first majestic silver

Technical Analysis Of Major Markets

September 22, 2015

Gold

 

Gold was a little softer in the overnight session, reaching a low of 1125.70, at the time this Post was being written.  We expect further minor softness as the COMEX session progresses.

We are not 100% sure whether wave *i* of ,iii, ended at 1141.20, or whether this drop from 1141.20 to 1125.70 is all or part of wave ^iv^ of *i*. 

In any event, when wave *i* ends we should expect a correction in wave *ii*, that should retrace between 50 and 61.8% of the entire wave *i* rally.

We are long 20 positions, risking to 1097.00! 

Crude

 

Crude was lower in the overnight session, reaching 45.60 at the time this Post was being written.  We have been working on the assumption that wave ^b^ of *ii* has become a triangle.

Within that triangle, we are rallying in wave !e!. What we are not sure about is whether all of wave !e! is complete at yesterday’s high of 47.00, or whether we are going to rally back to that level one more time, before we can declare that wave !e! and all of wave ^b^ is complete.

Remember that triangles like to extend!

Upon the completion of wave !e! and ^b^, crude should thrust lower in wave ^c^ to at least the wave ^a^ low of 43.21, to complete all of wave *ii*.

We plan to buy at the end of wave *ii*.

Our updated wave *ii* count is:

^a^ = 43.21:

^b^:

!a! = 48.42;

!b! = 43.36;

!c! = 47.71;

!d! = 44.25:

!e! = 47.00, if complete, to complete all of wave ^b^.

If wave ^b^ ended at 47.00 then our first projection for the end of wave ^c^ is:

^c^ = 0.618^a^ = 43.22.

We expect the end of wave ^c^ and all of wave *ii* would be within the following retracement levels:

50% = 43.54;

61.8% = 42.19.

We plan to go long 8 positions at 42.50, and buy 42.00 puts as stops!                                                         

S&P500  

It looks like we gave the S&P rally more credit than it deserved as S&P Futures are down about 30 points at the time that this Post was being written!!!

As you can see on the attached 120 Min S&P Chart, it looks like all of wave .ii. of -v- ended at 1979.64, which was a very weak retracement of the wave .i. rally.

We should now be falling sharply in wave .iii.

Assuming that we are falling in wave -v- and not wave .ii. of -iii-, our minimum target for end of wave -v- is the wave -iii- low of 1867.01.

Our very bearish case remains valid, but is our alternate at the moment.   Our big picture view that the US stock market will trade under its 2008 lows is unchanged.           

We are short 10 positions, with 1975 calls!

USDX

 

The USDX was firm in the overnight session and we still expect it to rally back to the 96.64 high. Although, we are not quite sure how this rally fits into the bigger picture.  

We are flat the USDX  

NG

NG rallied to 2.598, in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written.

We are still waiting for some indication that the 2.552 low is the end of wave -ii or -b-. A break below the 2.48 low would eliminate our current count, and suggest that NG is going back to the 1.90 low. 

Our current count, from the wave a low is:

-i- or -a- = 3.11;

-ii- or -b-= 2.552, if complete.

A break above the 2.79 high, would confirm that this market is poised to move significantly higher.

We are long 5 positions at 2.61, risking to 2.47! 

HUI/GDX/XAU

We are working on the assumption that all or most of wave *iv* is now complete.

It could be possible that wave *iv* could become more complex before it ends, but we are looking to complete an impulsive sequence that started at 12.62 low.

Upon completion of wave .i. , we should expect a wave .ii correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave .i. rally.

We are long GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

XAU

This long term Ewave picture of the XAU index shows a huge bull wedge pattern that should launch my key C wave to the upside.  It’s been a frustrating wait, along we have booked huge profits in our SP500 short positions, which has made the wait worthwhile!

CLAUDE RESOURCES

Claude is our bell weather junior gold stock, and it’s holding up pretty well on the latest decline. All the key lows are holding, and when the current consolidation ends, we expect Claude to make a beeline to our 98 cent target price!

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Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

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