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Gold Forecast: Gold Cycle & U.S. Stocks Update

Chief Analyst & Editor @ Goldwavetrader

May 17, 2026

gold and stock update With the recent action in the Gold market, we will take a look at the current cyclical position in the metal, as well as a quick look at the U.S. stock market.

Gold's 10-Day Cycle

For the very near-term, the downward phase of our smallest-tracked cycle - the 10-day wave - is currently deemed to be in force.

Shown below is that 10-day cycle in Gold:

In terms of time, we are 9 trading days along on this 10-day cycle, which will put it into bottoming range into early this week. Once this wave troughs, a quick rally back to the 10-day moving average for Gold would be a normal minimum expectation. From there, another trough with this 10-day wave would be due around late-May to very early-June.

Gold's 34-Day Cycle

Above the 10-day component, there is the 34-day cycle in Gold, shown again on the chart below:

As mentioned in a prior article, the upward phase of our 34-day cycle (chart, above) was recently deemed to be in force. Having said that, as noted in our Gold Wave Trader report, there had yet to be any follow-through higher with this wave. That lack of strength was seen as a technical warning sign for the metal.

With the above said and noted, any push below the 4510.10 swing low (June, 2026 contract) - if seen at any point going forward - would infer this 34-day cycle to have turned back to the downside.

Going further, a turn back to the downside in our 34-day wave, if seen, would point to additional weakness into June, which is not out of line with the seasonal pattern for Gold, which is shown on the chart below:

Stepping back, the overall action has seen Gold in a much larger sideways-to-down correction, consolidating the action off the 'blow-off' top, seen back in late-January. This sideway action could continue into mid-to-late July, which is the next projected bottom for our larger 72-day cycle, shown below:

Stepping back further, a correction low with the 72-day cycle into July, if seen, would be favored to give way to a sharp rally intro the September - October window, one which is in the range of 14-20% off of whatever trough that forms with this wave. From there, another 72-day trough would be due around early-November, before turning sharply (25%+) higher into February of next year.

U.S. Stocks (Quick) Update

As far back as last year, our overall assessment for U.S. stocks is that the SPX was headed higher (overall) into the Spring of this year, with the potential to reach up to the 7300- 7500 SPX CASH region.

With the action seen in past months, the SPX dropped down to a late-March trough, which also ended up as our last 180-day cycle bottom.

Here is that 180-day cycle in U.S. stocks:

In terms of time, the assumption is that the upward phase of this 180-day cycle will remain intact into the late-July to mid-August window. With price, the more recent action has suggested the potential for a spike up to the next round figure of 8000 on the SPX. Going further, the next bigger swing top should come from this 180-day wave.

With that, the ideal path is looking for a 180-day top to form into the late-July to mid- August window. From there, there is the above-average potential for a sharp decline to play out into the late-September to mid-October timeframe, where another 180-day low would be due.

Having said the above, there are always cycles inside of cycles. With that, there were key technical divergences at the most recent swing high on the SPX, which warn of a sharp correction - which is expected to come from the next cycle, the 45-day wave:

In terms of time, the most recent upward phase of our 45-day wave on the SPX was projected higher into the May 7-15 window. Its next trough - if made on schedule - is projected for the late-May to early-June timeframe, a move which - though sharp - is anticipated to end up as countertrend, due to the aforementioned position of the larger 180-day component.

For the mid-term then, a countertrend correction with the 45-day wave in the days/weeks ahead - if seen as outlined - would be expected to give way to higher highs into the late-July to mid-August window. On or around that timeframe, the next larger swing top should form, coming from the bigger 180-day component - before turning sharply lower into early-Autumn. More on this as we continue to move forward.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

Market Turns Advisory
http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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Jim Curry became involved in the markets as an investor in 1988. In the early 1990's he stumbled upon a book/methodology that would change the way he looked at the markets forever. That book was J.M. Hurst's the Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Hurst's concepts seemed to make perfect sense to Jim, and he has spent the years since coming up with his own cycle/technical analysis methodology.

In 1998 Jim put his cyclic methods to the test by entering the Etrade national options-trading competition, twice (his only two entries ever into the competition). In the first contest he finished in the top 10 out of over 150,000 entrants; in the second entry into the same contest, he just narrowly missed finishing in first place - over quadrupling a $100,000 account in the contest's short time span.

What you are seeing when you view my market reports is a collection of over 30-years of experience in both numeric analysis and spectral methods - and in actually trading the methodology for myself and for the subscribers of my Gold Wave Trader (which covers Gold) and Market Turns (covering U.S. stocks) reports.

You can visit his websites at: http://goldwavetrader.com/ and http://cyclewave.homestead.com/