The four companies are:
First Majestic Silver (FR in Vancouver, FRMSF on Pink Sheets) being featured today.
Endeavour Silver (EDR in Toronto, EDRGF on Pink Sheets) featured in Part 1.
Great Panther Resources (GPR in Toronto, GPRLF on Pink Sheets) featured in Part 2.
Impact Silver (IPT in Vancouver, ISVLF on Pink Sheets) to be featured in Part 4.
First Majestic Silver
In this installment, I will present the fundamentals on the recently renamed First Majestic Silver (formerly First Majestic Resources). The historical data and forecasts shown were obtained by and through personal interviews with company management, company publications, the Internet, and annual reports. All dollar amounts are in US$ millions unless otherwise noted.
|
|
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|
Silver Equiv. Production (millions oz.) |
|
3.3 * |
5.0 |
7.0 |
|
Revenue (Silver = $12/oz.) |
|
$39.6 |
$60 |
$84 |
|
Silver As % of Revenue |
|
90% |
90% |
90% |
|
Total Expenses ** |
|
$26.4 |
$30 |
$42 |
|
Pre-Tax Profit ** |
|
$13.2 |
$30 |
$42 |
|
Market Multiple (18x) ** |
|
$238 |
$540 |
$756 |
|
Shares Outstanding (millions) |
|
51 |
55 |
60 |
|
Options/Warrant (millions) |
|
9 |
12 |
10 |
|
Cap. Expenditure Plan (company est.) |
|
$40 |
$25 |
$10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash in Bank |
|
$19 |
|
|
|
Possible Market Value Dec. 2007 |
|
$650 |
|
|
|
Possible Share Price Dec. 2007 |
|
US$12/share |
|
|
* Due to the acquisitions during 2006, this number does not appear in the company's financial statements; however, the number represents the proforma ounces of silver produced in 2006 from the three producing mines owned as of year-end.
** Management of First Majestic Silver provided me with their estimate of total expenses rather than mine operating expenses used in my presentations for Endeavour Silver and Great Panther in the two previous installments of this series. Therefore, pre-tax profit instead of mine operating profit is used above. Accordingly, I adjusted the market multiple up to 18x from 15x to make my estimate of market value comparable to what was presented previously.
I would like to point out once again that the Possible Market Value Dec. 2007 shown is the average of the 2007 and 2008 calculated market values, which is the same method I have used throughout this series. Please see the prior installments for further explanation of my methodology.
Other factors which make, in my own opinion, First Majestic Silver a good investment now include the following:
I am working on a comparable analysis for the remaining company on my "value strategy" list, Impact Silver, which should be released shortly. There may also be other companies worthy of consideration in the future using our criteria, but these four appear to be the most mature, proven successful junior silver producers currently out there, and therefore we believe they may be the least risky while still possessing high return potential in the near term.
By way of disclosure, I own shares of all the companies featured in this "value strategy" series. Also, no one has asked or paid me to write these articles.
**
Don Hansen is a retired entrepreneur who has been investing in silver mining stocks since 2001.
Disclaimer: We hope others will find this approach interesting and useful in making their investment decisions but we caution all investors that this is not an investment recommendation and that each investor must consider his or her own investment criteria, horizon, suitability and other factors before making an investment in these or any other stocks. Inexperienced investors should consult with a registered investment advisor. Information contained herein is believed to be accurate but we make no guarantees to that effect. We are under no obligation to correct errors or update any information, which is only timely as of the date of publication. Forward-looking statements and estimates are the author's own opinion only and any information obtained directly or indirectly from the company is protected by safe harbor laws. Furthermore, all viewpoints expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of www.silveraxis.com. The author and persons associated with www.silveraxis.com own shares in all of the companies mentioned and therefore are biased in their favor. No compensation was received from the companies mentioned nor was the author asked by anyone to produce this commentary.