Trading Thoughts
from THE VALUE VIEW GOLD REPORT
Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS
TRADING THOUGHTS is about what the name in implies. The purpose of this publication is t o promote timely and profitable trading of precious metals. We do not believe every turn in the market can b e called. Our goal is that our recommendations should be profitable. These goals are not the same. Profits are the goal. Trades are not the goal. DO NOT EXPECT ALL RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE PROFITABLE. No system can achieve that lofty goal. TRADING THOUGHTS is not intended to be a lengthy news letter filled with witty comments. The goal is simply to state whether conditions in the precious metal ' s market are favorable or not. Traders are advised that unless they have exceptional experience not to trade against the basic trend. Trades against market trend not expected to be as productive as those with trend.
Basic Trend: Gold: Up Investors should focus on Buy signals. Strategy: Positive, per
Investment Policy of Oct 2004. Investment Policy: Looking for buy signals, and holding long-term core position.
One reader wrote in this week that the markets seem to have an " unconnectiveness . " While perhaps not a word in my spell check, it did seem to describe the situation. Tuesday
and Friday, for example, seem to be days that just popped out of no where.
Friday the employment numbers came out ,
and the report was not good.
Reality, though, has little influence on
the thinking of traders. Instantly their
little mouse brains decided that the bad
report meant the F ed would not raise
rates. In their logic that meant the U.S.
economy was poised for growth. "Buy
stocks and dollars, sell Gold," their
little mouse brains screamed.
As the day passed, the real world
reemerged. Sellers of stocks emerged
in triumph. Gold moved toward
recovery, but not enough of Friday
remained. Gold and Silver both finished
lower than would have been expected.
The intermediate indicator, right
bottom graph, moved further into over
sold territory as the week ended. That
condition sets the stage for a positive
week. Buyers of Gold should move
early in the week.
Basic Trend: Silver: Up Investors
should focus on Buy signals.
Strategy: Positive, Per Investment
Policy of October 2004 Investment
Policy: Emphasize Buys
Silver had started to put in place
beginning of next advance. Friday,
though, hurt it. Intermediate indicator,
bottom chart , continued to move
further into an over sold condition.
Silver traders realize that the beginning
of a move is developing. Buying of
Silver should be done early in week.
Foundation for next move is in place.
Reversals in Silver, sometimes also
Gold, seem to develop occasionally
when NASDAQ suddenly becomes
weak. A connection may exist. When
NASDAQ weakens, the funds may need
to adjust their leverage. Selling Silver
positions is one way of preventing cal l s
for more equity. These occasions are
usually attractive buying points.!
Recommendation: Buy on price
weakness early this week. Hold for
higher prices, and profits!
Your Eternal Optimist;
Ned W. Schmidt, CFA,CEBS
Click to email me: nwschmidt@earthlink.net
April 4, 2005
Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS is publisher of THE VALUE VIEW GOLD REPORT. That report now
includes a weekly message, TRADING THOUGHTS, to help investors identify timely points for buying
Gold and Silver. You can join him for the Gold Super Cycle at
http://home.att.net/~nwschmidt/Order_Gold_EMonthlyTT.html His monumental report, "$1,265
GOLD", which has now been read in 12 countries, has 255 pages and 98 graphs, is available at
www.amazon.com or from the author. Ned welcomes your comments and questions. His mission in life is
to rescue investors from the abyss of financial assets and the coming collapse of the U.S. dollar. He can
be contacted at nwschmidt@earthlink.net.
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