Gold Forecast: Gold Cycles Setting Up for the Next Leg Higher

As mentioned in my prior articles, Gold was at 'risk' to a sharp correction, which was expected to come from our 34-day time cycle - with the market moving into extended range back in August. We have seen that correction playing out, with the metal dropping over 450 points from that peak, into the most recent swing low.

With the above said and noted, we can take a look at the cyclical position of Gold, to get an idea of what to expect going forward.

Gold's 34-Day Cycle

As mentioned back in mid-August of this year, a sharp correction was coming due for Gold, expected to come from our 34-day time cycle, shown again below:

In terms of price, I mentioned that the 34-day moving average was a magnet to a decline phase with this 34-day cycle in Gold, due to the fact that any cycle has a strong tendency (i.e., 85-90% odds) to revert back to a moving average of the same length. Thus, when we were well extended above this moving average back in late-August, we knew the downside risk was fairly high, at least into mid-September.  

Going further with the above, Gold later took out our downside 'reversal point' for this 34-day wave, thus confirming its correction phase to be back in force. In terms of price, the metal has dropped over 450 points from the late-August peak, into the most recent low, made in mid-September. That decline easily made it back to the 34-day moving average, the favored/minimum price magnet.

In terms of time, larger 34-day component was projecting its low for the mid-September timeframe, plus or minus. With that, the next good rally phase should come from this same 34-day cycle, which may well have already bottomed, though this has yet to actually be confirmed. This would require a move back above an exact 'reversal point' figure that we are currently watching, in our Gold Wave Trader report.

Gold's 72-Day Cycle

Stepping back, the last low for the larger 72-day cycle is seen as having formed back in late-June of this year.

Here again is that 72-day wave in Gold:

With the recent action, the downward phase of the smaller 34-day cycle has been able to produce enough weakness, to also trigger the correction phase of this 72-day component to be in force. In other words, where the upward phase of this 72-day wave was viewed as in force, it now looks to be pointing slightly lower.

In terms of time, the next trough for this 72-day cycle is projected for the mid-to-late October window. With that, if we were to get a sharp short-term rally with the smaller 34-day component (which is coming due), we would expect that rally to hold around the upper 72-day cycle channel - and/or the upper 72-day band indicator - to be followed by a turn south again into mid-to-late October, before bottoming this 72-day wave.

The above analysis is key in the coming weeks, as, from whatever bottom that forms with our 72-day wave, the probabilities will favor a sharp rally of some 14-15% or more playing out on its following upward phase. In other words, following an October bottom, a sharp rally of 14-15% or more would be expected, ideally lasting first into late-2026, but - more ideally - holding up into early next year. On or after that point, the next peak for the larger 154-day cycle would be expected.

The 154-day Cycle in Gold

As mentioned in my 6/21/26 article (i.e., Gold's 'Secret' Cycle), the 154-day wave had come back into dominance, and was on the lookout for a key low.

Here is that 154-day cycle in Gold:

From that 6/21/26 article: "in terms of time, this 154-day cycle should bottom with the smaller 72-day cycle in the coming weeks, before turning sharply higher in the months to follow. In terms of price, the average upward phases with this 154-day wave have been 20-25% or more, which tells us that a very sharp rally is brewing."

As mentioned back in June, Gold was in key bottoming range with the 72 and 154-day cycles, which was expected to give way to a sharp rally of some 20-25% or more. That rally was seen with the action that followed, with the metal moving higher by over 20%, into the late-August peak.

With the above said and noted, even though our 72-day wave is seen as pointing gently to the downside, the upward phase of this bigger 154-day cycle is still viewed as in force - ideally holding up into the late-2026 to early-2027 window.

Going further with the above, the next correction phase of the smaller 72-day cycle should be expected to end up as countertrend, due to the (bullish) configuration of the larger 154-day component.  

In terms of price with the above, from whatever bottom that forms with the smaller 72-day wave, the probabilities will favor a sharp rally of some 14-15% or more playing out on its next upward phase. In terms of time, as mentioned earlier, that rally would be favored to hold up into the late-2026 to early-2027 window, then to top the bigger 154-day component.

In terms of time, the next trough for this 154-day cycle is due sometime next Spring, though it is too early to make an exact time projection; that is, the detrend that tracks this indicator does not become accurate until the latter stages of the cycle.

Having said the above, the next correction phase with this 154-day wave is expected to be a larger countertrend affair, to be followed by a sharp rally of some 20-25% or more, playing out into what looks to be later next Summer. More on this as we continue to move forward.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

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