rally. What a global public spectacle of fraud! Shock waves like on May 6th will likely become the norm. Bond shock waves are in vogue. Without proper accounting, valuation exercises in US financial arenas becomes a farce, joke, travesty.
ENDLESS QUANTITATIVE EASING
The QE1 was welcomed. Vast new money printing for the purpose of meeting federal deficits, rescuing big banks, and providing vast slush funds was deemed necessary. The end of QE1 was heralded but a lie. Perhaps it was proclaimed at an end so that QE2 can be launched amidst fresh needs. The QE2 seems to be launched in Europe with a grand US conduit. In March, USFed Chairman Bernanke lied through his teeth to the USCongress about how Quantitative Easing had come to an end, that USTreasurys were not being monetized. In late April, Bernanke admitted his lie to the same US Congressional committee. Remove QE and the entire system grinds to a halt, then collapses under the weight of debt. Claims of QE removal serve as deceptive political drivel, pure diversion from the reality. The QE is as crucial as the right leg. Uncle Sam cannot negotiate the mine field while skipping and hopping on one leg.
REACTIVE CREATION OF USTREASURY BUBBLE
You gotta love the denials that the USTreasury Bond complex is a bubble. Its needs have grown enough to demand a significant slice of the entire global savings. Actually, the global savers have lost their appetite for further USTBond buys. As a bubble, it is fed by accelerating sources of funds, mostly nowadays from printing press creation of money. The near 0% interest rate is a dead end with no reversal, since higher borrowing costs would bring about a cave-in for the USTBond bubble. The USTreasury Bond bubble is the sentinel signal for the gold market to release, find global acceptance as true safe haven, and find proper value over $2000 per ounce. A supposed safe haven can NEVER be a bubble, requiring vigorous desperate denials therefore. In fact, as the USGovt adopts one broken child after another like Fannie Mae and AIG, the US$-based obligations extend beyond federal debt to cover mortgage wreckage and credit derivative fires. To call USTreasurys a safe haven is like calling Al Capone a savior, calling Lloyd Blankfein a crusader for God, calling Alan Greenspan the architect of prosperity, or calling Franklin Roosevelt a benefactor to gold investors.
ACCELERATION OF BANK FAILURES
Banks are falling victim to death experiences at an accelerated rate. The bank failure rate grew in mid-2008. The rate grew again in mid-2009. In 2010, already the rate has accelerated again. Bank failures are picking up speed rapidly. The FDIC insurance fund is deep in the red. The bank fees were levied at 13-fold increases last year. Even advanced bank fees have been exhausted by the FDIC. Soon the FDIC will need more billion$ in funds. A new wrinkle is that commercial mortgages are killing banks, at a time when many assets are revealed as being held on balance sheets at double their true value. See the recent bank failures and consistent over-valued assets in liquidation. The problem is systematic and endemic.
UNENDING MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES
Despite claims of a stabilizing housing market, the mortgage delinquencies and enormous inventory of bank owned homes is not being relieved. Fannie Mae reports still rising mortgage delinquencies. Prime Option ARMs are showing delinquency rates that rival the subprimes. Commercial mortgages are also showing delinquency rates that rival the subprimes. The newest wrinkle is Strategic Defaults, where people just stop paying their mortgages, an active decision, often by people with high RICO credit scores. Many are demanding the banks to produce their legitimate property title. Some suspect vast bond fraud. Civil disobedience á la Henry David Thoreau has entered the equation. With each new delinquency comes a default and more inventory. The entire USEconomic growth spurt in the 2002 to 2005 timeframe was founded on a housing bubble that was washed away. No new bubbles can be found of practical usage, only the USTreasury Bond bubble acting like a powerful black hole to inhibit capital formation. The supposed recovery will highly elusive for a couple more years.
REVELATIONS OF RIGGED METALS MARKET
In the last few weeks, the metals markets are abuzz over the revelations that the London silver market is rigged from JPMorgan trading desks. Price suppression has come from alleged naked shorting, otherwise known as selling silver contracts without collateral, without benefit of metal. Some attempt to build the case of yet another paper Ponzi scheme that would make Madoff proud. The concentrated short positions have no economic justification, and represent over a year of global mine output. Vindication might soon come to strong critics of JPMorgan and the Big Four. Without the outsized short position in silver, the silver price would be north of $50 per ounce. The same forces exist in gold. Without the outsized short position in gold, the gold price would be north of $2000 per ounce. That is where both are heading.
PROSECUTIONS OF US TITAN BANKS
The Big Four banks in the United States had better grow accustomed to legal charges and lawsuits. For several years, they sold toxic assets, misrepresented asset sales, have engaged in suspicious shorting of metals, have sold queer derivative products, have peddled counterfeit bonds of various types, have crawled in the bed of collusion for debt ratings, have dabbled with insider trading schemes, and much more. My sources tell of powerful Chinese interests and indirect agents putting tremendous pressure on the USGovt to enforce the law and enforce the regulations, which would effectively release clogged markets and force prosecution. They are ultimately USTreasury Bond creditors and Gold investors. They are angry. Watch the prosecutions and civil lawsuits continue like an endless parade. More exposés come like a sequence of sunrises.
REFUSALS FOR BANKING DISCLOSURE
The common practice of off-balance sheet usage is rampant. Various devices for temporary account ledger items are under fire. Banks place unsold home foreclosure inventory often off the balance sheet. Bigger banks place wrecked mortgage assets off the balance sheet. Loser credit derivatives and other derivatives routinely are placed off the balance sheet. The USTreasury funds its own USTBond purchases from agencies in the Caribbean, again off the balance sheet. The entire Enron operation, from its Harvard hatchery, its Citigroup funding, and its JPMorgan special purpose vehicles, was an off-shore enterprise also. Proper disclosure involves proper valuation. False accounting prevents the disclosure process. The motive is simple. The big banks are insolvent and do not wish to disclose their insolvency. Lending as a result suffers.
DEMANDS FOR USFED AUDIT
Imagine a nation whose central bank is part of a foreign owned syndicate, with full control of the monetary management, full control of channels to their favorite bank entities, full control of destinations for funds. The USFed is a paid consultant for the USCongress which refuses to disclose its gold inventory, refuses to disclose its currency management, refuses to disclose its disbursement of TARP Funds, refuses to disclose its monetization of USTreasurys and USAgency Mortgage Bonds, refuses to disclose its Wall Street fund swaps, and desperately conceals its vast flows of money from dangerous dark sticky caverns. Demands for a USFed audit coincided with a May 6th freakish stock plunge, resulting in watered down language for power to audit the USFed itself. The new bill at least is a foot in the door. Let's hope it is size 22 like Shaquille O'Neal.
TRILLION DOLLAR USGOVT DEFICITS
After the 2008 fiscal year USGovt deficit was announced in the $1.5 trillion range, shock was felt. The American public was told of a lower $1.3 trillion estimated deficit for 2009. It also ended up in the $1.5 trillion range. Expect the 2010 deficit to again be at least $1.5 trillion. Federal revenue receipts are still trending down for both individual and corporate tax sources. Another stimulus bill is soon to be entered, unless the nonsensical story of a recovery is actually embraced and believed. Funding of the Fannie Mae and AIG black holes is costly. And never overlook the endless wars. Their budgets are sacred, never debated, and always endorsed without delay. The end result is a continued flood of USTreasury creation, at a time when refunding rollovers are required. Gold competes with this travesty, competes successfully, seen as a carnival sideshow moved to center stage. Record debt issuance occurs each month.
MISSING USTREASURY AUCTION BIDDERS
The details of USTreasury official auctions have become a subject of open debate. Irregularities among direct and indirect bidders has attracted attention, bad attention. Simple calculations reveal how USTBond purchases by known sources account for less than half of USTBonds auctioned off, the difference made up by pure monetization in the typical secretive centers like the Caribbean bank centers. The Treasury Investment Capital (TIC) Reports continue to reveal a decline in most nations for USTreasury holdings, yet even more USTBonds are sent into the market. The monetization is the only answer to explain vast anomalies.
PLUMMETING MONEY VELOCITY
A new phenomenon, documented, explained, even with visual aids, was given in the May Macro Economic Report out last week. The monetary base is accelerating upwards at a mindboggling rate. The broad money supply in usage is actually falling, due to reduced lending and loan approval. The money velocity has fallen dangerously low, like to levels seen in the teeth of vicious recessions. Thus the monetary inflation, Bernanke's reason for being, has not been successful. The relationship between broad money supply and declining labor market is well known, tracked expertly by John Williams and his Shadow Govt Statistics staff. The conclusion is to expect a nasty recession to continue, to reappear, depending on your perspective and level of denial. Money is being thrust into the system, but it is not being put to work, as capital formation is non-existent. Think of a big car burning its engine, revving up wildly, but going very slowly down the road. Blown pistons and gaskets litter the roadway.
ABUSE OF EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
The Exchange Traded Funds in my view are an elaborate system for Wall Street to control prices for key items. The natural gas ETFund has had little bearing on the natural gas price. The silver ETFund (SLV) inventory has diverged from the silver metal price, the lost correlation as testimony to corrupted management. The lazy investors prefer to own an ETFund out of unwillingness to research or manage the asset, preferring to open the door to corrupt management by Wall Street firms, the same ones who corrupted the mortgage bond market, the muni bond market, the oil market, and the entire stock market. Mine is a suspicious eye cast upon all ETFunds, especially the Street Tracks SPDR (GLD) gold fund, the Barclays (SLV) silver fund, and the Goldman Sachs (GDX) gold mining fund. If investors are loaded with such ETFunds, then someday they might need heavy duty treatment for indigestion, as they watch rallies from the outside windows. As Stewart Dougherty put it, "Big Money is going to be way too smart to buy the Exchange Traded Funds that have been pimped to retail investors as a way to sterlize their money and keep it out of the metals market for which it was internded." The solution is to own a gold or silver bullion account. See the Sprott (PHYS) fund which is given a 30% price premium, due to integrity.
POLITICAL REACTION TO FAILURE & COLLECTIVISM
The public disgust and anger is growing fast. The Tea Party movement has gained acceptance and vigor at the grassroots level. Some past leaders attempt to associate the Tea Party participants with terrorists, which is ludicrous. George Washington, Patrick Henry, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, James Madison, and especially the outspoken Benjamin Franklin might be maligned if alive today, or at least harassed with tax audits. The USCongress is distrusted more than Wall Street. Bankers are despised and disrespected. The people did not want a national Health Care program, but their desires are secondary. The USGovt had better beware of a blossoming of civil disobedience in reaction. One form is not to make mortgage payments. Another form is to drain investment accounts and to purchase gold & silver, coins or bullion, either way.
DISRESPECT SHOWN TO THE UNITED STATES
International prestige has vanished for the United States. The revolt that started against the USDollar two years ago has branched in multiple directions. US bankers are on the extreme defensive, the former ambassadors to economic export. The endless wars have tarnished the US reputation. The military services fraud has tarnished the US reputation. The abuse of NATO airbases has tarnished the US reputation. The Wall Street toxic bond export on a global scale has tarnished the US reputation. The interference with foreign sovereign debt by Wall Street and US-based hedge funds has tarnished the US reputation. The heavy hand of IMF and World Bank leverage, pressures, and poison pills has tarnished the US reputation. The ratcheting trade war and stream of tariffs and complaints by the USGovt have tarnished the US reputation. The Madoff Ponzi Scheme has tarnished the US reputation. The numerous nationalized companies has tarnished the US reputation. The new prosecutions against Wall Street fraud have tarnished the US reputation. The flood of new USTreasury Bond supply has tarnished the US reputation. The lack of leadership in times of crisis has tarnished the US reputation.
FLASH TRADING EXPOSED
In the last two years, much attention has been given the Flash Trading, also called High Frequency Trading, even the basic name of Computer Program Trading. Estimates that 73% of the New York Stock Exchange trading volume is from program trading. So Wall Street is essentially deeply committed to incestuous endeavors, certainly not producing anything. Paul Volcker accused the financial industry of one good innovation in 20 years, the automatic teller machine. He finds no value in either credit derivatives or computer program trading. In fact, much of the Flash Trading proprietary devices might be elaborate insider trading mechanisms that view more than is permitted among the order stream. See the Goldman Sachs incident one year ago, when an employee stole the illegal software, but the story dissipated like a summer fog over Cape Cod. The Flash Trading was unleashed on May 6th again. A grand roller coaster ride ensued, possibly motivated by insider information of a weekend European bank rescue and $1 trillion monetization package. Lack of liquidity is blamed, but so is lack of value. In today's world of high finance, a flash trade computer program device might enable the gunning for the sell stops, filling them at absurdly low levels, mugged on the trading platforms. The Dark Pools in OTC trading account for $60 trillion in annual activity, versus a mere $5 trillion in monitored traffic. That translates to more back alleys for mugging than passageways well lit to prevent dastardly deeds.
SOVEREIGN DEBT REJECTED
Since late November when the Dubai debt went into default, the sovereign debt crisis has been unleashed like a relentless storm. Following Dubai was Greece, the common denominator being the London and West Europe banks. Denials are shallow minded and unfounded when analysts claim that sovereign debt risk is fenced from one nation to another. Contagion will be the norm. Much of the Greek Govt debt is held by Swiss, London, and French banks. So a rescue of Greece is tantamount to a rescue of these big exposed banks. The rash of sovereign debts facing default, or pressure toward default, testifies to the failure of the monetary system. The usage of newly hatched money to fix problems from unbacked untethered unsecured money is lunacy. Eventually, a condition marred by debt constipation results. Uncle Sam needs to find excretory relief without blockage by basic fur balls. The next nations to face the sovereign debt hammer of scrutiny and market retaliation are Italy, Spain, France, and then England. The fireworks are nowhere finished. With each new episode, the Gold price will rise further.
FAILURE OF CENTRAL BANK FRANCHISES
The sovereign debt crisis is actually a symptom of the failed central bank franchise system. The central bank had better hurry to produce new global reserve currencies backed and fortified by gold, also possibly by crude oil, or else the fires in the government debt will continue to burn. The end result will be ruined currencies, broken national banking systems, national budgets in tatters beyond remedy, economies ground to a halt, and eventually civil strife. We are witnessing the end convulsions of the fiat paper monetary system. The central banks are powerless to stop the crisis. The $1 trillion European bank bailout plan gave lift to the Euro currency for less than 24 hours. The USDollar is viewed as likewise wrecked and undermined as the Euro. In my view, the simple perspective is that their near 0% interest rates are like a minimal pulse on the banking system, a depleted body lying in the Intensive Care ward. The currencies are all dying. Gold will rise until given proper recognition, then it will rise even more.
GOLD SEEN AS ZERO RISK REFUGE
No charts are necessary. A thousand words might suffice, rather than six charts showing Gold breaking out to new highs across the world. Some major points scream to be told. Here is a list:
- Gold is rising in every single major currency
- Gold is not a hedge against price inflation, but rather against ruined monetary system
- Gold is making new highs in almost every single major currency
- Gold had consolidated in price for four months, the base for breakout
- Gold will reach $2000 in price within the next two years time
- Gold is desperately needed to anchor the failed fiat paper currency system
- Gold is planned for a component role in the new Northern Euro currency
- The sovereign debt crisis has fueled demand for Gold without the full realization that the central bank franchise system has failed along with the fiat currencies
- Quantitative Easing is monetary hyper-inflation, the fuel of the Gold rally
- Gold is urgently needed as a bank reserve to ensure proper function
- Gold contains no inherent counter-party risk
- Gold is in the midst of vast supply shortages
- The Gold Cartel is seeing defections among its allies, who are buying gold bullion after the cartel knocks down the price
- Nations are hoarding their gold mining output, the latest possibly Venezuela
- Gold is seeing panic buying in parts of Europe, like Austria
- Gold mining output is trending down for the past few years
- Gold was by far the #1 investment asset in the entire 2000-2009 decade
- The US Dow Jones Industrial Average is in multi-year decline, in Gold terms
- Gold is protected from human corruption, except in its theft and hollow replacement
- Gold market is receiving heavy scrutiny for corrupt metal exchanges
- The London Bullion Market Assn has been in default since December, bribing on delivery demands to receive cash settlement with a 25% premium paid
- The GLD gold exchange traded fund is a corrupt diversion from metal ownership
- Hong Kong is soon to offer several exchange traded funds for Gold
- Gold can and does rise in price concurrently with the USDollar
- Future payment for oil shipments will require a gold-backed currency
- New barter systems of trade will contain a gold core component
- Gold is the ultimate safe haven asset
- The USTreasury has no gold reserves, as Fort Knox is empty, since the Clinton-Rubin gang leased it and sold it all
- PIGS nations have more gold reserves than the United States
- Switzerland and Canada have almost zero gold in national reserves
- The IMF gold sales are lies, actually closed out USGovt gold short transactions from past years when the Clinton-Rubin gang leased gold for sale
- Gold leased from the Italian central bank was lost by LongTerm Capital Mgmt
- Bear Stearns was targeted for a kill, since it was long in gold, defying Wall Street
- China participates with the IMF sideshow game in order to buy its gold pledges
- If Gold were revalued at 3x to 5x the price, many national banking systems would be restored to health and solvency
- Price hyper-inflation is the likely next blemish on the US landscape, which will fuel broad public gold demand
- Any attempt by the USGovt to confiscate gold would result in a gigantic backfire, with the gold price doubling in price, and US foreign assets subjected to freezes
- Gold will reach its high range when US bankers along with London bankers face a Nuremberg style criminal trial on the global stage
- Prepare for the arrival of a small group of new Gold-backed currencies, the USDollar death knell
- As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1913, "Gold is money, and nothing else"
- MONEY IS BEING CREATED FROM FIRE HOSES WITHOUT RESPECT FOR SYSTEMIC INTEGRITY IN UTTER DESPERATION, AS GOLD RESPONDS!!
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Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com . For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at JimWillieCB@aol.com