The Markets are Coming Back
Being Passover, and Easter week, trading this week ended on Thursday, with Friday a national holiday. It was a shortened trading week. Still, I think a key one, as last Friday in the BEV chart below, the Dow Jones closed at its current low of the move, with a BEV of -10.01% - a 10% correction. Then came this week, and the Dow Jones bounced off its BEV -10% line, closing the week half way between its BEV -5%, and -10% lines.
What happens now? If in the weeks to come, the Dow Jones once again begins shedding market valuation, and closes below its BEV 10% line, this market correction obviously has more to go, both in terms of time and points. But if in the next few weeks, the Dow Jones closes above its BEV -5% line in its BEV chart below, it has an excellent chance of trading above 50,000, and additional new all-time highs before June, or even before May arrives.
Which option is most likely? With daily volatility remaining very low, I remain short-term bullish. So, I’m expecting additional all-time highs come this summer. But should the Dow Jones begin to see multiple 2% days in the coming weeks, I will have to change my views on the stock market.
But what about Trump’s “war-of-aggression,” as some of my readers have called it, against Iran’s Islamic State? Shouldn’t that have negative implications on America’s financial markets? Seeing the Dow Jones down only to its BEV 10% line since the bombing began over a month ago, and now on the rebound, is proof so far it hasn’t.
And this “War-of-Aggression” against the Ayatollahs is receiving the full support of all the nations in the Persian Gulf, if not America’s gender-confused college students, members of Antifa, and our NATO Allies. Geeze Louise, bombing Iran has actually brought together the oil states of the Persian Gulf, and Israel. Do you understand that?
In the Middle-East, everyone hated Iran’s Ayatollah, and aren’t sorry seeing Israel, and the US Air Force bomb the Islamic Republic back into the stone age. Unless they are terrorists, who in the process are of losing their patron.
The World without Iran’s Islamic Republic, stirring up trouble everywhere it can, just may be enough to drive the Dow Jones above 60K, before 2026 turns into 2027.
Anyway, looking at the news, expecting it to assist someone to anticipating future market trends, is problematic. Looking at the market, to anticipate how current-global events will resolve themselves, is usually better. And right now, with the Dow Jones rebounding off its so far low of the correction; a BEV of -10.01%, seen last Friday, I expect, if not predict in months to come, President Trump will be greatly revered by much of the world, if not in America’s main-stream media, and those who suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS).
Let’s take a look at the Dow Jones in its daily bars below. Since the Dow Jones’ last all-time high on February 10th, it corrected to its BEV -10% line at the close of last week. Then came this week, where we saw a very nice bounce off the BEV -10% line.
I’m not someone who can see into the future. My readers’ guess of what is going to happen in the weeks and months to come, is as good, maybe better than mine. But looking at the Dow Jones at the end of this week, in its BEV chart above, and daily bar chart below, I’m feeling pretty good about the prospects for the markets, and ultimately a favorable outcome for the war on Iran’s Islamic Republic.
Here is my table listing the BEV values for the major market indexes I follow. As this week had only four trading days, we see last Friday’s data where Monday is usually posted. Last Friday had only one index in scoring position, within 5% of its last all-time high, the Dow Jones Utility Average. Everything else, except one, saw market declines from their last all-time highs, in excess of 7%. The last nine of the items were over 10% from their last all-time high.
Now we see this week’s close, with five indexes closing in scoring position, and only nine indexes down by over 7% from their last all-time highs, which included the Dow Jones at #11 in the table. For the bulls, this week was a very good week.
Look at who is Tail-End Charlie in the table? The XAU sits at #20 below. A month ago, the XAU was making new all-time highs, and now it is sitting at the bottom. Is this something to freak-out about, a reason to press the panic sell button for the gold and silver miners?
I don’t think so. Like silver, the gold and silver miners have always been very volatile, markets that see large daily swings in valuation. They just do. For instance, at this week’s close, all the indexes seen below are up by 2% or 3% from last Friday. But I note, as seen below, the XAU this week advanced by 7.22% from last Friday’s close, nothing else came close to it.
Be patient. Holding on to your gold and silver stocks will ultimately be very rewarding in 2026.
In the performance tables above, everything advanced this week, but nothing like the gains gold, silver and the XAU saw. If an investor wants to ride the bull, they must learn how to stay on, and not let the bull buck them off of its back every time the market sees a correction.
If someone is determined to find a stock group to hate, instead of the gold and silver miners, can I recommend the banking stocks, a stock group that prospered during the sub-prime mortgage bubble, but hasn’t fully recovered in the twenty years since.
During the sub-prime mortgage crash, they deflated below their BEV -65% line in the chart below. With Doctor Bernanke’s QE #1-3, they reflated their market valuations, until the March 2020 Flash Crash, where they deflated below their BEV -50% line.
But when FOMC Idiot Primate; Powell, “injected” his multi-trillion dollar, Not QE#4 into the financial system to “stabilize market valuations,” once again the banking stocks saw their market valuations inflate, until they saw their last all-time high in November 2021.
They then broke below their BEV -50% line, saw their valuation cut in half, for the second time in less than three years, when some banks in California had runs on them in May 2023. Since then, they’ve advanced, but not to a new all-time high.
Looking at the market action of this group since May 2023, it seems investment funds have for the most part have chosen to avoid them. This sounds like good investment advice to me; sell the banks, buy the gold and silver miners.
Let’s look at gold’s BEV chart below. Like the Dow Jones, gold has been correcting since February, almost breaking below its BEV -20% line. But that was last week. This week, gold has rebounded, closing the week above its BEV -15% line. No market ever goes straight up, or down, from an all-time high to a correction bottom, or from a correction bottom, to a new all-time high.
So, if gold is destined to see additional new all-time highs in the months to come, there will be down days, and down weeks between here, and there. That is just the way it is. Looking at the gold market as a bull market, gold’s BEV chart below, looks very positive for us bulls.
Daily volatility for gold continues to rise, because so far in 2026, gold continues generating days of extreme volatility, days where gold moves in excess of +/- 3% from a previous day’s close, which is bullish. As seen below, this week closed with gold’s daily volatility’s 200D M/A, at 1.20%.
Let’s look at silver’s BEV chart below. From its last all-time high of January 28th ($118.45), silver’s valuation was cut by 40% by last week. A two month decline from $118.45 to $68.19 – ouch! Give silver some time, and we’ll get that all back, and then some.
Let’s now look at the XAU’s BEV chart. The XAU closed below its BEV -30% line on March 20th, but this week closed above its BEV -20% line. A very nice rebound in the XAU.
I realize the 2026 corrections in silver, and the XAU have been significant. But they must be taken in context of the gains they’ve seen from May 2025 to early 2026, as seen below. Gold, silver and the XAU, month after month, only went up – a lot.
Here is the XAU. For decades, the XAU did nothing much. Then beginning last May, it just took off, from 175 to 475, an advance of 171% in less than a year! Currently, it is correcting this astounding advance, retreating back to 325 just two weeks ago, to then close this week at 387.15. A 19% advance in only eight trading sessions! Look, the XAU has earned not one, but two exclamation points in only one paragraph.
The story for gold and silver bullion, seen below, is the same as for the XAU above.
These tremendous gains at some point had to be corrected; halted, and then suffer a sharp reversal in trend. Which is happening right now, and is completely normal and expected. If someone has any money on the sideline, April 2026 is an opportunity to buy precious metal assets, not sell.
Gold in its step sum table below, endured a brutal selling episode, which took its 15-count from a +9, to a -9 in only sixteen trading sessions. Such a drastic decline in a 15-count is a rare market event, one that I believe has left the bears exhausted. Yet for all that, the bears failed to drive gold down below its BEV -20% line.
But those were the bad old days. Now, gold is once again seeing daily advances overwhelm daily declines. And these daily advances, are having a positive impact on the price of gold too. There is good reason to believe the bottom of the correction was hit on March 26th, and gold will see much better days, in the weeks and months to come.
On the Dow Jones side of the table, like gold, it too has seen no shortage of daily declines, though not a collapse in its 15-count, as gold saw. And after all that, as Iran’s Islamic Republic was being bombed without mercy by the United States and Israel, the bears could only get the Dow Jones to deflate to just its BEV 10% line, on March 27th.
Note too; Dow Jones daily volatility’s 200D M/A, this week closed at 0.59%, very low volatility, which is very bullish for the stock market. But realize that such low volatility, is also the hallmark of a market top.
Well, for those who remain eager to gather the scraps the stock market is reserving for its latter-day bulls, until the Dow Jones once again see its dreaded 2% days, days the Dow Jones moves +/- 2%, and more from a previous day’s close, I think you’re safe. But if you’re in the market to make money, I believe there are much better opportunities to do so in gold and silver bullion, as well as in precious metal mining.
I like following the markets. I’ve committed many years collecting data, and studying it, hopefully to anticipate future market events. As far as profiting from what I’ve learned, I’ve could have done better. However, I haven’t done all that bad. Living modestly, I have no debt. I can pay my bills. And I get to smell a few roses every now and then. These are things many people my age can’t say are true for them.
But I’m an old guy now, someone who knows he is much closer to his tomb, than to his mother’s womb. This is the way of all flesh. I recall an epitaph from a 14th century grave, for a knight from the One-Hundred-Years War, as quoted from Barbara Tuchman’s; A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century.
How depressing, because this is true! This makes me wonder, what has my life been all about? Atheists would say, sighting science, that ultimately everyone’s life is about nothing – Wow! I find that very hard to believe. What I find easy to believe is, any society whose social and political elite become Godless, will soon discover how cheap life can become.
This week, Passover was on Thursday, and Easter on Sunday. It seems appropriate I mention this, that these two historical events;
- Passover, when the Lord sent Moses to free the House of Isreal from Egyption slavery,
- And Easter, with the resurrection of Jesus, humanity was freed from death,
happened this week.
I like Passover and Easter, as they are annual reminders that there is a God, and that my life does have a purpose; to serve him to the bests of my abilities. And that the creator of the universe personally knows me, and one day, I will spend eternity with him.
When I go outside, I frequently look up. It’s become a habit with me, to enjoy a moment of looking at whatever clouds may be in the sky, or if a bird of prey, a hawk or eagle is on the wing, high above me. After all these years, at night, seeing the stars of Orion, or of Cassiopeia, the planets; Venus, Mars, and Jupiter still inspire awe in me. What a wonderful world I live in, and thank you Lord for allowing me to enjoy it, hopefully in good health, for a few more years.
The James-Webb Space Telescope is an amazing engineering achievement for mankind. It was supposed to have been an amazing achievement for astrophysics too. And it was. But then again ---. Well, it’s complicated.
For many decades, science gazed into space, theorizing what could, and what could not be there. Data from the James-Webb Telescope, was supposed to have confirmed the many theories, devised after many decades; to finally close the books on what science already knew about the cosmos. Before the James-Webb Telescope was sent into space, academics earned Ph.Ds., writing turgid monographs on the early universe, on what is, and what is not at the edge of the observable universe, and everything in between here and there.
But within a few months of the James Webb sending data down from orbit, a lot of what “science” believed was true of the cosmos, seemed inconsistent with what was streaming down from space. There were, and still are no shortages of moments of; what in the hell is that? And, what is that doing there?
Many years ago, in the 1970s, I read somewhere that animals never look up to the sky in wonder. Small mammals and birds may look up, searching to see if a hawk is flying above them, but they never waste their time peering at the moon, or the stars.
Biologists and anthropologists wonder; what key feature separates humans from the beasts of the fields? Language? Our fabrication of tools, and the use of them? We still don’t know what they are saying, but biologists now believed verbal communication is a common trait of whales swimming in the ocean, and apes fashion tools for gathering insects to eat. Does that make them human?
So, what does separate humanity from the beasts of the fields? I find the answer to that question, not from science, but from the Bible.
“Educated people,” people who believe in science, typically are dismissive of using the Bible to justify much of anything. Using it to identify the distinction between apes and man is embarrassing. But in 2026, especially after the launch of the James-Webb Telescope, science too has plenty to be embarrassed about.
Science knows for a fact, that the universe is not infinitely old. The Second Law of Thermodynamics doesn’t allow the universe to be infinitely old. If it was, after the infinite number of years the universe has already existed, the temperature of the entire universe would be the same everywhere in it. There would be no stars radiating energy into the coldness of space. There would be no you or me, wondering what life is all about.
If the universe isn’t infinitely old, it must have a beginning, which is explained as the Big Bang. But the Big Bang began as a singularity, an object whose gravity is infinitely great, whose area is infinitely small. In other words; a singularity is a mathematical concept that contains no space, none.
Yet, science expects us to believe all we see around us, and from the James-Webb Telescope, vast galaxies, and everything else, including time and space, came from the nothing known as the Big Bang. It may have. I don’t know, as I wasn’t there when the Big Bang went boom. But the Law of Conservation of Matter, prohibits something coming from nothing. So, what does science really know about creation?
At a core level, believers of science are no better off than believers of the Bible. They too must accept as an act of faith; that something can come from nothing, as a fundamental basis of their understanding of the world they live in.
The Bible does offer its believers things that requires no faith to believe in. That God has given the Jews (His people) the land of Israel (His Land). Why this is believable, is because God had his prophets, from thousands of years ago, prophesize that if the Jews didn’t live as God wanted them to, he would exile them from his land, but would eventually return them to it.
In the bronze age, Israel was a little people, living on a little land, compared to the great ethnic empires of the time: The Egyptian, Hittites, Assyrians, and Babylonians. Then came the Persian Empire, the Greek Empire of Alexander the Great, followed by Rome.
For over a thousand years, history records Israel’s interactions with these massive, but now long-gone Empires. Jeremiah prophesized that the Jews would be banished to Babylon for seventy years. Isaiah prophesized the Jews would return from their Babylonian exile, by Cyrus the Great of Persia. Calling out Israel’s liberator by name, over one hundred years before he was born. That happened. The Roman Emperor Hadrian, around 130AD, banished the Jews from Judah, they could live anywhere else, but in the land of Israel, under penalty of death.
Still the Jews endured, and often flourished, exiles from their land in Israel for the best part of two thousand years. Then came Hitler and his Nazis, who worked hard to murder every Jew they could get their hands on. Three years following the downfall of Nazi Germany, for the first time in two thousand years, as prophesized below, the nation, and country of Israel was reborn in 1948.
The prophecy of Amos above is interesting, as he made it before the Northern Kingdom of Israel was taken into captivity by the Assyrians, hundreds of years before the Babylonians took Judah to Babylon. What is someone to do with that, after reading what the Bible has been saying for thousands of years?
Speaking for myself, I’m not going to morn for the Iranian Islamic Republic, or their proxies Hamas or Hezbollah, every time the IDF bombs them. Because they want to finish the job Hitler started, and I’m not for that. The Jews are back in their historical land, and no one is going to push them out, ever again.
This is something very politically incorrect to say. But I don’t care, it needs to be said. So, here this gentile stands, on the week of Passover and Easter.
Mark J. Lundeen
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