Murphy On the Markets
Bill
Murphy
October 7 - Gold $417.50 down 20 cents –
Silver $7.18 down 3 cents
An Exposed And Dying Scheme
"People
hate those who make them feel their own inferiority." --Lord Philip Dormer
Stanhope Chesterfield
How sickening! There was every reason for
gold to blow through $420 this morning. Close But No Cigar, as The Gold
Cartel blatantly stopped all attempts in their tracks. The nearest we got was
$419.60 bid. This morning both the stock market and dollar were weak. However,
the reason for the gold price to explode early on was in the auxiliary
commodity news:
New York Crude Oil Soars
to Record $53 on Winter Supply Concern
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New
York rose to a record $53 a barrel after rising 14 of the last 16 sessions on
concern that U.S. supplies will be inadequate to meet winter demand.
Hurricane Ivan has reduced production at
platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, source of a quarter of U.S. output. U.S.
inventories rose less than expected last week, and unions in Nigeria may
strike, threatening shipments from the fifth biggest source of U.S. oil
imports.
``The persistent shut-ins in the Gulf have
been more severe and longer lasting than we thought at the time of the
hurricane,'' said Jim Steel, director of commodity research at Refco Inc. in
New York. ``The geopolitical concerns in Nigeria and elsewhere are just adding
to the concern about supplies and the rise in prices.''
-END-
Do I need to write a MIDAS these days with
many of you knowing what I will comment on ahead of time? For instance,
Houston’s Dan Norcini this morning:
Hey buddy.
Do you want me to write your daily Midas for you today??? I can already guess
what you are going to say. Just kidding Bill but I can see the fumes coming up
in Big D all the way from down the road here in Houston! I called the Dallas
Fire Department and told them that the smoke they see is just Murphy again and
that they can stand down and go back to playing some ping pong and shooting
pool.
Crude at $53.00/bbl, the dollar down, the
stock market down, the CRB moving up and gold ONCE AGAIN getting sat on by the
plunderers and rapists at the gold cartel every time it dares poke its head
above $420. You can really see the battle taking place by watching the intraday
price action.
The jobs report is due out tomorrow
morning and my guess is that the number will be a decent one judging from the
recent ISM's. Besides, it is the last one before the election and I am certain
that the pencil pushers have had their marching orders to deliver the goods. No
doubt they have been told that they can issue the "CORRECTION" next
month when they revise DOWNWARD the number.
That will give the goons the opportunity
to try to give the dollar a pop and of course, flush some specs out of the gold
market. They have pulled this same stunt every time we have had a decent jobs
number for the last year. I would not expect anything different this time
around. Only thing is that if the jobs number comes in at less that 140,000 or
so for some reason, there is going to be a fly in their ointment. Not only
that, as more and more people get wise to their schemes, the gold market is
going to continue to find buyers on these orchestrated bear raids and
subsequent price setbacks. The support line keeps moving up in gold.
We know that the ONLY major selling
taking place is being done by the same bullion banks and of course, the local
yokels who hitch a ride on their coattails (that would be the floor traders)
who are going to get steamrolled one of these days very soon when someone looks
across at them in the pit and calmly says, "Do you have any more you want
to sell me?" That will be fun!
Dan
The gold open interest rose again, this
time up 1549 contracts to 298,149.
Spoke to my STALKER source. First time in
a week as I have been away, as you know. He has some goodies for us from his
London silver dealer contact:
·
The Russians were
substantial buyers of silver in September, second only to the Saudis.
·
The silver shortage
is spreading outside of England to other countries.
·
He is looking for
$8.50 silver in the weeks and months to come, yet is now even more bullish.
Price could EASILY go higher than that.
·
He recently had
trouble filling a $1 million order, which is not a large one for him.
·
The market is getting
tighter and tighter.
·
The buyers want
DELIVERY, not paper. They want the real goods. This is a more recent
development.
·
There are some
willing sellers, which could put some volatility in the market, even taking
silver below $7. This source believes this will be a real buying opportunity as
the price will not stay down there for any length of time.
·
Recent word in London
has both Warren Buffet and Bill Gates active in silver.
The silver open interest rose 2361
contracts to 101,879. The Comex silver warehouse stocks were unchanged at
106,945,810. That is a new low since my last report to you on them.
On another note, our STALKER source says
he recently went to a meeting of money manager types in Canada who are also
involved in the gold arena in some way. The talk was of fierce inflation in the
US for the next 18 months. After that, who knows, could get worse?
The
John Brimelow Report
Indian
buying joined by Japanese? Bears hope for big employment
Thursday,
October 07, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.23, PM
$7.69, with world gold at $418.95 and $417.85. Adequate, and lavish for legal
imports. India seems willing to tolerate gold in the high teens. Bad news for
Bears.
Indian markets were cheered late in the
day by news of the success of the country’s second biggest IPO, involving the
privatization of National Thermal Power Corporation, and the rupee firmed.
India looks poised to buy a lot of gold.
Superficially, TOCOM was not very
convinced, with the active contract closing down 3 yen, and aggregate volume
falling 21% to equal 23,105 Comex lots. But in fact world gold made another
approach to $420, closing according to Reuters at $419.25, $1.25 above NY, open
interest rose the equivalent of 845 Comex lots, while according to Mitsubishi’s
estimates, the "Member’s Proprietary position" jumped 8.8 tonnes to a
short of 16 tonnes. This implies the public has started to rebuild its long.
If true, this could be very important. As
recently as early August, this was in the order of 80 tonnes; over 100 tonnes
was normal earlier in the year. Levels of recent days, close to flat were the
lowest since the post Washington Accord price spike in October ’99.
Comex yesterday traded 52,741 contracts,
with open interest rising another 1,559 contracts to 298,151. (Much concern is
heard about this being little less than the all-time high in April. In fact the
run down of the Japanese spec position has appreciably offset the enthusiasm in
NY.) Estimated volume today was 31,000.
Early this morning, TheBullionDesk.com
commented:
"Despite strength in the white
metals, gold meeting very stiff resistance at $420 – sellers said to be a Fund
liquidation – a successful breach of $420 may give rise to $433 in next few
days…"
Even the normally bearish Barclays
commentary observes
"…should the dollar weaken tomorrow
afternoon …a strong move higher in gold looks extremely likely"
Today, of course, the widely-noted defense
of $420 has been successful.
The noted gold bear displays remarkable
confidence that tomorrow’s employment number will be a big upside surprise, and
that a commodity and gold rout will follow. It may be he knows something.
However, given the behavior of the key physical markets, one doubts that the
vulnerability of gold can very great.
JB
A thanks to Lars Lindgren
in Norway for sending us these charts:
Silver:
Silver_10_07_04.pdf
The dollar:
US_Dollar_Index_10_07_04.pdf
EXTRAORDINARY! Pimco’s Bill Gross is
generally regarded as the most visible and successful person in the US bond
world. He is a money manager and firm owner who has earned the highest praise
from the establishment. However, now that he has critiqued the interests of
Washington and Wall Street, he has been lambasted by some of those who praised
him in the past. Café members and GATA supporters know this sort of routine all
too well (without the praise of course). Propaganda is King to Wall
Street and Washington, not the truth. Good for Bill Gross and good for Bill
King who diligently reports on the CPI intrigue:
-END-
Back to gold. What strikes me most these
days after my trip to Toronto and reading the responses, or lack thereof, to
the release of the Russian central banker's speech is REALLY how clueless the
gold investing world is regarding any serious knowledge of the true situation
of the gold market. As a result, it reaffirms to me the gold price action ahead
of us will be astounding. And, as my colleague Chris Powell is fond of saying,
GATA has stumbled into the secret of the investing universe, which is why The
Gold Cartel/establishment does all they can to ignore us and keep our findings
from being read.
There is no doubt in my mind (as evidenced
by the presentation by Russian central banker Oleg V. Mozhaiskov in Moscow),
the biggest money in the world has studied what GATA has uncovered and knows we
are correct. However, most of the gold world refuses to deal with our findings
to protect their own agendas and institutional interests. This includes those
who comment on all the markets in general. Now, if these people are this
clueless, disingenuous, or indifferent, think about the rest of the investing
world who still have trouble spelling the word gold and have yet to do any
investing in this arena. The implications are staggering when only a fraction
of them learn what we already know. The tiny market cap goldshare market will
not be able to handle the investor demand.
What is key is the central banks don’t
have the gold they say they have. An extra 13,000+ tonnes have been used to
surreptitiously suppress the price to advance the interest of The Gold Cartel.
Certain bullion banks, who have lent the gold out, cannot get this gold back
(when the market is already in a 1500+ tonne per year deficit) without driving
the price hundreds of dollars per ounce higher. Whether a majority of the
bullion banks are allowed to pay off the loan in cash is hard to say. However,
what counts is the gold is gone, which means gold demand has been far higher
than reported by officialdom, and two, not all the bullion banks will have
their loans forgiven. The "S" is going to hit the fan some place.
That you can count on.
The point is the investing/gold world is
not taking this into account when assessing the price prospects for gold. Once
bullion takes out some key points like $430 and starts to run, it is going to
START to create great stress – a stress which most everyone is unprepared for
or in denial of. This is why The Gold Cartel is so desperate to keep gold
subdued and away from danger territory. The good news for us is it is a war the
cabal will lose because of the fundamentals. Their days, weeks and, at most,
months are numbered. When they are carried out, gold is likely to act far more violently
than the world is prepared for. You will know what is coming and why.
Relatively few others will. Fortunes will be made. Only a matter of a shrinking
amount of time before our big days arrive.
Now this is interesting
and proof GATA is making serious progress. Word is spreading about the Russian
speech. It’s hard to know its eventual impact, yet we know it is getting the
GATA word out there. This can only be a VERY bullish development and a
nightmare for The Gold Cartel:
-END-
RR is right about the Commercials.
However, it ain’t the jewelers and gold producers keeping the gold price from
soaring. He’s right too about the Commercials putting out more shorts on a
price rise. This is why we MUST get a Commercial Signal Failure for gold to
soar towards $500. It won’t be the specs covering shorts when gold takes out
$430. The bums have to be blown out of the water for that to happen.
Gold is getting more ink space:
After the gold rush
Gold, and gold stocks, have enjoyed a rapid run-up since May. Do they have more
room to run?
October 6, 2004: 12:00 PM EDT
by Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money
senior writer
http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/06/markets/gold/index.htm?cnn=yes
-END-
All eyes are on the US jobs report
tomorrow. If it is weak (they couldn’t even massage the numbers, the economy is
so tepid), The Gold Cartel will probably be forced to sound retreat at $420. If
they are strong (jiggled, or not), the attack by this corrupt crew will be
vicious. With the spec open interest this high, gold is vulnerable to a
substantial sell-off. At the same time, the fundamentals keep improving and are
a "10+++++." With the game plan of the bad guys so obvious and the
cash market so firm, you have to wonder if the really big buyers might not be
lying in the weeds for The Gold Cartel and their exposed and dying scheme?
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix
Fed's Poole calls for end to rate hints
Says market takes them as commitments
By Gregory
Robb, CBS Marketwatch.com
Last Update: 2:26 PM ET Oct. 6, 2004
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Federal Open
Market Committee should end its practice of hinting at the likely course of
future policy actions, said William Poole, the president of the Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis.
"Given ... the danger of misleading
the market when indicating a probable future course for policy, I have
generally been opposed to announcing, or hinting, future policy
adjustments," Poole said Wednesday in a speech prepared for delivery to a
business group in Springfield, Mo. A copy of his remarks was released in
Washington.
Poole said that markets might misinterpret
the statement as "a firm commitment" when it is only meant to give
the public some idea of how policy might proceed.
Poole raised the possibility that he may
even dissent from the statements, if such hints continue to be added.
He said that, in some cases, a statement
on the probable future course of monetary policy could be more important than
the setting of the current intended Fed funds rate.
"The public will have to understand
that dissents may be in order over the wording of the policy statement, a
possibility that has not been widely discussed," Poole said.
The FOMC started the practice of
discussing the likely future course of policy last year.
At its last meeting, in September, the
FOMC said that "policy accommodation can be removed at a measured
pace," language that financial markets interpret as indicating continued
steady quarter-point increases in the Fed funds rate.
"What actually happens will depend on
economic events that are subject to wide forecasting errors," Poole said.
He said that at some point new information
will cause the FOMC to change the pace of its WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The
Federal Open Market Committee should end its practice of hinting at the likely
course of future policy actions, said William Poole, the president of the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
"Given ... the danger of misleading
the market when indicating a probable future course for policy, I have
generally been opposed to announcing, or hinting, future policy
adjustments," Poole said Wednesday in a speech prepared for delivery to a
business group in Springfield, Mo. A copy of his remarks was released in
Washington.
Poole said that markets might misinterpret
the statement as "a firm commitment" when it is only meant to give
the public some idea of how policy might proceed.
Poole raised the possibility that he may
even dissent from the statements, if such hints continue to be added.
He said that, in some cases, a statement
on the probable future course of monetary policy could be more important than
the setting of the current intended Fed funds rate.
"The public will have to understand
that dissents may be in order over the wording of the policy statement, a
possibility that has not been widely discussed," Poole said.
The FOMC started the practice of
discussing the likely future course of policy last year.
At its last meeting, in September, the
FOMC said that "policy accommodation can be removed at a measured
pace," language that financial markets interpret as indicating continued
steady quarter-point increases in the Fed funds rate.
"What actually happens will depend on
economic events that are subject to wide forecasting errors," Poole said.
He said that at some point new information
will cause the FOMC to change the pace of its
removed at a measured pace," language
that financial markets interpret as indicating continued steady quarter-point
increases in the Fed funds rate.
"What actually happens will depend on
economic events that are subject to wide forecasting errors," Poole said.
He said that at some point new information
will cause the FOMC to change the pace of its policy adjustments.
"The pace could be faster or slower,
depending on how the economy evolves," he said.
In order to capture the uncertainty, the
FOMC has added that it would "respond to changes in economic prospects as
needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability."
He said the statement does not provide
detail on whether the policy direction was an easy call for Fed officials or
subject to dispute.
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