All systems that fail will do so at exactly the same time ~ who will decide priorities?

Yes, there are more Y2K activity meetings, discussions and waffle but because there is a need for a different approach to the Y2K issue, where people such as Dr Ed Yardeni are taken far more seriously http://www.yardeni.com/y2kreporter.html than is at present apparent.

Even with a high % of Critical Systems "Y2K compliant" & TESTED we will not know, with any degree of certainty, that success has been achieved until things start to roll in January 2000.

Last week a company DRI Legasys group of Canada claims to be able to help companies falling behind with Y2K, in that it will scan millions of lines of code & in addition slash the time for testing. However, there is no mention of any benefits in resolving the problem with embedded chips. If they can speed up the process so much the better ~

Never the less the problem is GLOBAL and as such requires GLOBAL cooperation on a scale never before considered, this cooperation needs to overcome religious beliefs & political ideals to a degree where trust occurs out of the need for self-preservation. To put world leaders efforts at cooperation in perspective think about the Horn of Africa where civil wars have raged for 15 years or more and they are still on the verge of starvation.

Meanwhile the increasing number of Americans moving to Y2K villages are stocking up on long life PermaPak food water storage, power generation and survival equipment, which is forward thinking for the family unit, however with a multiple "nuclear meltdown or worse" the fallout would …well who knows……..?

There are also many suggestions on the "best "investments or how to protect your wealth" from the probability of runs on banks etc however with threat of a nuclear Meltdown or accidental ICBM Launch followed by the inevitable retaliation these forward thinking people's efforts will be in vain.

Russia has only just become aware of the Y2K problem and its possible consequences (I use aware in its simplest meaning) and does not have the resources or maybe even the will to tackle the issue. The greatest concern has to be Russia's and its former satellite countries, aging nuclear power stations, rotting nuclear submarines and weapons and the structure of its computer systems.

Russia relies for most of its energy on nuclear power and their approach to safety is not very encouraging just think back to Chernobyl. Consider also the decommissioned Nuclear Subs at Murmansk plugged into the local power plant, which will presumably shut down Jan 1 2000, these subs will melt down and that is just one problem.

RUSSIAN ROULETTE

Is a dangerous "game" when you know you are playing but when unaware of your participation it is deadly .The world is currently engaged in RUSSIAN ROULETTE and most are not aware of its existence let me explain…..

Russia, as many of you are aware is going through the worst of financial problems and heading for a meltdown situation -- and even when money is loaned it would appear that it is " misappropriated" --- Please see Princeton Economic institute paper http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/RUSIA798.HTM

The Russian Mafia mentioned in the above links will want to "spend & enjoy" this money - and surely their plans go further than December 31st 1999 ~ ~ at the same time they must be well aware of the shortages in Russia…

The apparent lack of concern that Y2k will effect THEM would indicate their underestimation of this problem, even if they were no more than 10 minutes from the nearest Nuclear Bunker

Read this link next http://www.forbes.com/tool/html/98/jul/0717/feat.htm parts 1 Dr.Y2K Strangelove and part 2, Vacuum tubes and the old legacy code =15 Minutes to Launch

The pages of 15 minutes to launch should have us all worried as there may come a time when the only option for Russia will be a military take over with yet more upheaval and over reaction None of which will resolve their Y2k problem.

From the above report (15 minutes to launch) it would appear that measures of economy dictated not only a tamper resistant code but also default launch system which "cannot be overridden" although with the right skills & thinking this COULD be overcome. The difficulty may even require Russians Disconnecting or removing the warheads (obviously not all at once, but well before 31st December 1999) in to facilitate this.

Somehow, the USA has to win the Russians' trust to be able to assist with their critical Y2K problems, an uphill task (made worse by the IMF approach to solving Russia's financial problems) and a long history of mistrust.

Scared? -- You Should Be

1. Accidental ICBM Launch and retaliation.
   
2. Nuclear power plants thought to be compliant, but not leading to MELTDOWN
   
3. Point 2 but in multiple locations around the Globe.
   
4. Damaged biological warfare installations.
   
5. Fallout from points 1,2,3
   
6. Contaminated food supplies
   
7. Disrupted communications (or none at all)
   
8. Limited power supplies
   
9. Civil unrest looting ~ FEAR of the Unknown ~
   
10. All systems that fail will do so at exactly the same time
    
11. Medical facilities & emergency services stretched and unable to cope
    
12. Fires out of control
    
13. Etc.
    

What Can Be Done?

1. Ignorance must be overcome Too few people fully comprehend the size and implications of Y2K - and continue to deny the existence of the problems in the belief that Bill gates will ride to the rescue, positive thinking we need ~ but wishful thinking and blind optimism we do not need.
   
   
2. Nuclear issues This means having contingency plans to shut down nuclear plants where there is any chance of failure, this would entail a global build up of alternative energy resources.
   
   
3. Nuclear Weapons. There have bean times when ICBM's have almost been launched in the cold war, so it has to be conceivable that with a very good chance of multiple system failures, of this becoming a reality. With global positioning systems likely to malfunction these weapons could go anywhere.
   
   
4. The Pentagon have already offered assistance to Russia with early warning systems but at the time we are led to believe that the Russians did not take Y2K seriously. There appears to be no alternative than genuine cooperation to neutralize this threat. PLEASE Re Read 15 Minutes to Launch. I find it chilling, don't you? And time IS running out.
   
   
5. Time a resource we cannot afford to waste lets delay the EURO and release those IT skills to address THE WORLD'S CRITICAL SYSTEMS
   
   
6. Make the general Public aware that things will get worse before they get better…..
   
   
7. Contingency planning must be stepped up to preserve the infrastructure and make the general public aware that they have a part to play.
   
   

In case you did not follow the link from 15 Minutes To Launch please do so now. The day computers stood still http://www.forbes.com/tool/html/98/jul/0717/side1.htm

Chris Osborne 29 July 1998

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