HUI Bull Market Confirmations
Robert Bird (aka TQ)
Looking at the HUI monthly we can see the bottom pattern from about October 2004 to the present resembles the pattern January 2000 to about January 2002. This fractal is supported by the Elliott Wave count, mentioned below. Both suggest that a new major upleg is beginning; in Elliott Wave terms, an impulse Wave THREE equal or greater in percentage terms than the rise from 35 to 258.

We can see that in the earlier pattern MACD and RSI both showed positive divergence, making a higher low while the HUI made a lower low.

RSI in particular is interesting. It made a higher low the month after the HUI low of 35. And it has again made a higher low (October) after the recent HUI low of 165.

Note also that rising black ADX has for some months suggested that the correction from the 2003 high has ended.

We can also see that the wave pattern shows that the HUI may be in a Wave One of THREE, if having ended a five wave rise and three wave correction. This would be confirmed if the HUI next rises to the 270 or so area to complete a five wave rise from 165.


November 30, 2005

Cheers, TQ