PRECIOUS METALS – FOREX - STOCK INDICES - COMMODITIES
“Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”
W.D.Gann
RONALD L. ROSEN
“Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”
W.D.Gann
RONALD L. ROSEN
All subscribers have been given an early heads up warning that the HUI may be correcting and a bottom could take place sometime in April. However, now that the HUI is correcting, I suspect that more than a few subscribers are concerned that the HUI is going a great deal lower. How can you be reasonably confident that the HUI will not go a great deal lower? Well, hopefully I can do a bit of teaching tonight without my having to wear the dunce cap. So, here goes.
A number of analysts have written that the Elliott Wave Theory and a number of other technical measurements indicate that the HUI will be declining sharply. At least one analyst has written that the HUI will once again decline to 150. Since the HUI closed on April 3 at 307.44 that would be a huge decline. It appears to me that the HUI will test the 300 level and may go somewhat lower but not substantially lower. The reasons why are outlined below.
Welles Wilder created the following technical indicators:
The Technical Indicators listed above were first published in 1978 in a book titled, NEW CONCEPTS IN TECHNICAL TRADING SYSTEMS by J. Welles Wilder Jr.
In my opinion the most valuable indicators ever discovered are the DELTA TURNING POINTS. They are based on natural movement and are the result of research done by Jin Sloman. Mr. Wilder immediately recognized their extreme value and purchased them from Jim Sloman and then formed The Delta Society International.
When the Delta turning points were discovered in 1983 a study of various charts dating back about 200 years was undertaken. The turning point information was entered into a bank of computers. Delta's computer experts arrived at the dates and ranges for the Intermediate, Medium, and Long Term Delta Turning points for a number of commodities and stock groups. The due date, standard deviation, and 100% range for arrival was discovered for all of the Medium and Long Term Delta turning points. The purpose of this report is to demonstrate how they work and allow you to study their amazing effectiveness. For the purpose of demonstration I have applied the Delta Turning points to charts of the HUI gold stock index.
The 100% range for arrival of LTD # 6 high extends out to the week of February 25. Ltd # 6 high should not arrive after the week of February 25. LTD # 6 high arrived the week of February 20. LTD # 7 low arrived right on time in the week of March 18.
If the HUI is going to collapse down to the 150 level that means that LTD # 6 high arrived on April 3. This would be more than 6 weeks beyond its 100% range. This would be extremely unusual and not probable. Therefore LTD # 7 low did arrive in the week of March 18. The Long Term Delta turning points are now telling us that the HUI is moving up to LTD # 8 high due to arrive June 17. The standard deviation for arrival of LTD # 8 high is between May 13 and July 22. The only way I could say that the HUI began a major decline the week of April third that will take it below the low of Delta # 7 low is to believe that LTD # 8 high arrived in the week of April 3. That would mean that LTD # 8 high arrived within the standard deviation time of arrival for LTD # 7 low. That would be a rare occurrence indeed. I have never seen it happen before. However, that does not guarantee that it can not happen. Having studied Delta turning points for many, many years, I have learned not to worry about extremely rare early or late Delta turning points. The chart I am referring to is the HUI WEEKLY CHART # 1 posted below.
The HUI WEEKLY CHART # 2 shows the Delta medium turning points only. Medium # 1 high could not arrive on the week of April 3. April 3 would be more than 2 weeks beyond the 100% range for arrival of medium # 1 high. Medium # 1 high arrived where I placed the circle on the chart that says Med # 1. Medium # 2 was scheduled to be a low but it inverted to a high. Medium # 2 could not have arrived as a low on March 13 because its 100% range for arrival is no earlier than April 8. Therefore medium # 2 will arrive as a high. The standard deviation for arrival of medium # 2 high is April 22 to May 6. The HUI should not go below the low of the in between point (I.P.) before it arrives at medium # 2 high. That low is 254.95.
The HUI WEEKLY CHART # 3 shows the Delta Long Term and Medium Term turning points posted on the same chart.
Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.