Precious Metals Market Timing	RONALD L.ROSEN ALISTAIR GILBERT rrosen5@tampabay.rr.com June 2008

REPORT

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Blowin in the Wind

The test of the $850 level actually occurred on the second trading day of May 2008. I wrote that there was a gap at the $847.50 level on the gold chart. The gap will be closed at the $843.50 level. The gap exists between 843.50 and $847.50. I have spent untold numbers of hours trying to find the proper pattern that would fully explain why I believe the correction in gold has a high probability of bottoming after the gap is closed by a decline below the $843.50 level. I suggested that there probably were many sell stop orders just below the gap at the $843.50 level that would be executed by a drop somewhat below $843.50. However, I still could not find the pattern that fit. I started dreaming about patterns. Nothing helped. Once Alistair came aboard as my partner he and I began discussing the potential or probable corrective pattern that was taking place in the gold market. He and I spent hours discussing the possible patterns and wave counts. We agreed that the corrective pattern looked more like a mess than a clear and detectable wave pattern. We decided to try again tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, which we did but the result was the same, no decision on a wave count or pattern that made sense. Thursday night, May 12, I get a call and Alistair says, “Ron, you are going to love this. You were right all along.” Alistair e-mailed me his charts and showed me the pattern that fits to a high probability. I must emphasize the word probability because that is all we ever have when we believe we have the correct pattern and correct wave count. I told Alistair, “I may be correct about the price but I could not find the pattern or the wave count that fit.” He found the pattern, the wave count, and the time of a probable bottom for this correction in gold. The fact that I had looked at the correct pattern, I mean PROBABLE correct pattern, for months on end but didn’t recognize that it fit the current correction in gold really annoyed me. However, that’s what partners are for. I may have found the probable price for the bottom of the correction but we all know that, “Time is more important than price…” Thank you Alistair!

Now let’s see if I can explain this pattern in language that is understandable and makes sense to you. Before I start explaining the pattern that fits the current correction in gold it is important that I quote one of the last and most important paragraphs in the book, Elliott Wave Principle, written by Frost and Prechter.

“While wave structures can at times be difficult to interpret, while scenarios may have to be abandoned if future price behavior forces a change in the ordering of probabilities for various outcomes, overall the Wave Principle provides a stable perspective from which sensible advance planning is possible.”E. W. P. Pg. 239

ZIGZAG (5-3-5)

“A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C and subdividing 5-3-5. The top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A.”  E. W. P.

“Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three" (labeled X), producing what is called a double zigzag. The zigzags are labeled W and Y.” E. W. P.

Double Zig - Zag

You may have to spend a few minutes comparing this daily chart of gold to the double zig-zag pattern just above it. The final a, b, c that occurs after the (X) at the $931 high is what enabled us to project the probable final bottom of this correction in gold. In a zig-zag correction the length of the c wave often equals the length of the a wave. The length of the c wave is $63. The top of the b wave is $907.20.  Subtracting $63 from the top of the b wave at $907.20 provides us with a probable low for this gold correction of $844.20. I expect the gap at $843.50 to be closed. This may be the final bottom at wave (Y). It is probable that the bottom will be reached on June 23, plus or minus a few days. This will mean that ITD # 5 and MED # 3 will be arriving together approximately on June 23.

 Double Zig – Zag

GOLD DAILY

The weekly chart of gold shows that LTD # 3 low has a 100 % time of arrival as early as June 18. Medium # 3 low has a due date for arrival of June 18. June 23 is the day that provides sufficient time for this correction under the Fibonacci time requirements that we have written about.  June 23 is our choice for the day the gold correction that began on March 17, 2008 at $1,017.50 will probably bottom. This chart is a chart of the nearest most active futures contract. The numbers will differ somewhat from the spot contract.  This chart also shows LTD # 1 and LTD # 2 as highs. LTD # 2 was scheduled to be a low, however it inverted to a high. Of all the Delta turning points only # 1 and # 2 are capable of inverting. No others can or ever have. This is called the time inversion window.

 Double Zig - Zag

GOLD WEEKLY

Double Zig - Zag

GOLD DAILY

The HUI, a gold share index, also topped on March 17 at the 519.68 high. If the final a, b, c that ends at (Y) has the a leg equal to the c leg, the bottom should occur at approximately 383.64. The HUI made a low on Thursday of this week at 393.60. The closing price today, Friday, June 13, was 398.32. ITD #1, med #2, and LTD # 8, all lows, should arrive together on June 23, plus or minus a few days. We are almost there!

Double Zig - Zag

HUI DAILY

Silver has, at least momentarily, contained her cantankerousness and apparently joined the zig-zag parade. Silver should be bottoming at medium # 3 low and LTD # 2 low. Since silver is in the process of completing wave c of (Y) it should bottom in close proximity with gold.

 Double Zig - Zag

SILVER WEEKLY

The dollar’s LTD # 6 high has a standard deviation for arrival between 6/18 and 8/27. The dollar should be topping around the time gold, silver, and the HUI are bottoming. The next low for the dollar is LTD # 7 low. The due date for arrival of LTD # 7 low is 10/29.

DOLLAR WEEKLY

Crude oil has an LTD # 17 low due July 30. However, the 100% time of arrival is as early as June 4. We may see a corrective low for crude oil in a similar time frame to the lows in gold, silver, and the HUI. At that time the dollar should be topping.

CRUDE OIL

 The commercials are covering their shorts and going long.

(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 396,392
GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.

FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 06/10/08

GOLD 10 X 3 POINT AND FIGURE CHART

 SUMMARY

What more can I say other than this world wide market of ours is one of the best orchestrated plays that I have ever seen. The timing may be impeccable. The curtain may rise in about 10 to 15 days. We will be able to judge the performance in act one, scene one at that time. It would be fascinating if all of the actors showed up on the same day.

If you are an investor or an active trader who would like to know  the probable price and time for the turning points on gold, silver, the HUI gold share index, the S & P 500, the dollar, the euro, crude oil and various other indexes:

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Stay well,
Ron Rosen and Alistair Gilbert

M I G H T Y I N S P I R I T

Disclaimer: Thecontents of this letterrepresent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein isintended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor.Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believedto be reliable, butRonald L. Rosencannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result ofyour reliance on thisanalysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.