THE YEAR 2K DERBY -- A Computer Parable

Think of the Year 2000 Problem as a type of Kentucky Derby - you know the horse race. A horse race where the line between horse, jockey and spectator is somewhat blurred. If a horse doesn't win the race, all three lose. Granted they lose for different reasons, but the effect is the same for all three.

Likewise, the Year 2000 Problem seems somewhat arcane at first glance. Who cares if a computer doesn't know what time it is? Large numbers of people don't even own a computer, much less know how to operate one. These are the spectators at our Year 2K Derby-the crowd in the grandstand screaming their lungs out for their jockey and horse to win. "But I am not even a gambler" and "I can't stand computers" you say. No matter. The spectators at this derby are every person on planet Earth. You see, whether you ever touch a computer mouse and keyboard; they touch you.

Advanced Western Civilization in particular, and the rest of the world in varying degrees, have placed a huge bet on this Year 2000 Derby. Each of us has bet our comfort and convenience, and possibly our lives, in this computer horse race. It is really quite simple. If Year 2000 turns out to be a nonevent, then things will go on as before with little disruption. But if the spectators bet wrong, then they will lose big. In other words, if we bet wrong on this one we are looking at eating Top Ramen noodles for a long time!

You ask how can this possibly affect me? Well, let's take a look at some of the horses in this derby. The horses are all the computer hardware, software and embedded microchips we have come to depend on to run our world. The software we use to run our banks and our ATM machines for instance. The software we use to run our Air Traffic Control System and our Rail Way system. Software that controls how we move people and things. Software and embedded microchips that control how we heat our homes, Drink our water, flush our toilets and light our cities. Software that controls how we communicate with one another verbally, electronically and financially. These are very important horses that we have bet on.

The horse Jockeys are also extremely important to us "spectators". Who are some of these "computer horse jockeys"? They are every person, nonprofit or for-profit corporation, small business entity, city, county, state or federal governmental agency using a computer for any reason at all. And you, the spectator, are every person affected by all these "jockeys" using their "horses" to run the Year 2000K Derby.

Look over there. I see some of the jockeys and horses starting to line up at the starting gate. Isn't that jockey and horse your local power company? And that one over there-isn't that your local bank where you use the ATM machine, have a checking account with automatic bill payment and a debit card? There is your phone company. Are those some government jockeys prancing around quite a ways back from the starting gate? Is that the Pentagon? I can't make them out clearly but they seem to be from Social Security, the Federal Aviation Administration and a host of local and State agencies. Better hurry up or they will miss the starting gun! So you see you have a vested interest in this derby because of who the horses and jockeys are.

Now in the real Kentucky Derby it might be possible to delay the start time for a few minutes. Say Uncle Bubba got into some moonshine and tried to run around the track naked a few times before security hauled him Or maybe the weather was real away. So bad and they decided to wait a day or two. But not in our Year 2000 Derby. One thing is absolutely certain about this Year 2000 thing. It will start at one second after midnight December 31st, 1999 -0001 January 1st, 2000 in military time. Not one second sooner and not one second later. Period. All the horses and jockeys have until that precise moment to get ready and be at the starting gate. The starting gun will go off then and the race will start. The horses and jockeys that are ready will start and those that are not ready will not start. If you bet on a horse and jockey that are not ready you will lose.

Actually, it is not quite that simple. For instance, there is a testing and certification process going on right now for the race. Some horses and jockeys seem not to know when the race starts and so are not preparing for it at all-they are not even at the racetrack. These are the people who are in denial about the seriousness of the Year 2000 Problem. Others have underestimated the difficulty and will still be in the stables putting their saddles on when the race starts. These are the people who are still studying the problem and analyzing it right up to the start date. Still others know of the race starting time, but will flunk the pre-race drug screen. These are the people and companies who have "fixed" the Year 2000 problem but found bugs in their solutions. And because the race start time is fixed, they won't be able to test their solutions in time. Hopefully, some horses and jockeys will be ready. They will run the race and win-gaining market share and victory at the expense of their ill prepared competitors. So it goes until 0001-1-1-2000.

How will your horse and jockey fare? Will they be ready and able to start the Year 2000 Derby on time? And if they are not, will you personally be ready and able to deal with it? After all, you have bet more than you can afford to lose on this horse race. Think about it.

Doug McIntosh 20 July 1998