UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE
For People Who Can Think July 16, 2008

SPECIAL MARKET UPDATE

Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD.

After being super BEARISH for longer than I care to remember; I got a BUY SIGNAL warning in the VIX Tuesday. Stocks may have bottomed Tuesday, intraday. If not, they could by Wednesday to Friday We got a 2 percent plus decline intraday Tuesday, which has the potential to satisfy capitulation requirements. However my EW labeling does allow for one more decline Should that occur over the next few days then there could be another 2 to 4 percent decline."
Tuesday also saw the second highest volume ever, 7.2 billion shares on the NYSE, further evidence of selling capitulation.

But its was not just the VIX and Volume that’s flashing BUY Warnings. The NYSE New Lows were the highest ever Tuesday. That too would suggest a selling capitulation. There were 1,333 New Lows Tuesday.

REMEMBER: NOTHING GOES IN A STRAIGHT LINE

SENTIMENT:
Sentiment readings have been oversold for more than 6 weeks but they have not flashed an all out major buy signal… but they are warning of a tradable rally.

NOTE;

Although I expect a decent Rally Lasting anywhere between 2 to 6 weeks
This is NOT, I repeat NOT the Beginning or resumption of the BULL MARKET – it will be only a correction in an ongoing BEAR MARKET.

Yesterday I saw the worst reading in the McClellan Oscillator Summation Index since September 1998, when it sat at negative -3,525. A month later, the Industrials were up 5 percent, two months later, they were up 16 percent, and a year and four months later, they were up 54 percent. So again, we seem to be seeing levels that suggest a bottom worth trading.

The Industrials ended down 92.65 points, closing at 10,962.54 Tuesday, a new closing low for the decline from October 2007, after hitting an intraday low of 10,827.71. NYSE volume was huge at 133 percent of its 10 day average, with downside volume leading at 71 percent, , with Plunge Protection Team intervention supporting markets from an all-out collapse. The S&P 500 hit a new low intraday of 1,200.44, stopping at round number support. The NDX hit a new low intraday of 1,761.08.

GOLD

The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index fell 13.52 points, closing at 455.81 Tuesday. August Gold closed flat at 972.6, and is sneaking up on it all-time high. Silver fell to 18.96,

Although I expect a minor pullback, DO NOT SELL your GOLD OR SILVER. This will be a Golden Opportunity to either add to your positions, or for you newcomers to begin BUYING.

GOOD LUCK, GOD BLESS and happy hunting

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Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD.
2078 Bonisle Circle
Palm Beach Gardens FL. 33418
aubiebat@yahoo.com
561-840-9767

Please Note: This article is for education purposes only and is designed to help you make up your own mind, not for me to make it up for you. Only you know your own personal circumstances so only you can decide the best places to invest your money and the degree of risk that you are prepared to take. The Information on data included here has been gleaned from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by me. Nothing stated in here should be taken as recommendation for you to buy or sell securities.