Those of you expecting me to don sackcloth and ashes, or its Y2K equivalent of bean or rice sack and ashes, are going to be sorely disappointed by this essay. For starters, if any gold-eagle.com readers ever thought that I would enjoy the kind of global chaos I predicted; or, would feel vindicated through the suffering of innocent people: that's your pathology and not mine. I am overjoyed that the kind of "catastrophic core infrastructure failures" have not occurred on a global basis. This is the reaction of any sane, reasonable and emotionally functioning human being. If the worst had happened on Y2K, do you think I would be writing a gloating essay? No, if you want Y2K gloat, you have to go to usenet's comp.sofware.year-2000 and read the sneering, arrogant "victory" rants of those who never took Y2K seriously. As for me, I'm relieved that my predictions for catastrophic failure have been proven wrong. I'm very glad that the Y2K potential of global collapse has been avoided so far and maybe permanently. It's better you think I'm a fool, than to be proven a prophet through human suffering.

The news media, whoring after respectability as usual, is still slanting the news. The implication that there is no Y2K effect is not factually correct. Also as usual, in FireSign Theater's words, there are "rumors behind the news". There have been numerous small "glitches" related to Y2K all over the world in the past 48 hours, but there has not been the systemic collapse that I so feared. The most serious "Y2K glitch" blinded a Pentagon spy satellite(it took out the ground analysis unit, and rendered the spy system useless). The thing I noticed about this one was that it was in an already tested and Y2K certified system. This was promptly reported as a Y2K failure to our Tootsie Pop President(sugar coated on the outside and hollow on the inside), amidst the decadent splendor of his Y2K party; then our esteemed Child King just as promptly lied when asked about whether there were any Y2K glitches. There was even a Secret Service Agent walking in on another White House sex party by the Prez's guests.

I just heard a radio soundbite of the Child King's New Years church proclamation where he talks about the "opportunity to serve the American People." Well, he could start by telling the truth, assuming he even understands the philosophical concept of right and wrong anymore. So, yes there was a fairly serious Pentagon Y2K glitch that directly affected military operations. And yes, the media downplayed the significance of this glitch, didn't challenge the child king when he lied about it and accepted the Pentagon's Hamre's vague explanation that it "didn't affect missile early launch detection systems." We don't know exactly what this "spy system" is since Hamre ain't saying. This being the same Hamre who assured us the DOD was ok. The man could resign, if he had any personal honor, for his lie. I can't prove it of course, but this "spy system" going down could have easily endangered American lives, or opened us up to a sneak attack. There I go being paranoid again. At any rate, the risk I certainly suggested in "Chinese First Strike", happened. There was a significant Y2K military failure in the United States. A significant military Y2K failure that was denied by the child king and his cronies. A significant military failure that threatened the United States. I'm reminded of Winston Churchhill and his comment about his experience as a war correspondent in South Africa's Boer War, "There is nothing so exciting as getting shot at with no result." The Hamre version is, "There is nothing as exciting as having a spy system go down and not getting nuked." Guess this DOD spy satellite wasn't listed in the mission critical inventory the second time around, eh Kossi the Klown?

There were also several nuclear plant problems that we're assured didn't affect plant safety. Three in Japan and several in the United States. Nothing major we're told, just stuff like whether you've been exposed to radiation or the security system didn't work right. Now why would a defective security system or not knowing if you'd been exposed to deadly levels of radiation be important class? But enough, at least they didn't blow up so I am grateful. The Finns are also grateful that all the iodide tablets they bought won't be needed just yet. Looks like I'm not the only one with a healthy paranoia about Y2K and nuclear plants. I also saw a news report on AP about the Ukraine's #2 Rivne nuclear power plant cutting power 50% because of "cavities in piping" and also to check out "bearing vibrations." This is not reassuring to me. I did print out an article about the African nation of Gambia having Y2K problems, which now is described as a hoax. There was also a hoax about IBM chartering planes to fly parts to Australia.

Still, despite my intuition on the Pentagon and Hamre, the fact remains, much to mine and many other peoples utter amazement, that there were no significant Y2K failures anywhere in the world. To repeat, this simply amazes and dumbfounds me, as well as a host of computer experts. Even De Jager, on December 31st, commented that he expected a "handful" of "catastrophic events". Yet, absolutely nothing catastrophic happened anywhere in the world as far as I can tell. Even the much maligned Russian electrical grid managed not to collapse. It's true it was switched to manual operation and so it's unclear what would have happened if it was left in computer mode. It's also unclear what will happen if the Russians go back to auto mode. This is among the many reasons that I'm not doing a victory jig just yet. However, to be fair, it must be stated that much of what I feared has not come to pass: i.e., the overseas core infrastructure failures, the paralysis of the global banking, transportation and communication systems. The big question in my mind is whether I should add a yet after hasn't happened. As far as embedded systems go, we should know within two weeks. The rest of the economy will take longer to determine whether Y2K termite bugs are chewing unseen. Time will tell.

When you are faced with a completely different result from what you expect and from what you think the evidence indicates; then, you must go back to the basics and ask why. Was Y2K all hype? Did I misread the evidence? Was the evidence flawed? These are the kind of questions that must now be asked. Not because I'm sitting up here, surrounded by my ammo and AK-47, sulking because global chaos didn't break out. Rather, I'm intellectually honest enough, unlike Kossi the Klown, the Child King and the media whores, to examine my beliefs in the light of current reality.

The first question relates to my premise. There was a Y2K problem in computers. In other words, my computer, now fixed with a patch, would not have been able to read 2000. Has the lack of global Y2K chaos changed this objective hypothesis? The answer is no it has not. It is an objective fact that the software code was broken. It was an objective fact that the computer hardware would not recognize the year 2000 unless fixed. This has not changed and I know of no one who says it has. So, my premise, and the premise of nearly every computer expert in the world, has not changed, or been proven incorrect by recent events.

The next statement is: does Y2K matter? This question is the foundation of scientific technique; namely, the hypothesis of Y2K. This one gets a little tricky. On December 31st I said that it would matter. It would matter all across the globe as the objective Y2K software code and hardware failures happened. I believed it. A host of computer experts believed it. And yet, absolutely nothing happened of consequence, with the exception of the United States spy system going down. Which leads me to the logical question: was the software code rewritten and the hardware replaced, or did the stuff just keep working regardless of not being repaired?

The reason this question is so interesting is this: There is no evidence that anyone overseas took Y2K very seriously and repaired either the code or replaced the hardware. There were some failures overseas, an oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey for instance, but the world hasn't collapsed. There have been numerous reports of Y2K "glitches" of varying degrees, intensity, duration, humor value and annoyance quotient. Some, like the $91,000 late video fee are funny. Others like the Logan Airport flight delays are very annoying and not even Y2K related. No matter though: for the next few weeks virtually any computer problem will be Y2K until proven otherwise. The list of "glitches" goes on and on. Literally dozens of them from all over the globe and involving a large variety of computer hardware and software. The question now is so what?

A legitimate question at this juncture in Y2K I think. The answer is as follows. The response is to ask what would have happened if the computer systems hadn't been repaired in the advanced countries. The answer is exactly what I predicted would have happened; namely, core infrastructure failures in critical public services. There is no doubt in my mind of this. I'm not at all sure I'd be writing this if the United States, and my electric company Pacific Power, had started their Y2K program in 1999 like Italy, done nothing like some countries, or switched to manual like Russia. I'm glad Italy or Russia didn't experience significant Y2K failures; I just wasn't willing to bet my personal ass on it. Was it worthwhile for me to store several weeks supply of food, water, sundries, cash and misc. stuff or not? The answer, as the tornadoes in Kentucky remind us is not only yes, but DAMN YES. Insurance plain and simple.

Sneer all you want. My survivalist tendencies predate Y2K by decades, nearly 30 years. In fact, I remember going into an Army Surplus store when I was 11 years old, 1965, and buying a silver can of US Navy drinking water. I learned two things from this experience. The first was the water was rust filled and undrinkable when I opened it, so it pays to check emergency supplies prior to an actual emergency. The second was that two verses of the Bible's book of Proverbs Chapter 21 verse 20 , "In the house of the wise are stores of choice food and oil, but a foolish man devours all he has" and Chapter 22 verse three, "A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it", became my motto. So if I seem unapologetic for any Y2K comments I wrote, or any emergency preparation advice I gave gold-eagle.com readers it's because I am. It's only in our modern fat times that the idea of being self reliant by storing food, water, sundries and other items needed for comfort and survival are viewed as strange. In all other times, this was considered the wise and prudent thing to do. So while I'm overjoyed that Y2K hasn't caused a global collapse, this doesn't mean I'm going to stop storing enough supplies to last me several weeks.

As for the charge that I mislead people, or was wrong, or crazy about Y2K I don't think so. I was dealing with potential events using the best available evidence that I could find. My advice was pretty mainstream and I'm a bit of a freethinker not willing to toe the company line. You'll recall that I specifically advised against buying gold one tenth ounces American Eagles because the premium was excessive. You'll recall that I even began one of my essays, "Lighten up on the Spikey headed cannibal mutants storming your fortified enclaves." This being why I'm somewhat surprised to be labeled a "Y2K doombrood extremist." Nope, if you listened to me you would be very well prepared for whatever life throws your way in this Y2K year. This being the effect of listening to me, a person would be self reliant, well stocked with basic life goods and able to help their neighbor. And for this I'm supposed to be ashamed, go crawl into a bunker and hide for several years in some form of Y2K atonement? Get real. But if you had listened to the media whores, Kossi the klown and the official voice of the company line, and things had gone badly, you'd be in a world of hurt. So I remain as impertinent, insolent towards authority and precocious as I've always been. There was one Y2K failure in South Korea you may not have heard about. It seems an apartment building had a central heating unit that suffered a Y2K failure and left 900 families without heat for several hours until it was fixed. This underscores the unexpected nature of Y2K, as in why an apartment heating unit chokes and the main power generating plant doesn't. At any rate, if these people had listened to me they would have fired up their battery powered camp lights, portable propane heaters and stoves and been just fine. If they had listened to Kossi the klown, they would have been uncomfortable for several hours. And if Y2K had been as bad as the evidence suggested it could have been, they would have died. Just a thought.