Gold SWOT: Could Gold Be Set for a Major Breakout?

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for the past week was silver, up 2.07%. Both gold and silver gained this past week following a series of economic data pointing to easing inflation, steady initial jobless claims, weaker-than-expected PPI, and a surprising 0.6% decline in retail sales last Friday, compared with expectations for a 0.1% increase. The data could give the Fed another reason to hold off on raising interest rates at its Sept. 16 meeting.
• China purchased 640,000 ounces of gold in July, reports Canaccord, up from 480,000 ounces in June and the highest monthly amount since October 2023. The PBOC has purchased 1.93 million ounces over the past seven months, more than double its purchases for all of 2025. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea made its first gold-linked investment in 13 years, holding approximately $250 million in SPDR Gold Shares at the end of Q2, highlighting growing demand for gold exposure among global reserve managers.
• According to BMO, gold ETF inflows reached $3.3 billion, the strongest level since April, with broad-based buying led by Europe ($1.1 billion), North America ($1.08 billion) and China ($810 million). Inflows have continued, with gold ETFs recording a seventh consecutive day of net buying on Thursday, the longest streak since April 21. Total holdings also rose to 97.3 million ounces, the highest level since June 23.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the past week was palladium, down 4.34%. Platinum also declined amid weaker economic data. Barrick reached an agreement with Newmont on their Nevada joint venture, with Newmont paying Barrick $1.95 billion as both companies contribute previously excluded properties, clearing the way for Barrick’s planned North American IPO. However, Bloomberg Intelligence views the $1.95 billion valuation of Barrick’s Fourmile project as potentially low given the asset’s quality. Barrick’s shares fell more than 5% for the week, while Newmont gained 4%.
• Pan American Silver reported adjusted EPS of $0.73, below CIBC’s estimate of $0.83 and the consensus estimate of $0.87. The earnings miss was primarily driven by higher-than-expected operating costs at La Colorada and increased withholding tax expenses, sending the shares down 7.5% for the week.
• Elliott Investment Management, which controls approximately 5.6% of Northern Star Resources, criticized the company’s proposed Board “renewal” process in a statement issued in response to Northern Star’s Aug. 13 letter. Elliott argued that the process gives incumbent directors control over who joins the Board, calling it “entrenchment” rather than genuine renewal.

Opportunities

• Fortuna Mining agreed to acquire the Bambadji gold exploration project in Senegal from Barrick Mining and IAMGOLD for $200 million in cash, according to Bloomberg. Fortuna will pay $130.4 million to Barrick and $69.7 million to IAMGOLD, expanding its exploration portfolio and gold exposure in West Africa. Newmont also entered into an earn-in agreement with Headwater Gold for the Jupiter Project, a potentially district-scale epithermal gold project in Nevada’s southern Walker Lane belt.
• CME Group plans to launch 24/7 trading for its 100-ounce silver futures contract starting Sept. 11, pending regulatory approval, according to Bloomberg. The move targets growing retail demand for around-the-clock access to precious metals and could broaden market participation and liquidity. Meanwhile, Nomura’s international wealth management business launched a physical gold trading platform in Singapore, offering large gold bars to wealth clients, according to Bloomberg.
• Gold has cleared its first key resistance level at $4,300, according to technical analysts, with $4,500 now the next major threshold. A sustained move above $4,500 could signal a bullish breakout and reverse the recent bearish trend.

Threats

• Bloomberg’s MLIV blog noted that silver appears overvalued relative to gold after surging 14% in August, compared with gold’s 9% gain. The rapid rally suggests silver could be approaching a short-term peak.
• According to RBC, G Mining reiterated its production targets but raised its annual cost guidance by 7%, reflecting continued cost pressures. The increase is being driven by a stronger Brazilian real, labor cost inflation, higher maintenance spending and a higher assumed gold price of $4,300 per ounce, up from $4,000 previously. Rising costs are beginning to weigh on earnings growth.
• Russia has secured continued access to two key military bases in Syria under an agreement with the country’s new leadership, including Hmeimim airfield, which will remain a transit hub for Kremlin operations in Africa, according to Bloomberg. The agreement preserves Russia’s strategic reach into the continent and could strengthen its influence in gold-rich West Africa, potentially increasing geopolitical and regulatory risks for Western mining companies operating in the region.

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