A Look at Gold & Silver Mining in the Market
Again, for the third week, the Dow Jones saw no new all-time highs in its BEV chart below. The last time the Dow Jones made a BEV Zero was on August 5th. Not every day in a market advance, close at a new all-time high. Most days in an advance close in what I call scoring position, between a BEV of -0.01% to -4.99%, inside the red rectangle seen below. This being so, as long as the Dow Jones remains inside scoring position, we should assume new all-time highs are pending. And so I do.
Dow Jones closing above 60,000 sometime in the next six months? Nothing I see in my technical work suggesting that isn’t going to happen. Yet, this is an advance that began in November 2023. Almost three years ago, making this advance a very mature advance, and no advance goes on forever. 60K for the Dow Jones isn’t written in stone.
What could ruin this party on Wall Street, is rising bond yields, and a big increase in daily volatility for the Dow Jones. Should (when) we begin seeing regular, big daily moves, to both the up, and downside, daily Dow Jones moves larger than 2% from their previous day’s close, that would be a solid signal this party is over. We are not there, yet.
And this party has gone on for a long time, as seen above. The first new all-time high for this advance was long ago. Way back on 03 November 1982, where for the first time in the Dow Jones Bear’s Eye View chart above, the Dow Jones closed on its red, BEV 0.00% line above.
As seen in the BEV Frequency Distribution Table below, of the BEV data plotted above, so far in this advance, the Dow Jones has seen 921 BEV Zeros / new all-time highs. 7.51% of all daily closes for the past 48 years, have been at a new all-time high. That is a lot! Daily closes in scoring position, as seen in this table’s -0.001% row, have been 4,887, or 39.85% of all daily closes for the past 48 years. Again – that is a lot!
Add these two percentages together, to learn how long the Dow Jones has been advancing since November 1982, and we see the Dow Jones has been actively advancing in a bull market, for 47.36% of all daily closings, going on now for its fifth decade. An advance that took the Dow Jones from 1,065.49 on 03 November 1982, to 54,349.00 on August 5th of this year. That’s an increase by a factor of 51.
The depressing thing about that for me is, this gain is only because of the flows of monetary inflation, “liquidity” flowing from the FOMC. It’s a bubble, and all inflationary bubbles eventually go POP. Especially, a massive inflationary bubble seen in the charts above, and table below.
The Dow Jones in daily bars is posted below. This week, the Dow Jones did nothing for the bulls, or the bears. Looking back at the Dow Jones in the chart below, not since March has the Dow Jones provided so little, in the way of market movement, from one day to the next. This won’t go on for long.
It wasn’t only the Dow Jones that failed to make a new BEV Zeros in the past few weeks. In the table below, listing BEV values for the major market indexes I follow, none of these indexes have seen a new all-time high for two weeks now. This isn’t a reason to jump out of a perfectly good airplane, not yet anyway. Not when most of these indexes have remained in scoring position, within 5% of their last all-time highs, since the market’s correction of last March / April.
This week closed with sixteen of these indexes in scoring position. Looking at the broad stock market, as Mr Bear does, as long as these indexes remain in scoring position, within 5% of their last all-time highs, we must assume new all-time highs (BEV Zeros) are pending.
Look at the XAU below (#20). On Tuesday, it closes with a BEV of -7.29%, only 7.29% below its last all-time high. That is amazing when one considers the XAU on July 20th, a month ago, closed with a BEV of -37.41%. The gold and silver miners are on fire, and most investors don’t know, or care, making this a great time to be a buyer of precious metal mining companies!
In the performance tables above, precious metal assets remain at the bottom, but have made good progress trending towards the top, since their lows of a month ago.
The gold and silver miners (XAU), have really been the standout stock index for this market in the past year. So, this week let’s spend some time to study them.
Below is a graphic plotting the XAU since December 1983, when the XAU first began trading at the Philadelphia’s Options Exchange. For options speculators, the XAU was great as it was so volatile. For investors, seeking long-term rewards, the gold and silver miners in the XAU proved to be real stinkers from December 1983, to August of last year. But then something changed last August, as seen below.
Exactly what changed, I don’t know. I like thinking the smart money began seeing real value in the XAU, something the broad market no longer offered – value. So, forward thinking investors began shifting their money away from stocks and bonds, into the gold and silver miners. If so, the smart money has once again been well rewarded.
One thing I believe will prove to be true, the next 43 years for the XAU, won’t look anything like their past 43 years.
The chart above is the Bear’s Eye View for the XAU, going back to December 1983. It’s the same data as seen in the top chart. But instead of plotting the XAU in the dollars it is published in, it’s the XAU as Mr Bear sees it;
- daily closes at a new all-time high = 0%,
- daily closes * NOT * at a new all-time high = negative percentage claw-back from their last all-time high.
In other words, the Bear’s Eye View compresses price data into a range of 100 possible percentage points, with 0% being a new all-time high, and -100% a total wipeout in valuation.
So, as Mr Bear sees the XAU; on 02 February 1984, when the XAU closed at 116.02, a new all-time high, is no different from the 470.37 seen on 27 February 2026, the latest all-time high for the XAU. To Mr Bear, each, and every new all-time high is worth only a Big Fat Zero to him – 0%, a BEV Zero.
What Mr Bear focuses on, are the percentage claw-backs from each new all-time high. That is exactly what is plotted above for the XAU; new all-time highs, and the percentage claw-back from each of them.
Let’s compare the performance of the XAU to the Dow Jones, using the Bear’s Eye View, from December 1983 to today in the BEV Frequency Distribution Tables below.
The tables above sum up the situation for the XAU and the Dow Jones, since December 1983. The Dow Jones was advancing towards new all-time highs, for 51.46% of its 10,755 NYSE trading sessions since December 1983. The XAU was pushing towards new all-time highs for only 3.73% of its 10,757 trading sessions at the Philadelphia’s Options Exchange’s trading.
Also, since December 1983, the Dow Jones has never seen a daily close deeper than 55% below a last all-time high, even during the sub-prime mortgage debacle. For the XAU, since December 1983, 25.96% of all of its daily closings were 55%, and much more, below their last all-time highs.
Good Grief! No wonder to this day, the gold and silver miners are neglected and ignored by most professional money managers, and individual investors. This makes August 2026, a historic opportunity to get in early, into a massive market advance, that should go on for many years to come.
In gold’s BEV chart below, this week gold saw a pull back from its BEV -15% line, back towards its BEV -20% line. Following a three-week bounce from a correction low of 27%, this is something expected. With the understanding that in the weeks to come, gold once again resumes its advance towards its next new all-time high. Which I’m expecting to happen in the weeks, or months to come.
This is something very unusual. Gold and the Dow Jones typically are counter-cyclical to each other; when one is advancing, the other is in a decline – typically. But if you compare gold’s BEV chart below, with the Dow Jones BEV chart above, both entered into scoring position in November 2023, both having been in a bull market advance since.
Since November 2023, the Dow Jones has made 98 new all-time highs, while gold below has made 100 new all-time highs. The 27% correction seen below, is best thought as a correction to an advance that began almost three years ago, an advance I believe has much more to go to the upside.
Here is silver’s BEV chart. Last October, silver made its first BEV Zero, since January 1980, a forty-five-year gap between new all-time highs. That’s odd. What else trading in the market, or even at the grocery store, was selling at a price below where it was in January 1980? Nothing but silver, as far as I can think of.
Here is another oddity seen in silver’s BEV chart above; in silver’s current market correction of 53% from its last all-time high, 40% of that 53%, took place in the first six days of the correction. One day silver closed at a new all-time high. Six days later its price declined by 40%. That was very odd.
Here is silver plotted in dollars below. Like the XAU, silver also broke out of a decades long trading range last year, where $50 silver was a very hard ceiling. In silver’s correction, the bears must have sought to have silver once again trade below $50. The closest they go to that was $55.52 on July 16th. Silver closed this week at $69.25, hopefully on its way to a new all-time high sometime this year.
Gold in its step sum table below (below the next chart) saw its 15-count increase to a +7, making gold an overbought market. Markets don’t like being overbought. So, I’m not surprised seeing gold close down on the last three trading days this week. On Friday, gold was down 3.32% ($153) from Thursday’s close, making Friday a day-of-extreme volatility, a 3% day for gold.
Days-of-extreme volatility are * NEVER * good for the Dow Jones, but they can be for gold and silver. So far for 2026, gold has seen 23 days-of-extreme volatility. A volume of 3% days not seen since the early 1980s, and 2026 still has four months to go, see chart below.
The way days-of-extreme volatility work for gold and silver is, a spike in them can be bearish, or bullish. A spike in extreme days for gold and silver, only tells us something big is happening in the market; big flows of money coming into, or out of the market. Whether that something is bearish or bullish, we have to look at the market itself.
For gold, it has been in bull market advance since it entered into scoring position in November 2023. Seeing gold’s days of extreme volatility spike in 2026, suggests to me, gold will soon enter an accelerate period of new all-time highs, because money is flowing into the gold market.
Really, is that so? That is how I understand this spike in 3% days in gold for 2026. I trust in the not to distance future, gold will increase in price, to confirm this conjecture of mine. Hopefully, by the time I write my next article in mid-September.
The Dow Jones is seeing declining days, overwhelm daily advances, since its last all-time high on August 5th. But with the Dow Jones closing the week with a BEV of only -1.46%, so far, these daily declines are not having much of an effect on the Dow Jones.
Its daily volatility’s 200D M/A closed the week with a 0.64%, chart below. Such low daily volatility, strongly suggests the stock market isn’t considering a market crash anytime soon.
Until daily volatility for the Dow Jones in the chart above begins trending up to its 1.00% line, a close above its 0.75% line sounds about right, I’m still game for Dow Jones to rise above 60K in the not to distance future, as obscene as that sounds to me.
Obscene because 60,000 for the Dow Jones is only a grotesque, inflationary bubble, imposed on the stock market by people who know exactly what they are doing, and the consequences for hundreds-of-millions of people when their bubble someday finally pops. That’s right, the idiots at the FOMC. Yep, I really don’t like those guys!
God willing, I’ll be back on the weekend of September 18th.
Mark J. Lundeen
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