Germany's Commerzbank is bullish on gold for 2014...seeing $1,400
Berlin (Dec 7) Commerzbank’s commodity strategists said on the subject this morning as they look to 2014 — they expect gold’s price to retake $1,400 by the end of next year:
The two most important negative factors for investment demand this year – higher real interest rates and the upward movement in the equity markets – should become less important in 2014. Our economists expect the US Federal Reserve to start scaling back its bond purchasing programme from March/April. As soon as the first step has been taken, the associated uncertainty should be dispelled and the pressure on the gold price should ease. For bond purchases can be expected to be reduced gradually and expectations about an interest rate hike by the Fed to be kept in check verbally. This could prevent any sharper rise in longterm interest rates. Inflation rates are also likely to increase again from their currently very low level, thus preventing a further rise in real interest rates next year. Nor is it realistic to expect the US equity market to move up again by 25% in 2014 on the back of a less expansionary US monetary policy.