Gold Forecast: Key Signal Forms for Gold

Since my prior article, Gold dropped to lower lows for the swing into late-June, before forming a key low at the 3955.40 figure (August, 2026 contract). This trough was right into the expected window of mid-June to mid-July, noted as an ideal bottoming range for the combination of 34, 72 and 154-day time cycles.

Gold's Near-Term View

For the very short-term, one of the key cycles that we track is the 34-day wave in Gold, which is shown on the chart below:

From my 6/11/26 article: "it was the 5/18/26 reversal below the 4510.10 figure (June contract) which confirmed a turn south in our 34-day cycle. In terms of time, this 34-day wave was projected lower into the mid-June timeframe or later, where it should bottom our larger 72-day component."

As mentioned above, the 5/18/26 reversal below the 4510.10 figure (June contract) was the trigger for the last correction phase of this 34-day cycle in Gold, which saw over 500 points of additional weakness through the same - eventually giving way to a late-June trough.

With the above said and noted, the upward phase of our 34-day cycle is now deemed to be back in force. If correct, the upward phase of this wave would be expected to push higher into later this month, with the 34-day moving average acting as an ideal and eventual price magnet.

The 72 and 154-day Cycles in Gold

As mentioned in my prior articles, a correction low with the bigger 72 and 154-day cycles was due to form anywhere into the mid-June to mid-July window.

Shown below is the 72-day cycle in Gold:

As noted in my last article, the detrend tracking our 72-day cycle had been projecting this wave to push down into early-July, plus or minus, which was in the window for the smaller 34-day trough to form. With that, there is the potential that the bottom for the larger 72 cycle is in place, though that is early speculation for now.

If a 72-day cycle low is in place (still speculation, until confirmed), then a sharp rally would be expected to play out into September, plus or minus. Stepping back, there should be another 72-day trough that forms into the early-Autumn timeframe. From there, a stronger rally would be expected to play out into February of 2027, or later.

Key Technical Considerations

One key technical signal that we were watching was our Gold Timing Index, a combined sentiment/momentum measure, which is shown on the chart below:

At mid-term peaks and troughs, our Gold Timing Index will normally diverge from price. That action was last week back in January of this year - and which was pointed out to be a 'blow-off' top for Gold.

What has followed has been a significant correction of some 30% for Gold.  

From my 6/21/26 article: "the most recent lower low with price has been followed by a lower low in our Gold Timing Index, which is a negative signal. What we are currently watching for is for a divergence between the indicator and price, which - if seen at any point going forward - would be the strongest signal that a mid-term bottom is forming for the yellow metal."

Since my prior article back in June, a key signal has been seen, which is a divergence between the last lower low between our Gold Timing Index and price. That is, in late-June, a lower price low was seen - but was not accompanied by a lower low in this indicator.

With the above said and noted, the divergence seen back in late-June is viewed as a bullish signal for Gold, for the mid-term view. Going further, this action supports the idea of either a key low already in place for Gold - or else one that is in the process of forming - and thus is fairly close.

On the flip side, the fact that our Gold Timing Cycle indicator (in red, and which is more of a short-term signal) recently moved above its own upper reference line has limited the amount of near-term strength. Even said, I see the divergence from our Gold Timing Index as being more key for the bigger view.

U.S. Stocks (Update)

As mentioned in past articles, the last key low for the SPX (i.e., S&P 500 index) was made back in late-March, which ended up as our last 180-day cycle bottom.

Here again is that 180-day cycle in U.S. stocks:

In terms of time, the assumption was that the upward phase of this 180-day cycle would hold up into the late-July to mid-August window. In terms of price, I noted the potential for a spike up to the round-8000 figure before topping this wave, though there is no guarantee we will get that high - with only 3-5 weeks to go before this cycle tops out.

With the above said and noted, the next larger peak should come from this 180-day cycle in U.S. stocks - ideally made into the late-July to mid-August window.

Stepping back, from whatever top that is seen with our 180-day cycle, what follows is expected to be a sharp decline playing out into the late-September to mid-October timeframe, where the next 180-day trough is projected to form.

In terms of price with the above, a mid-August peak with our 180-day cycle would have the potential for a drop back the 200-day moving average on the SPX.

For the mid-term picture, on or around early-Autumn of this year, a key bottom should form, coming from this 180-day time cycle - as well as a larger-tracked 360-day wave in U.S. stocks. This low should also end up as a seasonal cycle bottom, and what follows should be a very sharp (i.e., 15-20%) rally into year-end.

The Bottom Line

The overall bottom line with the above is that Gold has either formed a key mid-term low - or is very close to doing so - to be followed by a sharp rally into late-Summer. As for the U.S. stock market, a key peak is expected to form into the late-July to mid-August window, before giving way to a sharp (8-10%) correction into late-September to mid-October, before turning sharply higher into year-end. Stay tuned.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

Market Turns Advisory
http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

*******