"Hey! I prepared for Y2k. Didn't happen. I'm not getting all into that disaster mentality crap. The last time I did that, it didn't happen, and my family and coworkers all laughed at me."

or

"all you gloom and doom types!, you stir up people, and want those things to happen. People like you have been talking about disasters all the time. You are negative.... perma-bears, etc etc."

You know what my reply is? SO WHAT! Are you going to tell me that disasters never happen? That being prepared is not wise? All you are is an optimist that just believes everything will work out all right. You are basically reneging on any action on YOUR PART to prepare, its just easier for you that way. But that does nothing to prove that a real disaster is not coming your way.

If one did come your way, you would just be blindsided.

OK, let's get a little more specific. I will write about parallels to 1930.... That depression was just an economic catastrophe. People will say that was a long time ago. I say, hey its only 70 or so years ago! Depressions are periodic, a proven economic fact that is always lurking when there are excesses. Just because YOU have not seen one yet, doesn't mean they are not lurking just around the corner.

How about World War 2? In that war, which really was fought all over the globe, it is said there were at least 100 to 200 million people killed. It raged in China, the Far East, Japan, the Middle East, the Mediterranean, all over Europe, all over Russia. In England. On the vast Pacific..........in the Atlantic. Just for example, there were 20 million Russian deaths alone! Just the German U-boat fleet suffered 30,000 deaths out of 40,000 crew...... not to mention the millions of German battlefield casualties. The US lost hundreds of thousands of troops on the battlefields of WW2. On Iwo Jima Island alone, the US lost 6,825 fighting men!

It was only 60 years ago.....

The present day wars so far are just nothing compared to WW2 or WW1... two gigantic wars in one century...

I suppose that we people who believe in disasters are just imagining all these things??????

No, the real problem here is complacency, and not people like me. It is the people who participate and allow the excesses, and are complacent until the final results of their excesses come home to bite them.....

What disasters are lurking right now, ones that will directly affect Americans?

A dollar collapse.

A war with China

Terrorism

Biological disasters such as bird flu.

Economic Depression....

Financial collapse from derivatives.

Energy crisis.

These are not all of them to say the least.

I often hear people say, "the US has ALWAYS overcome, we always work things out" I hate it when I hear that because those are the famous last words every time a civilization collapses either economically or in a war. Or a plague. Now, of course I am not going to say this all MUST come. I am saying these are lurking dangers. Big difference.

Why do I write about these things? You may know that I am a mathematician, a computer database engineer...I have also studied a lot of History at UCLA before I switched to a pure mathematics major. I could have easily been a double major in history and math. I was an Army artillery Lieutenant. Why do I do what I do? Because I read about WW2 and the great depression, and I know what can happen. I have used my background to study these kinds of things, I am now somewhat of an expert on how they occur. Someone has to do it.

It so happens that I have a gift for bringing together complex financial topics so that people can get an understanding of these things. I like this work. I am good at it. Other writers use the material that I bring forth for their own constituents. Which I think is great.

One reader of mine said

"Laird is the Steven King of the dark financial future."

Smile.

But on a more serious note, I am eloquent in describing the economic dangers that can most definitely affect you, your retirement, your kids future and so on. I take this seriously.

And again, I hate it when I hear the eternal optimist type who just waves his hand and says "we in the US always win in the end". That is just hubris.

This coming week's edition of the PrudentSquirrel news letter is my best yet, and has lots of provocative material in it. Here is a list of this weeks topics:

Real Gold Price, French immigrant riots help US repatriation of funds, Efficient market paradigm revisited, France, Muslims and the EURO, Financial panics happen fast, USD and Yen

"In the long run, we are all dead."

Keynes

November 10, 2005

Christopher Laird
Editor-in-chief,
PrudentSquirrel Newsletter
www.prudentsquirrel.com