THE ROSEN MARKET TIMING LETTER

PRECIOUS METALS – FOREX - STOCK INDICES - COMMODITIES

“Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”
W.D.Gann

RONALD L. ROSEN

Over a century of evidence indicates that these two charts should not be separated.

There have been three major bear markets in the D. J. I. A., since the year 1900. Each major bear market in the D. J. I. A. has been accompanied by a bull market in gold and gold shares. The first two major bear markets in the D. J. I. A. did not end until the bottom green area was violated. The third and current major bear market has not yet gone below the bottom green area. This is powerful evidence that the bear market may not be complete but is ongoing.

Based on the previous bull markets in gold and gold shares the current gold bull market will not end until after the bear market in the D. J. I. A. ends.

The fuse in the gold bull market was activated when a new all time high above the decades old high of $850 an ounce occurred.

"When a stock or commodity advances into new territory or to prices which it has not reached for months or years, it shows that the force or driving power is working in that direction. It is the same principle as any other force which has been restrained and breaks out. …..The longer the time that elapses between the breaking into new territory, the greater the move you can expect, because the accumulative energy over a long period naturally will produce a larger movement than if it only accumulated during a short period of time." W. D. Gann

Gold topped in January 1980 at $850. Twenty-eight years later in January 2008 gold closed over $850. A great deal of energy has accumulated over that twenty-eight year period!

A fuse will not cause a bomb to explode until the propeller on the front of the fuse has rotated sufficiently. The propeller rotating lines up a hole in a disc inside the fuse with a firing pin. On contact with the ground the firing pin explodes the fuse which explodes the bomb.

The gold price has rotated sufficiently; the disc is lined up with the firing pin and on contact with and a close at a new high over $1,033.50 an ounce, the gold price will explode.

Everything I learned about fuses, bombs, and rockets I learned at Naval Aviation Ordinance School in Jacksonville, Florida. Everything I learned that was classified and top secret is now available on the internet! Times do change.

The D. J. I. A. has broken down from its French curve measurement and parabolic move.

Gold bullion has maintained its rising curve and has not broken down.

The chart posted below is a monthly chart of the S & P 500. The Delta Long Term turning points are in the squares at the top and bottom of the chart. The line that extends to the right and left of the turning points in the squares is the amount of time that the standard deviation for arrival covers. I have drawn vertical lines, as arrows, that indicate the month that each turning point arrived. The I. P. on the chart indicates where an inversion has taken place. Only # 1 and # 2 can invert. No other numbers can or ever have inverted. LTD # 5 high has or should arrive this month. If it has or when it does the S & P 500 should be moving down to LTD # 6 low. LTD# 6 low is due to arrive November 18, 2009. The standard deviation for arrival extends out to February 17, 2010. Even after 4 months of rallying for the S & P 500 the DMI indicator beneath the chart is still bearish, with the red line above the black line. The lines are still bearishly very far apart.

"Directional movement is the most satisfying concept I have studied. Defining it is a little like chasing the end of a rainbow….you can see it, you know it is there, but the closer you get to it the more elusive it becomes. I have probably spent more time studying directional movement than any other concept. Certainly one of my most satisfying achievements was the day I was actually able to reduce this concept to an absolute mathematical equation." Welles Wilder

Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.