Gold Price Forecast: New Highs? Not Yet

Gold should have at least one more significant low to make over the coming months. While the recovery over recent weeks from $4,100 to $4,800 has been impressive, our model says that the intermediate-term decline is not over, as strong support does not exist until the upper $3,000’s for gold.

Investors should be looking for a higher-probability low to form mid/late summer. Investors should prepare for this scenario now, and stay alert for the key trigger level which would negate this outlook and suggest higher prices are coming much sooner.

We will discuss these key levels in this outlook.

Gold Short-Term

Over the short-term, gold has broken its primary rising trend which began last October. Note below the 7 hits (blue arrows) on the broken rising trend starting from the October low at $3,885. This trend has been violated as of late-March (red highlight), when Turkey was forced to liquidate 60 tonnes of its gold to defend its currency, the lira. Regardless of the reason, the rule in price analysis is that rising trends, once broken, should be expected to act as resistance going forward. Presently, gold’s broken rising trend comes in at $4,855. This level should be expected to see sellers now emerge, as they already have twice in the last two weeks (blue arrows).

Next, Gold has a new primary downward trend (dashed blue line), which began at the January peak of $5,600. Note that this valid downward trend will meet with the broken rising trend at $5,015 in mid-May. Gold should thus be expected to witness double the amount of selling pressure as it approaches $5,015 over the coming month.

In sum, our bias is that gold will fail to overcome both resistance levels, and will roll over in May, en route to lower prices by mid-summer.

Where Is Strong Support?

If gold should be expected to roll over by mid-summer, where does the stronger support exist for the precious metal, which our analysis suggests has a stronger probability of representing a major bottom?

The answer is: the upper-$3,000’s per ounce.

We will refer now to the chart below:

The upper $3,000’s represents the confluence of three separate support levels, which is why it will represent strong support in the future:

1. $3,885 (black) is the October 2025 swing low (black arrow), which saw buyers emerge the last time the market fell this low.
2. $3,835 (silver) is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance from the March 2024 breakout at $2,075 (red highlight) to the January 2026 all-time high of $5,600.
3. $3,725 and rising (blue) is the broken rising trend which began at the October 2023 bottom at $1,815, when Hamas launched its attack on Israel. This trend acted as resistance on six occasions (blue arrows), and was broken higher in April 2025 following the Trump tariff panic (red highlight). Again illustrating the principle of broken resistance turning to support, this trend then acted as support on three occasions in 2025 (blue arrows). It should thus be expected to act as support going forward at $3,725 and rising each week.

In sum, there are three separate technical support levels which will converge on the $3,800 - $3,900 region by the second half of this year. This zone will thus represent the first significant level of strong support for gold following the recent retracement from the all-time high.

New Highs Sooner? à Only If This Happens

As a price analyst, I always identify the level which would invalidate my analysis, and show me that gold is ready to make new highs sooner. In this case, multiple daily closes above the rising broken trend which currently comes in at $4,855 (blue, first chart), would tell me that something has fundamentally changed in the gold market, thus causing the market to recover broken support. In this instance, our outlook would switch to bullish much sooner, and new highs above $5,600 could be expected by Q3 of this year.

However, it is important to note that our bias must remain with the visible evidence: gold has witnessed a broken rising trend, which is now visibly acting as resistance. Gold also has a valid new downward trend, which will be exerting pressure on the market in the near future. The combination of both of these resistance levels should halt gold’s current recovery and cause it to roll over into new lows later this year.

If the market is going to disprove this base outlook, the market must do so by recovering key support on daily closes: in this case, $4,855 and rising. The onus is always on the market to prove to us that it can recover key support.

Barring such, our bias should stay with the visible evidence which shows that strong support exists in the $3,800 - $3,900 zone later this year.

Takeaway on Gold Prices

Gold has witnessed a broken rising short-term trend, which, combined with a newly-valid primary declining trend, should see rising prices halted, before new lows arrive later this year.

Fundamentally, it is possible that another round of forced liquidation is pending in the market, similar to what we saw last month when Turkey was forced to sell 60 tonnes of its gold to defend the lira from depreciation. Gold, as one of the best-performing asset classes of the last two years, is often the first asset that entities will liquidate when they quickly need to raise funds for other purposes. Gold may thus fall for no fault of its own, but simply because it has performed so well in recent years.

Strong support exists in the $3,800 - $3,900 range for gold, and unless the market proves to us otherwise, investors should prepare for lower prices later this year.

At www.iGoldAdvisor.com, our premium subscribers to Precious Metals Intelligence+ will be the first to learn if gold can negate its lower price expectation. In addition, our subscribers are benefitting from an investment in a gold mining company which is up over 200% in the last three months, even as gold itself is lower. Even if gold continues to decline, we expect this miner to continue outperforming.

Finally, we work with individual investors across the precious metals spectrum to offer guidance (i.e. “What would we do if we were in your situation?”) on metals portfolios or mining companies. We take no fees or kickbacks from any bullion dealerships nor mining companies – we are 100% independent and focused on assisting individual investors to navigate these markets.

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