"Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse."
W.D.Gann
The Three Musketeers and D'Artagnan are inseparable
The charts appear to be saying that the behavior of crude oil, gold, silver, and the dollar index are closely associated. Perhaps they are not as tight knit as the musketeers, but they do resemble a close knit family. When one moves in a certain direction he is telling us that the others will do the same. The others may not follow the leader immediately but in due time they all take the same path. Of course there is the "black sheep" of the family who always does the opposite. The dollar can be counted on to just about always react in a negative fashion to the behavior of its relatives. We could say that they all react to market moving events the same way they always have.
The messenger that all four family members appear to be using, in order to inform us of their next move, is the Elliott Wave Theory. I believe the reason they all use the Elliott Wave Theory to communicate their next move is because the theory, in order to communicate effectively and clearly, demands a large participating audience. Crude oil, the dollar, gold, and silver have a world wide and large participating audience. The large volume and activity that this participating audience produces allows the Wave Theory to communicate clearly and accurately. This is not always the case with many items traded in the markets. The fact that the Wave Theory is not often communicating through many tradable stocks and commodities is probably the main reason why many folks don't put much value on it. I happen to agree with these folks with one major exception. The first thing I look for when reviewing the chart of any commodity, stock or index is evidence that the Wave Theory may be working and communicating its next move. I rarely find the Wave Theory working, but when it is communicating through an item it is a mighty powerful tool. That is why I always look for it first. It is true that I am almost always disappointed by its absence. However, I can say with confidence that according to my interpretation the wave theory is communicating loud and clear as to what its next move in crude oil, gold, silver and the dollar index will be. The main problem with anyone accepting my interpretation of the wave theory as it applies to crude oil, gold, silver, and the dollar index is there are other interpretations. However, my interpretation of the Wave Theory as applied to crude oil, gold, silver and the dollar index is the only interpretation that is reinforced by the Delta Long Term Turning points. That is a major advantage that no other interpretation has unless they are members of the Delta Society.
I believe that gold and crude oil are on the verge of starting their final C leg down of an A, B, C correction. Silver appears to have already started its C leg down. The dollar appears to be close to starting its C wave up to complete it's A, B, C long term bear market rally.
Crude oil topped in July 2006 and began an A, B, C, bull market correction. The C leg down should begin soon. When this correction is over crude oil will have completed its Major Wave Four.
CRUDE OIL WITH DELTA LONG TERM TURNING POINTS
Gold has completed five waves up and is about to begin its final leg C down of the correction that began in May 2006.
GOLD WITH DELTA LONG TERM TURNING POINTS
Silver, like gold, has completed five waves up and has already started its C leg down of an A, B, C correction.
SILVER WITH DELTA LONG TERM TURNING POINTS
The dollar has been correcting in an expanded flat correction. The B wave went slightly below the beginning of the A leg. It is possible that the C leg will top slightly higher than the A leg.
DOLLAR INDEX WITH DELTA LONG TERM TURNING POINTS
I am aware that my opinion regarding the next move in gold, silver, crude oil and the dollar is contrary to many opinions. However, I have no choice. I must convey to you what I believe the charts are saying.
If you would like to read more of my reports that provide timing
for investors and longer term traders they are available at;
Stay well,
Ron Rosen
Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.
Email this Article to a Friend 
Printer Friendly Version
