THE ROSEN MARKET TIMING LETTER
PRECIOUS METALS – FOREX - STOCK INDICES - COMMODITIES
“Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”
W.D.Gann
RONALD L. ROSEN
REPORT
It's time to root for the home team. The current game has become too lop-sided. The crowd has been rooting for the other side for a long time. The crowd has gotten over crowded. Yep, they have gotten so big they are worse than lop-sided. They are so over confident they won't see us coming. They think S & P means Small and Puny. We'll whack them on the side of the head and show them who's boss; well, at least for a little while, maybe a whole year. What the heck, we'll whiff them good and plenty. Strike one!
"The Greatest
Depression Under Way"
3-3-9
"KINGSTON, NY, 2, March 2009 - "The Greatest Depression" that The Trends Research Institute forecast, well before Wall Street or Washington would acknowledge recession, is upon us.
The global financial markets are collapsing.
All the pundit's cautious predictions and business media's hopeful expectations at the New Year for an economic turn around and imminent market bottom were dead wrong. There will be no turn around in the second quarter of 2009 or 2010 or 2011 America and much of the world has entered "The Greatest Depression."
The global financial system, built on endless supplies of cheap money, rampant speculation, fraud, greed, and delusion is terminally ill and will not be coaxed into remission by stimulus packages nor restored to health by government buyouts and bailouts.
There is no stock market bottom in sight. The only figure that can be forecast with confidence is that the Dow won't reach zero!"
Well, not so fast. Maybe the world is going to "Hell in a Hand Basket," but perhaps not right now. The chart formation and the Delta turning points for the S & P 500 are saying, "Whoa, wait a minute, or wait a few months, or maybe you just better slow down and postpone your death wishes for a whole year." The S & P 500 is shouting loud and clear for whoever will listen, "I'm going to scare those bears until they pack up and get out of town." I'll tell you what folks, we best stop, look, and listen. We might even want to place a small bet on the bull's side and make a few speculative dollars on the way up.
The formation that the S & P 500 has just about completed indicates that a potentially sharp, if not dynamic, rally may be about to take place starting in the month of March. There is even the probability that the rally, if one begins, may be huge and if so it could be discounting massive inflation. The S & P 500 may just be telling us that deflation is a dead issue. Our politicians make the rules, don't they?
If you want to play the game you must play by the rules, their rules, at least until they discover the Golden Rules.
There was a wonderful old black, now days he would be called African American, comedian by the name of Nipsy Russell. Way back in the late 1940's he did a stand up routine at the Baby Grand night club in Harlem, New York City. He started his routine by saying the political establishment in Washington, D. C. stood for "Institution, Constitution, and Proooosperity." Before he fully pronounced the last word we knew what he meant. The audience giggled and thought it was funny. Fast forward to the year 2009 and people are not laughing. If run away inflation takes hold we know the government of the United State of America will have chosen prostitution instead of hard earned prosperity. That will be their choice, not ours, but there is no law that says we can not attempt to benefit by their wayward ways.
The Diamonds (DIA) and the Spiders (SPY) are an easy way to participate in the potential rally. Just be sure to use stops and don't go overboard. There are more leveraged ways to participate but I do not recommend them.
"A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is 3-3-5, as shown in Figures 14 and 15. Since the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient downward force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction seems to inherit this lack of countertrend pressure and, not surprisingly, terminates near the start of wave A. Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zigzag.
Flat corrections usually retrace less of preceding impulse waves than do zigzags. They participate in periods involving a strong larger trend and thus virtually always precede or follow extensions." E. W. P.
This formation may simply be indicating that a rally is about to take place. However, there is also a good probability that a massive inflationary move up to new highs may be starting. I will be monitoring this potential move very, very carefully.
S & P 500 QUARTERLY
S & P 500 MONTHLY
Stay well,
Ron Rosen
Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.
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