Gold Prices Steady On UK Election Risk; ECB Meeting And Geopolitical Risk

June 8, 2017

Gold prices could see strong intraday volatility – analyst
* UK election, Ex-FBI director testimony, ECB meeting set for later in the day
* Downside for gold is “limited” (especially in sterling)

Gold held steady on Thursday as investors awaited cues on market direction amid a number of geopolitical events later in the day that could boost the safe-haven demand for the metal.

Gold prices in UK sterling

Polling has started in the UK national elections, while the European Central Bank (ECB) may discuss dropping additional stimulus pledges at a meeting later and former United States Federal Bureau of Investigation director James Comey will testify before the U.S. Congress about his interactions with President Donald Trump later in the day.

“Unless there is a major surprise today and the Labor Party gets up over the Conservatives, I doubt there will be much reaction to gold price from the UK election. The market has already priced this,” said Cameron Alexander, an analyst with Thomson Reuters-owned metals consultancy GFMS.

“A more bullish forecast (from ECB meeting) is likely to lead to a movement away from gold to higher-yielding assets, although any move will be modest.”

Spot gold was nearly flat at $1,285.91 per ounce, as of 0809 GMT.  U.S. gold futures for August delivery dipped 0.4 percent to $1,288.20 an ounce.

“A lot of things are happening at the same time… There may be some kind of impact that may push up the volatility rather than the direction of price moves,” said Mark To, head of research at Hong Kong’s Wing Fung Financial Group.

The yellow metal fell from a near seven-month high on Wednesday after Comey’s written testimony to the U.S. Senate contained few surprises.

A final flurry of opinion polls gave British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party a lead between 5 and 12 percentage points over the main opposition Labour Party, suggesting she would increase her majority – but not win the landslide foreseen when she called the election seven weeks ago.

“With the (UK poll) results coming out during the Asian session on Friday morning, the downside for gold is likely to be limited as we run into the weekend,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Meanwhile, the ECB is likely to keep its easy monetary policy during its meeting as inflation remains below its target despite stronger economic growth in the euro zone.

In other precious metals, palladium gained as much as 0.7 percent to $840.10 an ounce. In the previous session, it hit the highest in nearly three years, but shed its early gains to end 2.3 percent lower. Platinum climbed 0.6 percent to $947.80 per ounce, and silver rose 0.5 percent to $17.63.

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Mark O'Byrne is executive and research director of www.GoldCore.com which he founded in 2003. GoldCore have become one of the leading gold brokers in the world and have over 4,000 clients in over 40 countries and with over $200 million in assets under management and storage.We offer mass affluent, HNW, UHNW and institutional investors including family offices, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bullion in London, Zurich, Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai and Perth. 

Gold is still being mined and refined at the rate of almost 2,600 tonnes per year.