Gold Market Sentiment: Why This Correction is Moving Towards the End
Precious metals remain in an intermediate correction, but several real-money sentiment indicators suggest the market is working its way into the later innings of this pullback. While technical charts still point to potential downside, sentiment data indicates any lower lows would likely be unsustainable.
Institutional Positioning Shows Limited Enthusiasm
The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey reveals that a net 16% of managers currently consider gold overvalued . This marks the lowest reading in the past 10 months and the second-lowest in 15 months, indicating professional investors have turned increasingly skeptical during this correction.
More striking is the data from family offices: according to the JPMorgan 2026 Global Family Office Report covering 333 single family offices from 30 countries with average net worth of $1.6 billion, 72% own no gold whatsoever. Among the 28% who do hold gold, the average allocation stands at just 0.9%.
ETF Holdings Reveal Stark Underinvestment
Despite gold trading roughly 100% higher than its 2020 peak, gold ETF holdings (as of March) are only slightly above their 2020 levels and may be even lower today. This disconnect between price appreciation and investor positioning highlights the absence of speculative excess that typically marks significant market tops.
Gold ETFs currently comprise less than 2% of total ETF assets. This allocation sits below the 2019 peak and far below the 2011 peak when gold ETFs represented over 8% of total ETF assets. The data suggests that while gold has declined against the traditional 60/40 portfolio and equities, investor allocation has not followed price performance.
Gold Mining Stocks Show Even Greater Underallocation
Gold miner ETFs tell an even more extreme story. Miner ETFs now comprise approximately 0.37% of ETF capital, down from roughly 0.52% a few months ago. This represents levels below both the 2020 and 2016 peaks.
The Bull Market Backdrop
The sentiment picture strongly supports the thesis that gold and gold stocks remain in the early innings of a secular bull market, with the current cyclical bull that began about 2.5 years ago not yet halfway complete. A substantial portion of capital remains parked in conventional equities, creating potential fuel for future precious metals rallies .
Historically, cyclical peaks in gold are preceded by a flush of capital out of stocks and into precious metals—a dynamic clearly absent from current positioning data. While this correction has successfully reset sentiment and technical indicators may suggest additional near-term downside, the fundamental lack of speculative positioning argues against a sustained breakdown from here.
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Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT is a Chartered Market Technician and member of the Market Technicians Association. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection, as well as TheDailyGold Global, an add-on service for subscribers which covers global capital markets. He is also the author of the 2015 book, The Coming Renewal of Gold’s Secular Bull Market which is available for free. TheDailyGold.com was recently named one of the top 50 Investment Blogs by DailyReckoning and WalletHub.
