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Manufacturing Activity In Europe Surprises To The Upside

CEO & Chief Investment Officer @ U.S. Global Investors
October 26, 2016

Manufacturing activity in the eurozone strengthened sharply in October, beating expectations, according to “flash,” or preliminary, purchasing manager’s index (PMI) data. The region is growing at its fastest pace so far this year, having climbed to its highest reading since April 2014.

The news follows positive September readings in emerging European countries that we track closely, an encouraging sign that the continent’s economy might finally be picking up steam after an extended period of sluggish growth.

Hungary, volatile as always, was the largest gainer last month, leaping ahead 5.3 points to a nearly three-year high. Historically, the Central European country has bumped up when the transport sector, which represents a big share of production, gets a new large order.

I’ve written numerous times on why we monitor PMI. Unlike gross domestic product (GDP), which is a backward-looking indicator, PMI gives us a foreshadowing of manufacturing activity three and six months out. This is important for investors because as manufacturing accelerates, so too does demand for commodities and natural resources, helping to support prices.

Not only do we like to see the monthly reading come in above 50—the threshold separating industry expansion from contraction—but it’s exceptionally positive when the reading appears above its three-month moving average.

This was the case for all countries except Greece and Turkey, both of which shrank slightly in September.

All in all, I’m encouraged by the eurozone’s positive October PMI, even if it is preliminary. Whether you like it or not, ours is a global economy, and it’s impossible for any country, even one as strong as the U.S., to do all the heavy lifting alone. What we need now is synchronized global growth, and this is definitely a step in the right direction.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

U.S. Global Investors, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). This does not mean that we are sponsored, recommended, or approved by the SEC, or that our abilities or qualifications in any respect have been passed upon by the SEC or any officer of the SEC.

This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product.

Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information. The information provided was current at the time of publication.

Courtesy of http://usfunds.com/

Frank Holmes is the CEO and Chief Investment Officer of U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes purchased a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors in 1989 and became the firm’s chief investment officer in 1999. Under his guidance, the company’s funds have received numerous awards and honors including more than two dozen Lipper Fund Awards and certificates. In 2006, Mr. Holmes was selected mining fund manager of the year by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of “The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing.” Mr. Holmes is engaged in a number of international philanthropies. He is a member of the President’s Circle and on the investment committee of the International Crisis Group, which works to resolve conflict around the world. He is also an advisor to the William J. Clinton Foundation on sustainable development in countries with resource-based economies. Mr. Holmes is a native of Toronto and is a graduate of the University of Western Ontario with a bachelor’s degree in economics. He is a former president and chairman of the Toronto Society of the Investment Dealers Association. Mr. Holmes is a much-sought-after keynote speaker at national and international investment conferences. He is also a regular commentator on the financial television networks CNBC, Bloomberg and Fox Business, and has been profiled by Fortune, Barron’s, The Financial Times and other publications.  Visit the U.S. Global Investors website at http://www.usfunds.com.  You can contact Frank at: [email protected].


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