Large Currency Speculators Cut Their US Dollar Bullish Bets For 6th Week

US Dollar net speculator positions fell last week to +$32.25 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators decreased their overall net bullish positions for the US dollar last week for a sixth consecutive week and to the lowest level since September 2014.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $32.25 billion as of Tuesday May 5th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.50 billion from the $34.75 billion total long position that was registered on April 28th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data puts the US dollar speculative level at a new lowest level since September 16th when net positions equaled $31.42 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso.

Notable Changes:

• The euro bets rose for a 2nd week by +7,639 contracts to improve to the best level since March
• British pound sterling positions gained by +9,370 contracts to land at the best level since February
• Japanese yen bets dropped after gaining for the previous 3 weeks and fell back to a bearish position of over -30,000 contracts
• Swiss franc bets gained for a 4th week to raise its bullish position to +5,331 contracts
• Canadian dollar bets rose for a 3rd week to level at a bearish position of -10,080 contracts. This is the lowest bearish position since October
• Australian dollar bets rose sharply last week to a small bullish position (+626 contracts) for the first bullish position since September 2014
• New Zealand dollar positions slightly declined after seven weeks of rises that moved the NZD into bullish territory
• Mexican Peso bets declined for a 3rd week and dropped further into bearish territory after one week in bullish territory on April 14th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date	Open Interest	Specs Long	Specs Short	Com Long	Com Short	Net Com	Com Chg	Net Specs	Specs Chg
03/31/2015	459746	41709	268269	372420	97951	274469	2614	-226560	-5597
04/07/2015	441624	39444	254702	356228	96223	260005	-14464	-215258	11302
04/14/2015	453518	45264	257611	358360	101060	257300	-2705	-212347	2911
04/21/2015	457610	46821	261466	361058	102833	258225	925	-214645	-2298
04/28/2015	456919	50734	248500	356986	116294	240692	-17533	-197766	16879
05/05/2015	449254	50116	240243	343981	116070	227911	-12781	-190127	7639

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date	Open Interest	Specs Long	Specs Short	Com Long	Com Short	Net Com	Com Chg	Net Specs	Specs Chg
03/31/2015	182514	35143	71773	130848	75229	55619	-3239	-36630	1927
04/07/2015	185219	37641	71942	130411	78813	51598	-4021	-34301	2329
04/14/2015	189513	33993	70038	136944	79221	57723	6125	-36045	-1744
04/21/2015	175066	34830	64111	124700	77203	47497	-10226	-29281	6764
04/28/2015	171698	33239	67367	118250	73492	44758	-2739	-34128	-4847
05/05/2015	173468	34304	59062	117555	87212	30343	-14415	-24758	9370

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date	Open Interest	Specs Long	Specs Short	Com Long	Com Short	Net Com	Com Chg	Net Specs	Specs Chg
03/31/2015	177478	44409	68333	116378	53965	62413	-23565	-23924	21981
04/07/2015	189444	53320	77769	118118	54475	63643	1230	-24449	-525
04/14/2015	195230	54783	77853	121029	64194	56835	-6808	-23070	1379
04/21/2015	189332	51520	65968	120368	70330	50038	-6797	-14448	8622
04/28/2015	188079	48721	54214	118521	85966	32555	-17483	-5493	8955
05/05/2015	198886	41852	73035	139448	72449	66999	34444	-31183	-25690

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date	Open Interest	Specs Long	Specs Short	Com Long	Com Short	Net Com	Com Chg	Net Specs	Specs Chg
03/31/2015	34149	13679	12973	14653	4497	10156	-2746	706	4661
04/07/2015	33245	12746	12626	13347	4548	8799	-1357	120	-586
04/14/2015	33935	12240	12070	14628	4733	9895	1096	170	50
04/21/2015	31727	11105	10770	13105	6074	7031	-2864	335	165
04/28/2015	31585	11144	9809	13114	7268	5846	-1185	1335	1000
05/05/2015	34449	14174	8843	12091	11680	411	-5435	5331	3996

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date	Open Interest	Specs Long	Specs Short	Com Long	Com Short	Net Com	Com Chg	Net Specs	Specs Chg
03/31/2015	110447	18771	48389	66324	21992	44332	-5151	-29618	3038
04/07/2015	114881	22081	52100	67159	23581	43578	-754	-30019	-401
04/14/2015	118686	23020	53598	66797	24088	42709	-869	-30578	-559
04/21/2015	126801	33343	60394	64497	30901	33596	-9113	-27051	3527
04/28/2015	128938	33858	54767	64232	39337	24895	-8701	-20909	6142
05/05/2015	122108	30028	40108	63415	49852	13563	-11332	-10080	10829

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date	Open Interest	Specs Long	Specs Short	Com Long	Com Short	Net Com	Com Chg	Net Specs	Specs Chg
03/31/2015	138260	55814	80170	66179	20286	45893	-4428	-24356	4012
04/07/2015	159532	55928	96209	89081	21243	67838	21945	-40281	-15925
04/14/2015	161971	55077	97510	92927	21531	71396	3558	-42433	-2152
04/21/2015	153363	55570	90233	83040	23795	59245	-12151	-34663	7770
04/28/2015	140298	53753	81158	67196	22618	44578	-14667	-27405	7258
05/05/2015	137001	59033	58407	57213	44377	12836	-31742	626	28031

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date	Open Interest	Specs Long	Specs Short	Com Long	Com Short	Net Com	Com Chg	Net Specs	Specs Chg
03/31/2015	24049	16443	12412	4473	5776	-1303	-4360	4031	4897
04/07/2015	24920	16950	11172	4489	8929	-4440	-3137	5778	1747
04/14/2015	25176	17081	11078	4579	9134	-4555	-115	6003	225
04/21/2015	26617	18473	9985	4241	11950	-7709	-3154	8488	2485
04/28/2015	28071	18281	8101	5134	15431	-10297	-2588	10180	1692
05/05/2015	28379	19585	10521	4813	13039	-8226	2071	9064	-1116

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date	Open Interest	Specs Long	Specs Short	Com Long	Com Short	Net Com	Com Chg	Net Specs	Specs Chg
03/31/2015	157688	43289	73578	106671	72784	33887	-11456	-30289	10811
04/07/2015	151072	42185	65110	101214	75811	25403	-8484	-22925	7364
04/14/2015	130501	63521	55160	59830	65310	-5480	-30883	8361	31286
04/21/2015	118074	50343	64018	60891	43780	17111	22591	-13675	-22036
04/28/2015	138497	38003	61394	78510	51737	26773	9662	-23391	-9716
05/05/2015	146418	24046	74162	102349	49406	52943	26170	-50116	-26725

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

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