Trading Thoughts

from THE VALUE VIEW GOLD REPORT

Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS

TRADING THOUGHTS is about what the name in implies. The purpose of this publication is t o promote timely and profitable trading of precious metals. We do not believe every turn in the market can b e called. Our goal is that our recommendations should be profitable. These goals are not the same. Profits are the goal. Trades are not the goal. DO NOT EXPECT ALL RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE PROFITABLE. No system can achieve that lofty goal. TRADING THOUGHTS is not intended to be a lengthy news letter filled with witty comments. The goal is simply to state whether conditions in the precious metal ' s market are favorable or not. Traders are advised that unless they have exceptional experience not to trade against the basic trend. Trades against market trend not expected to be as productive as those with trend.

Basic Trend: Gold: Up Investors should focus on Buy signals. Strategy: Positive, per Investment Policy of Oct 2004. Investment Policy: Looking for buy signals, and holding long-term core position.

One reader wrote in this week that the markets seem to have an " unconnectiveness . " While perhaps not a word in my spell check, it did seem to describe the situation. Tuesday and Friday, for example, seem to be days that just popped out of no where.

Friday the employment numbers came out , and the report was not good. Reality, though, has little influence on the thinking of traders. Instantly their little mouse brains decided that the bad report meant the F ed would not raise rates. In their logic that meant the U.S. economy was poised for growth. "Buy stocks and dollars, sell Gold," their little mouse brains screamed.

As the day passed, the real world reemerged. Sellers of stocks emerged in triumph. Gold moved toward recovery, but not enough of Friday remained. Gold and Silver both finished lower than would have been expected.

The intermediate indicator, right bottom graph, moved further into over sold territory as the week ended. That condition sets the stage for a positive week. Buyers of Gold should move early in the week.

Basic Trend: Silver: Up Investors should focus on Buy signals. Strategy: Positive, Per Investment Policy of October 2004 Investment Policy: Emphasize Buys

Silver had started to put in place beginning of next advance. Friday, though, hurt it. Intermediate indicator, bottom chart , continued to move further into an over sold condition. Silver traders realize that the beginning of a move is developing. Buying of Silver should be done early in week. Foundation for next move is in place.

Reversals in Silver, sometimes also Gold, seem to develop occasionally when NASDAQ suddenly becomes weak. A connection may exist. When NASDAQ weakens, the funds may need to adjust their leverage. Selling Silver positions is one way of preventing cal l s for more equity. These occasions are usually attractive buying points.!

Recommendation: Buy on price weakness early this week. Hold for higher prices, and profits!

Your Eternal Optimist;


Ned W. Schmidt, CFA,CEBS

Click to email me: nwschmidt@earthlink.net

April 4, 2005


Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS is publisher of THE VALUE VIEW GOLD REPORT. That report now includes a weekly message, TRADING THOUGHTS, to help investors identify timely points for buying Gold and Silver. You can join him for the Gold Super Cycle at http://home.att.net/~nwschmidt/Order_Gold_EMonthlyTT.html His monumental report, "$1,265 GOLD", which has now been read in 12 countries, has 255 pages and 98 graphs, is available at www.amazon.com or from the author. Ned welcomes your comments and questions. His mission in life is to rescue investors from the abyss of financial assets and the coming collapse of the U.S. dollar. He can be contacted at nwschmidt@earthlink.net.

http://home.att.net/~nwschmidt/Order_Gold_EMonthlyTT.html