Gold Forecast: Monitoring Gold's 'Secret' Cycle

The recent action in Gold has seen the metal continuing to break south, though is moving into the range where a mid-term trough is expected to form. Once this low is in place, a very sharp rally is expected to develop in the months to follow.

Gold Market, Short-Term

For the very short-term, the cycle that is dominating is the 34-day wave in Gold, which is shown on the chart below:

From my 5/17/26 article: "any push below the 4510.10 swing low (June, 2026 contract) - if seen at any point going forward - would infer this 34-day cycle to have turned back to the downside. Going further, a turn back to the downside in our 34-day wave, if seen, would point to additional weakness into June, which is not out of line with the seasonal pattern for Gold."

As mentioned above, it was the 5/18/26 reversal below the 4510.10 figure (at the time, June contract) which confirmed a turn south in our 34-day cycle. With that, Gold has seen another 470 points of additional weakness through the same, here dropping all the way down to a 6/11/26 trough. The action around our price 'reversal points' shows just how key these numbers are for the metal.

In terms of time, this 34-day wave was projected lower into the mid-June timeframe or later, where it should bottom our larger 72-day component. This 34-day wave is now 34 trading days along, which puts it into normal bottoming range.

Having said the above, there are two larger cycles above the 34-day wave, which are also pushing down. Those two cycles are the 72-day wave, and then the bigger 154-day cycle. Shown below is the 72-day component:

Normally, when we see several larger-degree cycles pushing down, it tends to favor the smallest cycle (here, the 34-day wave) to bottom into the back-end of its range.

Going further with the above, the detrend that tracks our 72-day cycle is projecting this particular wave to continue to push down into early-July. With that, until proven otherwise, the assumption is that Gold has lower lows to come, before forming what is expected to be the next mid-term trough.

Gold's 'Secret' Cycle

The 'secret' cycle for the Gold market is the 154-day wave, which - after a period of falling out of favor  - has recently come back into dominance.

Here is that 154-day cycle in Gold:

In terms of time, this 154-day cycle should bottom with the smaller 72-day cycle in the coming weeks, before turning sharply higher in the months to follow. In terms of price, the average upward phases with this 154-day wave have been 20-25% or more, which tells us that a very sharp rally is brewing.

Having said the above, until proven otherwise, the overall assumption is that our next trough with the 72 and 154-day cycles will come from lower lows than already seen, with a key focus on the early-to-mid July window for this bottom to form.

Technical Considerations

One key technical signal that we are watching for Gold is our Gold Timing Index, a combined sentiment/momentum measure, which is shown on the chart below:

Back in late-January, our article was titled 'Terminal Point to Current Rally Drawing Near'. At that time, we mentioned that Gold was in a short-term 'blow-off' condition, which was supported by the action from our Gold Timing Index.

At mid-term peaks and troughs, our Gold Timing Index will normally diverge from price action. This was the position of this indicator at the January peak, and what has followed has been a significant correction for the metal.

With the above said and noted, the most recent lower low with price has been followed by a lower low in our Gold Timing Index, which is a negative signal. What we are currently watching for is for a divergence between the indicator and price, which - if seen at any point going forward - would be the strongest signal that a mid-term bottom is forming for the yellow metal.

Until that divergence is seen, we do have a key upside 'reversal point' figure in regards to price for the mid-term cycles - a number which is always posted (and continually updated) in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader market report. Stay tuned.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

Market Turns Advisory
http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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