It is my privilege now to welcome back David Smith, Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report and regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com. David, it's been too long. How are you my friend?
Gold Editorials & Commentary
October 24, 2018
Gold rallied yesterday, right before its turning point, and reversed its course before the end of the session. Precisely, even before the US session started. Miners reversed as well, after failing to move back above the late-2016 bottom.
The global economy carries debt of about $250 trillion, an impossible sum to repay, which suggests default, devastating inflation, and probably both.
As many of you reading this know, I’m what you would call a Tex-Can. I was born and raised in Canada, but I’ve called Texas home for nearly 30 years. I can’t picture U.S. Global Investors headquartered anywhere else, even after traveling to all parts of the country...
October 23, 2018
It was 31 years ago, on Oct. 19, that I watched a $300,000 stock portfolio begin to vaporize, with a Monday loss of 35% morphing into a 93% amputation by the end of the week, the remaining cash balance totaling slightly over $16,000.
As we have noted, markets are deep into what we have called the Tariff Trade based on the assumption that Trump would win his trade war with China and that he would do so before it had any serious negative impact on the U.S. economy. The Tariff Trade was to go long...
Is gold bullion, the “Queen of Assets”, breaking out to the upside from a beautiful pennant formation? Gold has formed an important double bottom pattern. After an initial breakout to the upside, there was a brief consolidation and that took the form of a pennant...
It’s important to keep in mind that the mining stocks have been sold to levels well-below their intrinsic value – in the case of larger-cap producing miners. Or their “optionality” value – in the case of junior mining companies with projects that have a good chance...
Only one digit has changed. But it may have profound consequences, sending the country closer to junk status. Meanwhile, Rome and Brussels clash over budget plan. Will that duel benefit or harm the yellow metal?
There is an age-old relationship between prices and interest rates that Keynesian economists have called a paradox (“Gibson’s Paradox”). The relationship was clearer during the Gold Standard era, but as I explained in a previous post it is still apparent if prices...
I have now been a contributor at Seeking Alpha for seven years, during which time I have written for approximately six years, as I took a one-year hiatus. And, during that time, I have had the honor of penning almost 400 articles.
The latest IMF Global Financial Stability report (released 10 October), highlighted an increase in the level of risk among multiple global metrics.
Long-term – on major sell signal. Short-term – on buy signals. Gold sector cycle is up. A tradable bottom is in place.
October 22, 2018
The outcome of the November 6th voting will be a big deal for investors, including gold and silver bugs. The metals, perhaps more than most other asset classes, are sensitive to geopolitics. Let’s break down what the potential voting outcomes might mean for the...
Hungary isn’t known today as one of the world’s top gold producing countries. There was a time, though, when it accounted for around three quarters of Europe’s entire output of the yellow metal, if you can believe it. According to historian Peter Sugar’s A History...
There were not many changes in gold, silver and mining stocks on Friday, and not much has changed in terms of the weekly closing prices either. Gold and gold stocks closed modestly higher, and silver was up by $0.01 last week (after declining $0.01 in the previous...
Huge recent imbalances in the gold futures market led many to predict that speculators (usually wrong at big turning points) would be forced to close out their historically extreme short bets. Put another way, too many traders were using gold futures contracts to...
This week spot gold held near its highest level since late July as holdings of gold-backed ETFs rose to the most since early September, according to Bloomberg. ETF holdings grew each of the last seven trading sessions, marking the longest run of gains since April....
Let’s continue to look at the fiasco in the franc. We say “fiasco”, because anyone in Switzerland who is trying to save for retirement has been put on a treadmill, which is now running backwards at –¾ mph (yes, miles per hour in keeping with our treadmill analogy)....
We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way...
The general investment public usually applies the same principles when they choose how and when to invest their hard-earned money. (And we wonder why the general public always gets caught holding the bag at the highs and selling at the lows?) And, much of these “...
October 21, 2018
After declining from 2940 to 2711 in its biggest correction since January, SPX rallied to 2817 before reversing and closing the week at 2768 -- all this in the span of three weeks. The question which is on every analyst’s mind is: “Has the bear market started?”
Large precious metals speculators strongly lifted their net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
Through the turn of the twentieth century, one of the so-called "common coins" here in Monaco was the 100 Franc Gold piece depicting the image of then Prince Albert Honoré Charles Grimaldi. Albert I was not as nearly beloved by his Monégasque subjects as is today's...
Extreme volatility (Dow Jones 2% Days) continues being a major feature in the market; Tuesday of this week saw the Dow Jones close 2.17% above the previous day’s close. Yes this was a big daily gain, but big daily percentage gains are events usually seen in bear...
October 20, 2018
In the last edition of the Market Overview, we have discussed whether gold investors should worry about the yield curve. Or should they keep their fingers crossed for its inversion? We concluded that not necessarily, as its predictive power has weakened and it doesn...
The bulls have worked hard since August to establish an intermediate-term bottom for gold. While they have largely succeeded in doing so, there is a reason for their failure to take advantage of record short interest and launch gold to higher levels. That reason is...
October 19, 2018
After falling from 1369 to 1167 in just four months, gold is attempting to rally now, having risen to a high of 1237 recently. But as I shared in my previous article: “There is significant resistance ahead that could stall gold’s rally, most notably 1244, the 38.2%...
The sentiment shift is still subtle, but it’s both real and widespread. After a few years of being ignored and/or dismissed as basically useless, gold is cool again, attracting positive comments in the media and increasing accumulation by big investors.
The gold miners’ stocks have been largely ignored and neglected for years. Speculators and investors wanted little to do with them for various reasons. But that apathetic sentiment is finally starting to shift thanks to last week’s stock-market plunge. Capital is...
