Gold Price Forecast: Expect One More Shakeout Before Bottoming in June
Precious metals are approaching our mid-year target zones, and we expect a bottom to form within the next few weeks.
If gold continues to track the 2006 analog, the current uptrend should resume in July, potentially paving the way for a multi-year rally that could carry prices toward $14,000 by 2031.
In the near term, price action is likely to be influenced by upcoming CPI data, followed by the possibility of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve's June 17 policy decision.
The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 71.
US DOLLAR: The U.S. dollar surged following Friday’s employment report and is now approaching the 100.50 breakout level of a rounded-bottom formation. Sustained closes above this key resistance level would support a move toward the 103 - 104 area. Such a rally in the dollar would likely create downside pressure on precious metals.
GOLD: Gold closed below its 200-day moving average, erasing all of its gains for 2026. The Gold Cycle Indicator has fallen to 71, its lowest reading since September 2023. We are now at a point in the cycle where prices could drop a bit further, but that outcome is not guaranteed.
From a longer-term perspective, I believe this move below the 200-day moving average will ultimately be viewed as an attractive entry opportunity. In 2006, gold traded below its 200-day moving average for just over a month before resuming its uptrend and rallying more than 220% over the following five years. If a similar advance were to occur from current levels, gold could approach $14,000 by 2031.
SILVER: Silver fell more than 8% on Friday, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown and a final move lower into our mid-year target zone. While additional near-term weakness remains possible, the longer-term outlook continues to be constructive.
In 2006, silver successfully held its 200-day moving average before resuming its uptrend and rallying more than 350% over the following several years. If a similar advance were to unfold from current levels, it would support a target near $300.
PLATINUM: Platinum finished below its 200-day moving average, and prices could close the gap near $1,600 before establishing a low.
GDX: Mining stocks are down 8% year-to-date following their record 154% gain in 2025. From a technical perspective, I see two unfilled price gaps that could act as downside targets near $77.50 and $72.00.
Going forward, I will be closely monitoring price action for signs of a bottoming process and evidence that the correction is nearing completion.
GDXJ: Junior miners are down 11% year-to-date following their impressive 172% gain in 2025. From a technical standpoint, the open price gaps near $97.50 and $91.00 represent potential downside targets.
If aggressive selling pressure continues early next week, I may expand the target zone to include major support near $85.00. As always, I'll be watching closely for signs of stabilization and a potential bottoming process.
SILJ: Silver juniors are down just under 5% year-to-date following a record 183% gain in 2025. The open price gaps near $24.00 and $22.75 represent potential downside targets as the correction continues to unfold.
If heavy selling pressure persists early next week, I may need to lower the target zone to include major support near $20.00. In the meantime, I'll be watching closely for signs that the decline is nearing exhaustion, and a bottom may be forming.
S&P 500: After nine consecutive weeks of gains, stocks are finally undergoing a well-deserved correction. Initial support comes in near the 7,260 price gap and the 50-day EMA.
A sustained break below the 50-day EMA would increase the likelihood of a deeper pullback, opening the door for a retest of support near 7,000 as we move into mid-year.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin breached its February low and is attempting to stage a rebound. However, prices need to reclaim the $65,000 level quickly to reduce the risk of a continued decline toward the $50,000 area.
The June breakdown reinforces our expectation for an eventual test of $40,000, with a final cycle low potentially forming in the October timeframe.
Final Thoughts
Expect increased volatility surrounding this week's CPI data release and next week's central bank announcements.
A closer analysis reveals an ideal target zone for gold between $4,200 and $4,275. If reached, this zone could mark a significant bottom by month-end. Ideally, silver would bottom in the mid-$60s.
If the U.S. dollar breaks decisively above 101, it would support an upside breakout toward 104. Such a move could trigger a deeper correction in gold, with a worst-case scenario targeting the $3,500 area.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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