Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions
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Change | +0.27% | -0.15% | -0.28% | +1.25% | +6.65% |
Gold Price Forecasts - Analyst Predictions
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As mentioned in my last article back in February, Gold was in a correction phase - but was into bottoming territory, as represented by a key cycle that we noted at that time. That cycle ended up troughing with the February 14th tag of 1996.40, and with that should be headed higher into April - before another key top attempts to form.
Gold's 72-day Cycle
From the comments made some of my past articles, the next low of significance was expected to come from the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, our 72-day wave - which is shown again on the chart below:
This 72-day cycle component was projected to bottom into the late-January to mid- February region - as per the path suggested by our 72-day detrend indicator. Its actual bottom came in with the February 14th tag of 1996.40 (April, 2024 contract). This action was confirmed by taking out a key upside price reversal figure for Gold.
From my 2/18/24 article: "in terms of price, we have a key...
The next big surge in gold has started, and sub-$2000 pricing may be a thing of the past.
A $1 billion capital injection saved New York Community Bancorp mid-week; was that enough to arrest its decline?
Lagarde signals the ECB may cut rates in June, and Powell emphasizes cuts "at some point this year."
Banking Crisis Update
- Monday will mark the one-year anniversary of last year's banking crisis and collapse of SVB.
- This year New York Community Bank is center stage with a deeply underwater (rent controlled) loan book.
- Wednesday's panic ceased, for now, but if deposits flee (bank run), NYCB could be in deep trouble next week.
NYCB DAILY
New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) was down 45% intraday Wednesday as trading halted pending news. Thirty minutes earlier, NYCB announced it was seeking capital to shore up its balance sheet.
A $1 billion rescue package was announced around 2:30 PM, and prices rallied into the close. According to banking expert Chris Whalen, the $1...
More Gold Price Forecasts
Precious metals and miners toppled after huge gains in employment: January non-farm payrolls jumped 353,000 versus the expected 180,000. The Fed confirmed it was done hiking on Wednesday, but Powell pushed back on the potential for rate cuts.
The multi-week correction in precious metals and miners should terminate shortly. Once completed, we see gold surging above $2100 to new all-time highs. Precious metals typically rally in presidential election years – 2024 should be no different.
With the action seen over the past month, Gold has been locked inside an expected correction phase, with the U.S. stock market still inside a larger 'vacuum' period - one which will take us into the next 'kill zone' date for that market.
Gold mining companies are historically undervalued compared to gold itself. While there are never any guarantees in the investment world, should gold indeed break out to new all-time highs in 2024, the potential exists for a tremendous revaluation higher for the...
Gold is correcting as the dollar bounces - we see prices bottoming later this month. I've included preliminary price targets in the charts below. Record fund flows into the S&P 500 ETF support elevated complacency among investors, and multiple factors support a...
With the overall action in the markets, I wanted to take a look at the cyclical position of U.S. stocks this weekend, as well as to take a quick look at the picture for the Gold market - with the latter looking for additional weakness into early next year.
On Wednesday, the Fed confirmed they were done hiking rates - metals and miners jumped on the news. The pivot from tightening to loosening is precisely what gold needed to trigger the next big run. The gold train is leaving the station and the days of buying 1 ounce...
In October, the Conference Board LEI experienced its 19th consecutive monthly decline. This prolonged downturn, only surpassed during the 2008 and 1974 bear markets, strongly signals an impending recession.
With the new buying pressure following the Israel / Hamas war, combined with speculation that the US Federal Reserve may be done hiking interest rates in the near future, gold is preparing to break out from a major 4-year consolidation.
Gold Price Forecast FAQ
How do you forecast the price of gold?
Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst.
Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.
For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details.
What are the key factors for long term gold forecasts?
When forecasting what may happen to the price of gold longer term, there are many things to consider including economic trends, the impact of current and expected monetary policy, QE, debt monetization, and the aggregate impact on future currency valuation.
Does the price of gold go up when the stock market goes down?
The price of gold is often negatively correlated to the stock markets. When the markets go down, gold prices usually go up. However, this is not always true. Sometimes the price of gold and stocks both go up and down in unison. Fundamental factors play an important role and need to be carefully analyzed. Historically, however, the price of gold is not tied to the fluctuations of stock and bonds. This is one of the chief reasons when one should have gold in their portfolio – to protect the long-term value of your investments.
Does the value of the US dollar predict the price of gold?
As gold is traditionally quoted in US dollars, the price of gold is negatively correlated to the strength of the USD. The weaker the US dollar, the cheaper it is to purchase gold. Therefore, if economic factors predict a strengthening of the US dollar then this will tend to drop the price of gold, and vice-versa. According to the statistics (since 1973), the long-term correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the gold prices is -0.6 so this link is quite strong.
How do US interest rates impact future gold prices?
The level of US interest rates is an important driver of future gold prices. When investing in gold, the investor is faced with the opportunity cost of gold - a non-interest bearing asset. The higher the US interest rate for holding US dollars or investing in Treasuries, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold. It is more likely, therefore, that a rally in the price of gold will be forecasted the lower the US benchmark interest rate.