Fresh polls show Brexit vote swinging back to ‘remain’

London (Jun 7)  A couple of new polls signal that the race between U.K. voters who want to stay in the European Union and those who want out could go right down to the finish.

The polls show a slight lead to “remain,” in contrast to surveys released in the days before, which suggested a swing to “leave” may have occurred.

A Daily Telegraph/ORB poll published late Monday put support for retaining EU membership at 48%, versus 47% for those wanting a Brexit, among those who intend to vote.

Meanwhile, a Times/YouGov poll out Monday found 43% of respondents planning to vote to stay, while 42% support a departure, and 11% are “don’t know.”

That poll, conducted June 4 and 5, delivered different results from a YouGov survey for ITV carried on June 1 to 3, which put support for “leave” in front, with 45% of respondents versus 41% for “remain.”

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“It’s possible that last week’s polls were a short term movement caused by new immigration figures and the issue of immigration being in the news, and now the agenda has moved on again the Remain vote is recovering,” Anthony Wells, director in YouGov’s political and social research team, said in a blog post.

“For most of the campaign so far, our regular polls have shown little movement, with just normal volatility around a race that appears to be neck-and-neck,” he added.

The apparent shift back to “remain” boosted the British pound GBPUSD, +0.9349%  against major crosses on Tuesday. The earlier polls took a heavy toll on sterling Monday, pushing the pound to a three-week low.

Campaigners have been ramping up efforts to sway voters ahead of the in/out referendum on June 23, which will decide whether the U.K. should withdraw from membership of the bloc.

Source: MarketWatch