Copyright © 1997 - 1999 vronsky and westermanEditors Comment: The following are excerpts from the outstanding book: "The Survivor's Guide to the Year 2000: How to keep running when the world stops" by David G. Epp
The Survivor's Guide to the Year 2000:
How to keep running when the world stopsStep right up and spin the Big Year 2000 Wheel ...$2,400 per oz gold...$100 per oz silver...Dow 4000... or the really BIG Prizes (according to Clinton): cyber-terrorism and biological warfare? Will you be a winner, or a loser after the year 2000? How about one million dollars cash - or better still, a million in gold - by the end of 1999?
You can take advantage ... or you can join the throngs whose folly cost them dearly. This may truly be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The choice is yours: to preserve your mental and physical health, or to risk everything. Either way, you will spin. And do you know the best part?
Savvy investors would still be buying the metals TODAY, even if there were no Y2K crisis. The fundamentals are that good. And the state of the global economy is that dire.
Over the next ten to fifteen years, we believe that there will come a time of unprecedented prosperity ... Borders will fall. New virtual countries will emerge as technology refashions a seamless world, a unified garment of every texture and color. These new times, however, must be ushered in by great changes. The events which are coming will build up some nations and break others; make princes of some and paupers of others. Do you know for certain which one you will be - and why? Do you understand the economy and the market well enough to stake your entire future on what you know today?
Three Converging Global Events:
In The Survivor's Guide to the Year 2000, we introduce investors to three, powerful, converging events that will make what we are saying possible. (1) The Year 2000 computer crisis. (2) The predicted stock market crash of 1999. (3) The economic tumult and panic which will usher in a new world system. We liken the Y2K crisis to a trigger on a wall street weapon that will ruthlessly murder our national and global economies.
We don't have the space here to prove all that we are saying. That's what the book is for. Perhaps you don't need convincing. You suspect there is a problem but you find yourself denying or doubting that a catastrophe of this magnitude could happen - or that it could be predicted in advance. You might then wonder how Clinton can predict that "cyber terrorism" and biological warfare are "highly likely" to threaten national security in 2000 and beyond. You don't think he is going to blame terrorists for Y2K, do you? ...or take over the economy...or the Internet and e-commerce...or rescue collapsing banks, companies or markets...for the sake of "national security"? Do you?
Do you find yourself grappling with a little denial? The prospect of a major global collapse and realignment is more pill than most of us can swallow. We empathize. And as we have been reminded while writing this Guide, just because something is very obvious...or unbelievable...or shocking...does not mean that it cannot or will not happen. We call it Noah's Ark Syndrome, and it's just as powerful today as it was in Noah's day. How about you? Are you working on a well thought out contingency plan, or are you still denying that it could "rain"?
By the way, the author has an rock-solid record as a financial analyst, newsletter editor, and a stock/options and metals trader (his wife is a senior systems analyst working on Y2K). His recent market predictions (from 1997, both in the Guide, and repeated on TV and talk-radio), were deadly accurate: Dow correction of 20 percent (at Dow 9200), followed by a snap-back rally to around Dow 10000. Then, volatility, with a downward bias, and the BIG ONE! A selloff of 40 to 60 percent on the Dow ... weakness beginning late in Q1, and accelerating dramatically by the end of Q3 as panic finally strikes. His final target for the Dow is 4300.
Should you buy gold? When? The author warned overly optimistic gold bugs that gold and silver, as a commodity, would continue to fall in price through 1998. After all, we are going into a short, but severe, recession - no matter what you hear. Clinton will "juice up" the economy, as he promised; interest rates will rise soon, followed by hyper-inflation by the year 2000. That's when conditions are right for gold. Details about the history of money, and why everyone should own gold, are included in the Guide.
Dollar cost average into a few select mining stocks like CDE, NEM, ALTA and GLDR. For more leverage buy, and trade, Y2K OR 2001 XAU (Philadelphia Gold & Silver Exchange) call options (leaps). Profit from volatility and panic even before the metals explode! Compare the S&P 500 chart with the XAU to see the correlation. The US dollar will be hit hard when the market unwinds. So you get a 2 for 1 special if you own gold. Buy quality gold mutual funds if you aren't confident about picking the winners. By the way, experienced day-traders, like the author, make 50 to 75 percent per month on "safer" metals-related options trades. Did you know that $3,000 becomes $1 million, in only 10 trades, if you double each time? Who says you can't go from rags to riches overnight? If you know how.
For more conservative investors, we suggest silver bullion coins (especially Canadian Maples, .9999 pure silver, with a $5 face value in case you need to barter in an emergency), and gold bullion coins (Maples or Eagles). And the Canadian Mountie has a guaranteed value of $310 US through the year 2000. Next, look at "junk bags," silver dollars from 1950's - 60's, other numismatic coins (not as easily confiscated), then bullion bars or wafers. Keep buying until you hit your comfort level.
The author suggests 30 percent. His personal portfolio is closer to 70 percent in metals, with up to 20 percent to short high-flying, high-PE stocks.
Worried about gold being confiscated? Don't. That's exactly what the government and the banks want. Plan ahead, instead. As we said in the book, in the 1930s, Americans who sold gold to the Feds for a profit were still better off than those who simply suffered through a devaluation. And, some numismatic coins were not confiscated - including the ones they didn't know about. Be creative. Use cash, while you still can. Think about keeping some coins or cash in other countries, like Canada, eh? or Switzerland. You can open accounts by mail, or have a friend rent a safe deposit box. Use cash.
To help investors get a handle on the history and influences on the price of gold, we include a section entitled "The Wonderful Wizard of Ounces." You will never look at Scarecrow or Tin Man the same way again...or your dollar bills or government leaders, for that matter. In the story, they are the Wizards and Witches who control banking and the money supply. You didn't know you were a "Munchkin" did you? We are just the little people who don't understand a thing about real money and banking - or so the government believes. It is a real eye opener. Don't be like every other munchkin on your block and just "follow the yellow brick road." Buy it!
After you get done with the chapter on banking, and a funny story explaining the fractional reserve system and how Clinton and Gore might handle the Y2K problem...you will rush out and buy all the "real money" you can get your hands on! To quote a couple of great Americans: "In the absence of a gold standard there is no way to protect savings...There is no safe store of value..." Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan
Thomas Paine insisted that paper currency should only be accepted in the marketplace if backed by a promise to redeem the notes in "specie" - gold or silver. Our dollars (silver certificates) had that promise until the late 1960s. Do you Trust in God, like your dollar bill states? The government hopes you do - at least in this one regard, 'cause that's where you will have to go if you want your money. The government spent yours, legally of course. Thomas Paine worried about that too, and added that the punishment of any legislator who would "move for such a law ought to be death." And you thought we were a little outspoken? My how times have changed.
When should you buy the metals? TODAY!!! Metals move very rapidly, and mostly all at once. Silver is showing signs of life at $5.80, as are the mining stocks. Gold will likely follow in 30 to 45 days. Bullion coins are under accumulation BIG TIME right now! Silver Maples tripled their normal volumes in Canada. No more available through normal sources, including Canadian banks. The Mint is not planning for a shortfall. Dave Madge, head of the Canadian Mint, was quoted in a Toronto newspaper as not getting the connection between gold and the Y2K crisis. Duh! The American Mint is not much more aware. "Smart money" is quietly moving in to scoop up undervalued treasure; one American bought $15 million in gold coins from the Canadian Mint. I guess he believes there will be a problem...or a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to PROFIT. What do you think? Opportunity is pounding on your door!
David Epp
"The Survivor's Guide to the Year 2000:
How to keep running when the world stops"
(Available at y2kbook@telusplanet.net or Amazon.com,
ISBN 0969471033)
Copyright © 1997 - 1999 vronsky and westerman