Gold Price Weaker as Bearish Charts, Stronger U.S. Dollar Index Keeping Buyers Leery
New York (July 30) Gold prices ended the U.S. day session modestly lower and trading not far above the recent 5.5-year low Thursday. The bears remain confident, what with a lack of bullish fundamental inputs, a rebound in the U.S. dollar index this week, and a very bearish technical posture for the precious metal. December Comex gold was last down $3.90 at $1,089.40 an ounce. September Comex silver was last down $0.043 at $14.70 an ounce.
There has been little risk aversion in the world market place this week, as there are no fresh, major geopolitical developments to cause traders and investors to fret or to snap up safe-haven gold. Global stock markets were mixed overnight. Asian stocks were down, with China’s Shanghai stock index down 2.2% on the day. European stocks were firmer. U.S. stock indexes traded mixed Thursday.
Thursday’s U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product report came in on the low side of expectations, at up 2.3%. Analysts were forecasting the GDP figure to come in at up 2.7%. The first-quarter GDP number was upwardly revised, to somewhat mitigate the weaker-than-expected second-quarter reading. The gold market paid very little attention to the GDP report.
The solid rebound in the U.S. dollar index this week is a bearish “outside market” element working against the precious metals bulls. Also, crude oil prices this week hit a four-month low and are still trading below $50.00 a barrel. As long as crude oil remains in a major bear market, it will be tough for most raw commodity markets to establish solid price uptrends.
Traders and investors have had time to digest Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement. While many viewed the statement as neutral (favoring neither the monetary policy hawks nor the doves), some are saying the wording in the release better suggests the Fed will move to raise U.S. interest rates in September. There are two U.S. jobs reports due before the September FOMC meeting. Those two reports are likely to heavily influence FOMC members’ decisions on a rate hike at the September meeting.
There was an upbeat economic report coming out of the European Union Thursday. The Economic Sentiment Indicator in July came in at 104.0 from 103.5 in June—the highest level in four years. This report suggests European businesses and consumers are putting the Greek debt crisis behind them.
The London P.M. gold fix is $1,087.50 versus the previous A.M. fix of $1,085.65.
Technically, December gold futures prices closed near mid-range. Gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,133.80. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,073.70. First resistance is seen at $1,100.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,104.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,081.50 and then at $1,073.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0
September silver futures prices closed near mid-range. Silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $15.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $14.90 and then at $15.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $14.58 and then at this week’s low of $14.495. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.
September N.Y. copper closed down 290 points at 237.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Copper bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 250.00 cents.
Source: KitcoNews
