Gold Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key barrier ahead of Trump’s deadline to Iran
LONDON (April 7) Gold price (XAU/USD) trades higher to near $4,675.00, but is broadly sideways, during the European trading session on Tuesday. The yellow metal struggles for direction as investors remain cautious about how the Middle East war will flare after the completion of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s final deadline.
On Monday, US President Trump stated that Tuesday’s deadline is the final one and Iran “can be taken out in one night, and that might be tomorrow night”, if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth.Social, Iran’s civilian infrastructure would be obliterated if it does not reopen the Hormuz before Tuesday, 08:00 PM ET.
Ahead of Trump’s final deadline, Iran has stated that it won’t accept a temporary ceasefire. Tehran has demanded permanent peace, the guarantee of no repetitive aggression, and compensation for damages. It has also demanded recognition of Iran’s authority on the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has recovered its early losses, following Tehran’s denial of the US temporary ceasefire. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, turns flat around 100.00.
Going forward, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades marginally higher at around $4,675.00 at the press time. The near-term bias stays neutral with a mild bearish tilt as price holds below the declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which caps recovery attempts around the $4,720 area. The recent sequence of lower closes from above $5,300 into the current region underscores persistent downside pressure, even as selling momentum cools.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45 remains below the 50 midline, indicating subdued bullish conviction and keeping focus on whether buyers can regain traction above the short-term average.
Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near $4,720, followed by the recent rebound high around $4,800, where a sustained break would open the way toward the $4,870 region as a stronger upside target. On the downside, immediate support is located at the April 2 low of $4,554, with a breakdown exposing the next bearish objective at $4,490 and then the $4,410 area. A daily close back above $4,720 would ease downside pressure, while a move below $4,650 would confirm continuation of the broader corrective phase.
FXStreet
