Gold Price Forecast: Metals and Miners Heading Toward Projected Mid-Year Lows
Wednesday’s Producer Price Index came in at 1.4% versus the 0.5% estimate, supporting the case for more inflation ahead.
The dollar is bouncing, and I see the potential for a rounded bottom that could lead to a bit more upside, potentially creating a headwind for precious metals.
Metals and miners are taking a breather after a strong start to May. Continued downside follow-through next week, combined with rising Treasury yields, would suggest the bounce is over and prices are likely heading toward our projected mid-year lows.
Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 148. The next buying opportunity is likely to emerge once we enter the minimum cycle bottoming phase.
US DOLLAR: The dollar is rallying, and I see the potential for a one-year rounded bottom formation. Major resistance remains near the 100.50 level, which could prove challenging to overcome. A pullback in metals and miners into a mid-year low likely requires medium-term dollar strength.
GOLD: Gold remains stuck near its 50-day EMA. A bit more upside is possible, but overall, I expect prices to roll over between now and month-end. If prices break down from current levels, I’ll likely need to lower the target box. Note: gold did not confirm the recent highs in silver.
SILVER: Silver formed a bearish engulfing candle. Prices would have to slip decisively back below the 50-day EMA to support an end to this rebound. Otherwise, this could be short-term profit-taking.
PLATINUM: Platinum needs a series of closes back below the 50-day EMA to signal an end to this rebound. If prices hold the 50-day, then expect a little more upside.
GDX: Miners pulled back to the 50-day EMA. This could be just a quick pullback before more upside. Progressive closes below $92.00 would support an end to this rebound.
GDXJ: Juniors formed a swing high, but I won't be convinced the rebound is over until we get a series of progressive closes below $120.
SILJ: Silver juniors formed a swing high, and it would take progressive closes below the 50-day EMA to support an end to the May rebound.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 continues to surge to new all-time highs, led by software companies. With consumer sentiment near all-time lows while stocks sit at record highs, the market remains detached from reality. It would likely take a resumption of the Iran war or a spike in Treasury yields to derail it.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin remains at a critical juncture, with RSI momentum testing support. Prices could exceed the 200-day moving average for a time, but it would take a sustained breakout above $90,000 to challenge the bear thesis. Historically, after testing the 200-day MA prices fall another 60% in bear cycles, which I believe we're in. My cycle work supports an October low and a test of $40,000 before bottoming.
Metals and miners are taking a much-needed breather after their historic runs in 2025. We believe this is simply a pause within a larger uptrend, similar to what occurred in 2006. From a big-picture perspective, we see gold surpassing $10,000 and silver trading above $300 within the next three to five years.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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