The Dow Jones to Move on to New All-Time Highs
As usual, we begin with examining the Dow Jones’ Bear’s Eye View Chart, or the Dow Jones as Mr Bear understands it; in terms of new all-time highs (0.0% = BEV Zero), and the negative percentage claw-backs from those BEV Zeros.
This week, the Dow Jones made two new BEV Zeros, on Monday and Tuesday, closing the week deep into scoring position, only 0.84% from its last all-time high seen on Tuesday. This week’s new all-time highs were the Dow Jones’ 90th, and 91st since entering scoring position in November 2023, as seen in the chart below.
Since the Dow Jones entered into scoring position (began its current advance) two and a half years ago, as expected, for the most part it has daily closed in scoring position; daily closings not at new all-time highs, but above the BEV -5% line. It has also seen two corrections; a 15% correction in April 2025, and a 10% correction just this April.
So, how far will the Dow Jones rise in this current phase of the advance, Dow Jones trading at what? Well, Mr Bear doesn’t think of the Dow Jones in terms of dollars. In this advance’s first BEV Zero on 13 December 2023, the Dow Jones closed at 37,090. This week on Tuesday, the latest Dow Jones’ all-time high closed at 52,002. Just another BEV Zero piling up on the Red 0.0% line in the BEV chart below. To Mr Bear, its latest all-time high is no different from the other ninety new all-time highs the Dow Jones has seen since November 2023.
So, why all the rigmarole with this Bear’s Eye View stuff. Looking at the Dow Jones for the past ten years, I can understand someone not being impressed with the BEV. However, looking at the history of the Dow Jones, from its very beginning in February 1885, displaying the Dow Jones via the Bear’s Eye View format, allows us to directly compare any bull and bear market, with any other, for the past 141 years – in terms of new all-time highs, and negative percentage claw-backs from them.
Let’s look at the Dow Jones in BEV format since January 1978 in the chart above. The first BEV Zero in the chart above, or new all-time high happened on 03 November 1982, when the Dow Jones closed at 1,065.49. The Dow Jones then remained in scoring position for the next year, advancing to 1,278.2, the last BEV Zero, or Terminal Zero (TZ) of that 20% advance, before seeing a 16% correction in July 1984.
This is the really nice thing about the BEV Format; it displays market claw-backs in very specific percentage terms, percentage claw-backs that can be compared to any other claw-back from many decades ago.
Another nice thing about the BEV Format, we can create a frequency distribution table of the data, as seen below. The 0% row gives the exact number of new all-time highs the Dow Jones has seen since January 1978: 914, or 7.48% of the 11,113 daily closings of the past forty-four years. Those 914 BEV Zeros took the Dow Jones from 817.74 on 03 January 1978, up to 52,002.94 this week on Tuesday.
The -0.001% row gives the exact number of days the Dow Jones closed in scoring position. Those daily closings not at a new all-time high, but above the BEV -5% line: 4,845, or 39.66% of the 11,113 daily closings of the past forty-four years, have closed in scoring position.
To compute the percentage of daily closings the Dow Jones has advanced in a bull market for the past forty-four years, add the Percent of Total Days for the 0% and -0.001% rows = 47.14% of the daily closes since January 1978. Or since 1978, about every other day, the Dow Jones was advancing in a bull market.
There hasn’t been a more bullish period in the history of the Dow Jones. Not since 1885, has the Dow Jones seen so many new all-time highs, and closes in scoring position, as it has since January 1978. But then, before January 1978, the idiots at the FOMC weren’t “injecting” their “liquidity” (monetary inflation), daily into the stock market, to “stabilize market valuations.”
As seen in the quotes above, the idiots haven’t attempted to hid exactly what they are doing in the stock market.
Thanks to the idiots at the FOMC, the Dow Jones has advanced from below 800 in August 1982, to over 52,000 this week; a historic inflationary boom, that one day must go bust. A pending, and very depressing bear market bottom, that none of my readers will want exposure to.
But I’ll not make many friends dwelling on that. So, let’s now look at the Dow Jones in its daily bars below. We see this week’s two new all-time highs, and in dollars for those who prefer them that way. After this week, Dow Jones at 53,000 came into view on the chart. Who knows, Dow Jones 55,000 may become a fact of life by Christmas, and Dow Jones at 60,000 a year from now.
The idiots at the FOMC could make the Dow Jones at 60,000 a fact of life by the close of next week. But that would be a little too much for anyone to believe as something reasonable, without them asking too many pesky questions. From this week’s close, the Dow Jones at 60,000 is only a 15% advance. Maybe it’s best to make everyone wait another year for that.
If 60,000 on the Dow Jones by June 2027 is locked in, why are you always so negative on the stock market? Because between here, and there, many things could happen to prevent exactly that from happening; 60,000 on the Dow Jones. What type of things? Two of many of things that could pop this bubble, may be rising bond yields, or another bear market in single family housing.
So, what is happening with bond yields? Not that anyone is pointing this market fact to the public, the * BOND BEAR-MARKET * that began in August 2020 is still ongoing; T-bond yields still slowly rising. Not so much that rising yields are currently attracting much attention. But professional, and public attention to rising bond yields will come later, when the debt market enters a crisis.
When will that be? Hey, I haven’t a clue. I’m only a market enthusiast, not some type of investment advisor, as I’m not! But looking at the bond yield data I do have, this is not the time for locking in returns in the bond market for the next decade, or more.
As per what is shown below (black plot), on a yield basis, there isn’t much to be gained by buying a 30Yr T-bond, as opposed to buying a 2Yr T-bill. For those seeking income, while conserving their investment capital, the 2Yr T-bill reduces one’s market risk in our ongoing * BOND BEAR-MARKET *, by significant factor.
For the 30Yr T-bond below, issued in February 2020, its yield plot (Red Plot) is in a rising pendant. Indicating the current yield for this bond is thinking very hard that it should be yielding something over 5.25%, on its way to even higher yields, in the not-too-distant future. That is bad, as seen below; rising yields (Red Plot) = lower prices (Blue Plot).
The 30-year commitment this bond offers its owners, though in 2026 it is now a 24-year commitment, has so far reduced their owners’ investment from the August 2020 top (120.3) to this week’s closing price of 58.17, a reduction of 52% in the past six years, as bond yields increased.
So far, rising bond yields hasn’t impacted the bull market for the Dow Jones, my proxy for the broad-stock market. But one day they will, as rising bond yields in the 1960s & 1970s did.
Looking at the table below, listing this week’s BEV values for the major stock indexes I follow, the strongest day was on Monday (June 15th), with six of these indexes closing at a new all-time high (0.00%). Thursday (this holiday shorted week’s last trading day), saw one new all-time high, and the next thirteen indexes closed in scoring position. Indicating this advance in the stock market remains intact.
The precious metal assets in the top three rows above have yet to breakout from their current corrections. Looking at their BEV values, they are down by 25%, or 45% from their last all-time highs of last winter. Still, they are up by triple digit percentages since November 2021. Looking at gold and silver’s advance below, data indexed to 1.00 = 02 January 1969, they both went vertical in the past year. With the gains seen below, I’m not surprised seeing them now correcting that advance.
This correction won’t last forever. If you liked gold and silver last winter, as they closed at one new all-time high, after another, now in June with them trading at a 25% or 45% discount, you should now love them even more. But that isn’t the way human psychology works in the market. The truth is; people like buying at market tops, to then sell at market bottoms. Oh, they say they don’t. But that is what they do!
So, over the long term, most people don’t make money in the market, for this exact reason.
I can’t say this as a fact; the bottom is in for gold and silver. As these precious metals correction my still have more to go, in terms of time and valuations. But I think their bottoms were put in last week, and it is only a matter of time before they go on to new all-time highs. Patience is a virtue in the markets.
Gold’s daily volatility’s 200D M/A is up significantly, chart below. If I saw the Dow Jones daily volatility’s 200D M/A up, as gold’s is below, I’d know the Dow Jones, and the broad stock market were in a significant market decline. But gold, silver too, is different. Gold’s daily volatility always rises whenever something big is happening in the market, be that something bullish or bearish.
Look at the indexed chart of the valuation of gold and silver above. Since February 2024, when daily volatility for gold began rising below, how would you describe gold and silver’s price trends; bullish or bearish? I’d say gold is in a bull market, and its rising daily volatility is a positive confirmation of that fact.
Let’s go a little deeper into daily volatility for gold, going back to January 1969. In the chart below, every trading day where gold moved more than 2.99%, call it a +/- 3% move from a previous day’s close, is plotted below. Keeping it simple, these days of extreme volatility, are what I call; extreme days of volatility. Which in gold’s case, are gold’s 3% days.
The daily volatility seen during the 1970s bull market is obvious, as is the daily volatility of the very bearish early 1980s.
Gold’s days of extreme volatility became less frequent following 1984, a good indication that being a bull on gold wasn’t going to be a rewarding occupation. But note; since our current bull market in gold began in February 2001, gold’s 3% days have notably declined, when compared to their volume during gold’s 1970s bull market.
That is an important fact that demands an explanation. It seems to me, that since February 2001, gold has been rising, in spite of the considerable selling of future contracts at the COMEX, intending to prevent that from happening. In other words, the gold market is being manipulated in favor of the bears during a bull market in gold, resulting in lower daily volatility.
But this is changing.
Above are the totals of gold’s 3% days, on a per-annum basis. The annual totals for the bullish 1970s are seen above, as is 1980’s huge spike in extreme daily volatility. A very bearish year for gold, silver and precious metal mining.
I’ll let my readers study this chart on their own, but note 2026 (Red Circle), a year that by June, has already seen 20 gold 3% days. Granted, most of them have been negative 3% days, as was the case for 2008. But the years following 2008 were good years for gold and silver, and I expect that will prove true for 2026 too.
For my readers information, I’m including the same data on the silver market below. But note; I’ve assigned a 5% threshold for silver’s days of extreme volatility, as silver is a more volatile market than is gold, or the Dow Jones.
Look at the downward spike in silver prices for January 30th, Red Circle. A one-day decline of 27.5% in the price of silver. Gold was down 10% that day too. Nothing like that has happened since 30 March 1980, forty-six years ago when silver saw a daily decline of 31.65%.
For silver, so far 2026 is its most volatile year since 1980, and it’s only June! What is with that? I can’t say for certain, but I think this is a very bullish indication of what is to come for silver, in the years to follow.
Now on to gold’s BEV chart. Since gold’s last BEV Zero of January 28th, the 100th new all-time high since entering scoring position in November 2023, gold has developed a nasty technical pattern of; lower highs and lower lows these past five months.
To break this bearish pattern, gold must now develop a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. A close above its BEV -15% line would be a nice start, but will it? I think so, as I believe gold’s one day closing below its BEV -25% line (June 10th) will prove to be the low in this correction. The weeks to come will prove me right or wrong on this assumption.
In gold’s step sum table below, its 15-count has turned positive, but so far for only this week. A positive 15-count indicates the gold market is seeing more daily advances, than daily declines. But then, gold’s last two trading days this week were down days. If next week is more of the same, once again gold’s 15-count will go negative.
But this correction has gone on now for five months, so it is getting stale. For no particular reason, other than I believe gold is still in a bull market, I’m expecting the next five months will prove to be more bullish, than the last five months.
For the Dow Jones, since May 15th its 15-count has been positive; more daily advances than daily declines. And for three times, the Dow Jones 15-count has pushed itself up into overbought territory, with a 15-count of +7.
In the table below, seeing the Dow Jones with a 15-count of +7 is a fairly rare market event, with only 5.50% of all daily closes since December 1970, closing with a 15-count of +7. About one out of every twenty days for the past fifty-six years.
Rarely does the 15-count go higher, to a +9 and beyond, as markets don’t like being overbought. But in the past month, three times the Dow Jones’ 15-count bumped up to a +7. And look at all those blue BEV Zeros in the step sum table above.
Well, if a market refuses to go down, and feels comfortable with a 15-count of +7 as the Dow Jones is currently is, it must want to go higher. And that is how it will be, until something changes that will bring the Dow Jones down. However, with the Dow Jones daily volatility’s 200D M/A closing the week at a 0.63%, very low daily volatility, the path of least resistance continues to be up, to new all-time highs for the foreseeable future. And so it will be, until the Dow Jones once again sees its dreaded days of extreme volatility; Dow Jones 2% days.
But this stock market will go up without me, as I still don’t like it. Better to buy gold and silver bullion, and their miners, currently selling at significant discounts from their all-time highs of last winter.
Mark J. Lundeen
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