"Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse."
W.D.Gann
Report
To my knowledge the most significant event to occur in the markets in years has gone virtually unreported and unnoticed. In my opinion it is a powerful warning signal that difficult times are dead ahead. They will be the kind of difficulties that accompany a major bear market in the stock averages. I believe this signal is telling us that the bear market that began in the year 2000 in the stock averages has resumed. The Super Long Term Delta turning points have been warning us about this coming event.
The monthly charts of the S & P 500 and gold bullion posted below present a dire picture. A breakdown of the S & P 500 occurred 2 months prior to a breakout to a new all time high for gold bullion. This message should not be ignored. At the very least I would not be in a hurry to trade or sell any precious metal holdings. If you have not fully committed that portion of your assets earmarked for the precious metals market, the breakdown of the S & P 500 and breakout to new all time highs for gold bullion is telling you to do so now.
S & P 500 MONTHLY
GOLD MONTHLY
FROM THE FEBRUARY 1, 2008 REPORT
Super Long Term Delta (SLTD) # 14 High for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500.
"This SLTD series has never inverted in the 200 years of history shown in the Delta Book."
"The reason that SLTD # 14 is so important is because in the last 200 years, most of the major crashes began with the SLTD # 14."
"The last one was the 1987 crash. It was also the 1929 crash, the 1895 crash, the 1834 crash, etc."
"The 100% range for arrival of SLTD # 14 ends in March 2008."
"The chances that a new high will be made in the next six weeks are between slim and none."
"That confirms that the recent high of four months ago is, without doubt, the SLTD # 14 high."
"It is interesting that the SLTD # 14 high came in exactly with the LTD # 2 high. This is a set up for a major down move. My guess is that it will be closer to the 1929 down move than the 1987 down move."
Welles Wilder
FORBES Magazine (October, '80) singled out Mr. Wilder as "the premier technical trader publishing his work today."
BARRON'S (July '84) states that: "In 1978, the basis of mathematical analysis was expanded when J. Welles Wilder, Jr. published New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.
FINANCIAL WORLD (July '85) acknowledges that, "Over the years, Wilder has developed more accurate commodity trading systems and concepts than any other expert."
"My guess is that it will be closer to the 1929 down move than the 1987 down move."
Welles Wilder
S & P 500 MONTHLY
GOLD MONTHLY
"The stock averages measured in fiat currency are losing the race to gold, as measured in fiat currency. The stock averages are so far behind in this race that they are barely visible. So, let's not spend a lot of time pursuing a bull market in the stock averages. It does not exist. If you want to trade the fluctuations in the stock averages that is a different matter. Just make sure that you recognize that you are trading in a bear market and not a bull market when you trade the stock averages. There is a reasonable probability, based on certain Delta very Long Term turning points, that the stock averages as represented by the D. J. I. A. and the S & P 500, may within a month or two begin to experience a horrendous decline." …………. Ron Rosen January 2008
Charts with Delta short term, medium turn and long term turning points are reserved for subscribers. Subscriptions to the Precious Metals Market Timing Letter may be obtained through the Delta Society International site.
Stay well,
Ron Rosen
Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.
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