Gold Price Forecast: Gold Miners Look Bullish Despite Spiking Bond Yields
Treasury yields are soaring, and markets could break if they keep rising at this pace.
Gold bottomed mid-year and is experiencing its first meaningful pullback. Spot prices need to close above $4,400 to signal an end to this correction.
Gold miners also bottomed out mid-year, and their charts are impressive, with many rallying more than 50% in just over a month. The current pullback may be forming a bull flag, potentially supporting a 25%+ rally into November if a breakout is confirmed.
MOUNTING BOND MARKET STRESS
The MOVE Index measures bond market stress. As of Thursday, it surged to 104 and is threatening to break out of a three-year downtrend, suggesting significant market risk ahead.
10-YEAR YIELD
The 10-year yield sliced through 5.00% and the 2023 high. If it continues rising at this pace, something is likely to break in financial markets.
GOLD BIG PICTURE: A little more downside is possible, but overall, I believe we are at the halfway point of a 10-year bull run that will take gold above $10,000 by the end of the decade. In hindsight, the current pullback will likely be barely noticeable.
GOLD: Spot gold must close above $4,400 in the coming days or weeks to confirm an end to the current pullback. A break below $4,200 would risk triggering another round of selling into October.
SILVER: Silver needs to close above $67.50 to confirm an interim low. Progressive closes below $62.00 would open the door to further downside in October.
PLATINUM: Platinum needs consecutive closes above the cycle downtrend line near $1,900 to confirm a bottom. Slipping below $1,700 would signal a secondary breakdown and renewed weakness into October.
GDX: Miners bottomed mid-year as forecast and rallied more than 50% in just over a month. The current pullback appears to be forming a bull flag, supporting a medium-term target of $135 - $140 upon a confirmed breakout.
GDXJ: Gold juniors may also be forming a bull flag, which projects a surge toward $175 upon a confirmed breakout in October.
SILJ: Silver juniors must break decisively above $31.00 to confirm a bull flag, targeting $40.00+ potentially in November.
BITCOIN WEEKLY: Bitcoin surged in recent months, exceeding the May highs. The historic four-year cycle did not project a final bottom until October or November. For that pattern to be fulfilled, the current action would need to develop into a broadening bottom formation, with a lower low in Q4. A weekly close below $75,000 in October would bolster this potential.
Final Thoughts
Next week’s price action—particularly Wednesday’s PCE inflation and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report—will be critical for gold’s near-term outlook.
A continued spike in Treasury yields could create a headwind for precious metals and miners. However, we would view any such weakness as temporary within the broader uptrend.
Gold miners remain a key area of focus. I believe they could be the next market leaders, and I’ll be watching their price action closely for clues about the broader trend.
For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
*******
