Earlier this year, I wrote an analysis suggesting that a major reversal was taking place in the precious metals markets. The central thesis of this argument rested on the changes in investor inflow activity that were becoming visible in several important exchange-...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
October 9, 2019
Precious metals prices have rallied in 2019 as global central banks reverse their policies of tightening and rate increases. And now even more rate cuts and restarted QE are on the way.
“Hello, my name is Jerome. I’m a central banker.” “Hello, my name is Janet. I’m a Keynesian.” “Hello, my name is Ben. I’m a monetizer.” “Hello, my name is Alan. I’m an inflationist.” “Hello, my name is Paul. I’m a central banker.”
It is led by institutions and funds, not private investors. Global quantitative easing created a huge and mobile pool of capital in constant need of a place to call home. As the need for a safe haven became apparent among the stewards of that capital, the demand for...
For reasons unknown, October has historically been the most volatile month for the stock market—by a goodly margin. Between 1950 and the end of 2017, the S&P 500 Index saw as many as 362 trading days during the month of October in which the market moved up or...
October 8, 2019
As the correction in gold stocks continues and as it’s likely to endure for the time being, we take a step back and share some tips for selecting individual junior gold companies.
If you look at the manufacturing data only, the relative strength of the jobs figures surprised. Another positive development were the upward revisions for August and July. The unemployment rate again dropped, this time to 3.5 percent. What will that mean for the...
We’re in uncharted territory. Never before have U.S. fiscal and monetary policy been leveraged so heavily to boost an economy that wasn’t even in recession. Something will break – and it could be the value of U.S. currency. The Federal Reserve Note now faces...
Our researchers believe the global concerns centered around Banking and Debt within the Emerging Markets and Asia/Europe are very likely to become major issues over the next 3+ months. These potentially dangerous issues could have far-reaching pricing ramifications...
China has added more than 100 tons of gold bullion bars to its gold reserves since it resumed buying in December; China’s gold holdings rose to 62.64m ounces in September, an increase of 190,000 ounces in one month.
I have been providing public analysis for the last eight years on many forums in addition to our main website Elliottwavetrader, which just celebrated its 8th anniversary. In fact, my first major public call in the market was when I suggested that the gold would...
October 7, 2019
Many believe that negative interest rates will never arrive to the United States. This can’t possibly happen here. The discussions of their theoretical benefits almost remind you of the not-in-my-backyard mentality. But this is not true – they are already present in...
The Federal Reserve’s recent need to supply $100’s of billions in new credit for the overnight repo market underscores the condition of dollar scarcity in the global financial system. This dearth of dollars and its concomitant strength has left most market watchers...
On October 4th, as I expected would happen, the Fed announced that it was extending its overnight and term repo operations out to November 26th (the November 12th two-week term repo matures on the 26th).
It seems one cannot make a name for one’s self on the Left, unless one has a proposal to tax wealth. Academics like Tomas Piketty have proposed it. And now the Democratic candidates for president in the US propose it too, while Jeremy Corbyn proposes it in the UK....
Gold and silver closed Friday’s session relatively unchanged, but mining stocks rallied to new October highs. This means changes, but not of the kind most investors would assume.
Gold is marginally lower today at $1,503/oz and stocks are mixed ahead of what are set to be tense U.S. and China trade negotiations.
After a plunge of 137 points to 2856 early in the week, SPX staged a strong two-day rally back to 2952 to end the week with a minor loss instead of something much larger, had the 40-week cycle continued to push prices lower. The question to ask is whether or not...
October 6, 2019
Starting and June and through the beginning of September, gold and silver prices were back in bullish mode. Gold rose to its highest price since 2013 and silver to its peak since 2016. The nearby gold futures contract traded up to a high at just under $1560 per...
Sometimes, it pays to be lucky and skilled when deploying technical analysis and price theory. We caught an early move in ERY back in June 2019 for a nice profit. Then watched as price fell back towards the $44 price level – expecting another base/bottom setup to...
This past week the Dow Jones saw some action in its BEV chart below, an almost 5% decline from a head and shoulder top formation. But since mid-week the Dow Jones recovered to just short of 3% from its last all-time high of last July at week’s close.
Yes, 'tis a double-entendre there, this missive's title: Gold's correction seeming "short" as brief and driven in part by those "short", (perhaps secretly trading in their briefs from undisclosed parental basements).
October 5, 2019
“Show me the data,” demand those who cannot see a recession forming all around them and who keep parroting what they are told about the economy being strong because it is what they want to believe; yet, the data look like an endless march through a long summer down...
Our proprietary cycle indicator is down. Gold sector is on major buy signal. GLD is on short-term sell signal. GDX is on short-term sell signal. XGD.to is on short-term sell signal.
October 4, 2019
It is my privilege now to welcome back Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig is a well-known name in the metals industry and runs one of the most highly respected websites in our space and provides some of the very best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of...
By now, everyone and their brother has heard about the yield curve inversion. How come it has inverted and how much should we read into it? Is it really such a reliable indicator of an upcoming recession? Let’s dig into the true causes behind the inversion and find...
You didn't actually think that a couple of indictments were going to change things, did you? By now you must understand that The Banks will continue to manage and rig prices until the time comes that it is no longer profitable for them to do so.
Here are today's videos and charts.
The gold miners’ stocks are correcting. They’ve been sliding and drifting lower on balance since their powerful recent upleg peaked a month ago. Corrections are normal and healthy in ongoing bull markets, rebalancing sentiment to pave the way for the next upleg...
This year at AOTH we have tackled a number of reasons for gold and silver’s rise, aiming to explain “in layman’s terms” what is behind the seemingly relentless move upward - despite the trend-busting reality of a high US dollar. We’ll get to that further down this...
