Righteous Gold Stocks Glory
In an interview on Monday, Fidelity fund manager George Efstathopoulos said that gold investors are now less focused on yields rising, more on why they are rising, and he just doubled his fund’s exposure to gold.
I’ve emphatically suggested that mainstream media’s gold-rates narrative is imploding… and fund managers like Efstathopoulos are beginning to embrace the implosion as the new normal.
For America, it’s taken a long time, but 50 years of reckless global government spending combined with fiat and debt worship ordained the implosion.
To sum up the big picture in one chart:
US rates (and stagflation) began a new 40yr cycle in 2020… and what lies ahead is likely a $1000/oz gain for gold for each 1% rise in rates.
In the big picture, it doesn’t matter what happens with tomorrow’s PCE report or on Friday with Fed boss Kevin’s speech. What matters most is the US government’s refusal to cut its outrageous spending and horrifying debt.
To view another key US interest rate chart:
The Treasury’s attempt to stop lower long-term rates by buying the yen has failed. The bottom line: Institutional confidence in the Fed is on thin ice, and now confidence in the Treasury is tumbling too.
While a short-term pullback in rates is possible, the inverse H&S pattern suggests the next “pit stop” is 6%, and it likely coincides with $6000 gold.
While the big picture for gold is stellar, in the short term the latest mauling of fiat is overstretched… by both technical and sentiment measures.
Note the RSI oscillator at the top of the chart. It’s overbought, but it’s not a spike like it was at $5600, and nor has it been overbought for long. Stochastics is also overbought.
For a look at sentiment:
Mainstream media sounds a bit giddy. There’s clearly some sentiment-oriented froth in the market.
In a nutshell, the door is still open for a move to the big resistance zone of $4800-$5000, but a short-term pullback could see gold fall 5%-7%, with silver and GDX dipping by 10%-20%.
If that occurs, investors who failed to buy at my key $4100-$3900 zone will have a second chance to climb aboard this awesome gold bull era freight train.
Silver?
There’s good support for silver at $61-$63. Stochastics is overbought but RSI suggests silver could keep rallying in the short-term even if “Queen Gold” fades.
The current market is strong, and so partial profits need to be booked. In a nutshell, professionals sell into strength and amateurs try to call tops.
When an investor gets out at a top, are they a master trader… or did they just barely get out alive?
For a look at the miners:
GDX is up almost 50%... in about a month. That’s an annualized gain of about 600% a year and it’s not sustainable.
While GDX is likely going to $200, $500, and $1000 in the long term, this is a time for booking nice short-term gains… while holding core positions with an iron hand.
A daily focus on the big picture is critical for investors as inflation, tariffs, war, a wildly overvalued stock market, debt ceiling horror, and empire transition dominate the investing landscape. I cover this big picture 5-6 times a week in my flagship Galactic Updates newsletter. At $199/year, investors feel the price is too low, but I’m offering a $179/15mths “special offer” that investors can use to get in on the winning action and meticulous analysis. Click this link to get the offer or send me an email and I’ll get you a payment link. Thanks!
This is the gold stocks sentiment index. It’s not overbought, but RSI certainly is. As noted, this is a time for some modest profit booking.
A blowoff move into the overbought zone for the index would be likely if the Jackson Hole meet features numerous central banksters refusing to call out the government’s spending and debt obsession as the cause of rising rates.
That move could see gold reach $5000 and GDX surge to $110-$120. More profits should be booked if that occurs.
This GDX versus gold chart sums up the main reason to hold gold stock core positions with an iron hand; an Elliott “C” wave is barely underway.
The C wave is the most powerful of all Elliott waves and GDX is already on track to secure its highest monthly close against gold since 2012.
Most mutual fund managers are mandated to be almost 100% invested in equities all the time. As the government bond market continues to implode, the overvalued stock market will follow. Desperate to stay in equities that aren’t crashing, these money managers will turn to the miners. It’s clear that “righteous glory” awaits gold stock investors around the world!
Thanks!
Cheers
St
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Stewart Thomson
Galactic Updates
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Stewart Thomson is president of Graceland Investment Management (Cayman) Ltd. Stewart was a very good English literature student, which helped him develop a unique way of communicating his investment ideas. He developed the “PGEN”, which is a unique capital allocation program. It is designed to allow investors of any size to mimic the action of the banks. Stewart owns GU Trader, which is a unique gold futures/ETF trading service, which closes out all trades by 5pm each day. High net worth individuals around the world follow Stewart on a daily basis. Website: www.gracelandupdates.com.
