Volatility - An Old Concept Back in Vogue
You mean it's not all bullish all the time? Market prices are allowed to go down? In a December 4th article entitled Moonshine or Strychnine? we painted a bullish picture for stock market prices, while (biiwii being biiwii) hopefully allowing our current bearish real or fundamental view to shine through. Included was this bit about the VIX:
"The bears should not give up hope, however. That is a potential inverted head and shoulders bottom in the VIX (top in bullish sentiment) if the right side shoulder does not drop below 10. Something to keep an eye on. But thus far, if bullish euphoria can be seen as moonshine, then the VIX is the still out back behind the outhouse where they make the stuff."
The VIX did not drop below 10 and the major potential inverted head and shoulders pattern has remained intact. In fact, for added emphasis, a baby inverted H&S formed within the would-be major right shoulder and turned up with a vengeance.
Meanwhile, for rabid bears salivating over the idea that the market has finally given up the ghost, available evidence shows that nothing has been decided yet. Plenty of support exists at around the 1246 area on the S&P with a 38.2% fib retracement, previous resistance and support (yellow line) and a right tine bottom of a pitchfork thrown in for good measure.
The market's upward track into overbought conditions had been unsustainable. But this market is by no means broken. A big down day on big volume did not leave investors in a bullish frame of mind, but isn't that the whole point? Bottom line: The market is not broken despite some terrible op/ex volatility. Both bulls and bears are well advised to exercise caution until further clues come to light.
22 January 2006
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