Gold $4900 & $4100: Buy Zones For Champions?
There are occasional rallies of significance for all global fiat monies against supreme money gold. They all end with a fresh collapse to new lows for the fiats.
Government obsession with outrageous spending (and with even more outrageous debt) is what makes these tumbles inevitable.
For a look at some of the rallies and ensuing collapses over the past 50+years:
It’s unknown whether US fiat continues its relatively feeble rally against gold for several years or just melts into the abyss “about now”.
All that’s really known is that another meltdown lies ahead and thus savvy investors are using the fiat rally… to get more gold.
This is the daily gold versus US fiat chart. Here, I identify the two nearest zones to get more gold.
The $4900 area is the nearest one that is above the current price. The second is $4100, and it’s the nearest one that is below the current price.
The price zones to get more gold are all created by previous highs or lows of significance, but investors need to wait for a price sale (also of significance) into one of these zones before they buy…
Or they are just gambling.
What about the overvalued US stock market?
This is a disturbing SP500 Shiller/CAPE inflation-adjusted PE ratio chart. The overvaluation is always at an all-time high.
Having said that, the market can continue higher (much like fiat against gold) before it falls into the abyss.
The inverse H&S bull continuation pattern for the Dow suggests the Dow is due for a classic pullback after the breakout.
From there, a surge to the target zone of 55,000 is likely, and then as US stock market “crash season” (August 1-October 31) gets underway, the overvaluation is likely to finally begin to weigh on the market, and a major bear market should begin.
The new boss of the Fed (aka Fort Fiat) is Kevin Warsh. He’s stated that the US stock market is significantly overvalued, and appears ready to use QT (quantitative tightening) to fix the problem.
Importantly, he spoke about this overvaluation long before the market became as overvalued as it is today. At the same time, he’s open to rate cuts. That mix of rate cuts and QT is likely neutral for gold.
A good case can be made that gold is ready to surge above $4900… and an equally good one can be made that’s it’s ready to dip to $4100. If supreme money “bugs” are fully prepped to buy both on a price sale into those zones, whatever transpires should be managed by the investors… with relative ease.
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What about silver? Well, one key chart is starting to favour the bulls.
This is the weekly chart of silver versus US fiat. An exciting inverse H&S pattern is coming into focus and…
The price target is the previous high near $120!
Regardless, the investor buys for silver (and the miners) should still be made at the key zones for gold (currently $4900 and $4100).
For a look at the miners:
This is the weekly GDXJ chart. Stochastics (14,5,5 series) is washed out and offers value… from an oscillator standpoint.
RSI has yet to reach the value zone and MACD (20,40,10 series) is still negative.
In a nutshell, gold is not near $4900 or $4100 so there’s no buy signal yet, but it’s coming... just as surely as day follows night.
For a look at GDX:
GDX is at support defined by a previous low and a trendline. Stochastics is as washed out as it is for GDXJ, but RSI and MACD aren’t looking perky.
This week’s “fakeflation” reports (CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday) could bring more clarity for gold stock investors, but none is needed… so long as their focus is on the key zones of $4900 and $4100 for gold!
Thanks!
Cheers
St
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